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ENVIRONMENT

Will Christmas trees be the next victim of France’s drought?

French Christmas tree growers are counting the cost as summer droughts have killed off tens of thousands of young trees.

Will Christmas trees be the next victim of France's drought?
Customers look at Christmas trees for sale outside the "O'Fleurs de Montmartre" florist in Paris in 2020. (Photo by ALAIN JOCARD / AFP)

France’s drought has had widespread impacts – with some villages even seeing their taps run dry.

Farmers have especially felt the impacts of this summer’s historic drought and heatwaves, as several industries, including French staples such as cheese production to wine have felt the affects – with Christmas tree growers also facing big losses.

Young fir trees (those that are under two years old) have been decimated by the drought, as their roots had not developed enough to dig deep enough to seek out water.

For Christian Colliette, a fir tree producer in Côte-d’Or, this will result in a significant loss in earnings. 

READ MORE: Fears for 2022 French wine vintages because of ‘stressed grapes’

Colliette told Franceinfo that losing the young trees will mean having to do “a lot of work over.” He explained to the French news site that “normally two-year-old trees have their roots more established and manage to resist. But with June temperatures that were close to 40C and a significant drought, conditions were not conducive for the plants to stay alive.”

He estimates that an entire generation of trees on his farm have been lost this summer – equivalent to about 20,000 plants. 

As a result, he and other Christmas tree producers will need to replace the lost trees. For Colliette, this will likely amount to at least €30,000 and lots of work digging new, deeper plots for the trees to hopefully remain alive.

This will not affect this festive season, as it will be the older trees (usually five years old or above) that are sold – though likely at a higher price due to inflation. 

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ENVIRONMENT

How likely are droughts and water restrictions in France in summer 2024?

Much of France has faced severe flooding this winter, but other areas already face water restrictions, and there's an extra variable in store global weather patterns play their part

How likely are droughts and water restrictions in France in summer 2024?

France’s Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) most recent report, in early March, revealed that the water table in France was ‘satisfactory over a large part of the country’, with levels above normal for the time of year in 46 percent of the country’s underground aquifers.

It warned at the time, however, that levels were low to very low in parts of Alsace, as well as in the Saône corridor and areas of Languedoc, from the south of the Massif Central to the coast, and the Roussillon area of southwest France.

March, too, was a wet month across the bulk of France – it was the fifth wettest since records began in 1958, according to national forecaster Météo-France.

Crucially however, most of the rain falling on the ground in France now will be gobbled up by vegetation, which means that very little water will make it through to aquifers. The groundwater recharge period, when underground water tables are refilled, is now over until late autumn 2024.

Basically, the water table is about as high as it’s going to get this summer.

Which brings us back to the weather.

Long-range forecasts are notoriously inaccurate but after a mild, wet winter, forecasters expect another dry, warm summer overall, following a cooler-than-normal and occasionally wet spring.

April, for example, is set to be marked by cool spells, though, for the April-May-June quarter as a whole, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages. Forecasters warn that a higher-than-usual number of Spring storms could affect the south-east of the country.

Long-range models suggest, however, that June could be hot and dry, with consequences for agriculture – though groundwater levels should be high enough to cope comfortably.

Forecasting further into the summer is even less certain than normal because – over in the Pacific – El Nino is expected to be replaced by La Nina much faster than normal, making weather prediction difficult. 

The consensus is, however, that the cooling effect of La Nina will not be felt until much later in the year. That said, it will have a more immediate effect on weather activity in the North Atlantic. Forecasters are already predicting a record-breaking hurricane season – which will have an effect on French weather patterns.

Between May and July, forecast temperatures in France are likely to remain 1C to 2C above seasonal averages. Precipitation is expected to be fairly close to average, with a tendency for thunderstorms, especially in the south.

Forecast models predict a wet end to April, a fine and dry May, a hot and occasionally thundery June, and a warmer-than-normal July punctuated by thunderstorms – though some forecasts suggest more mixed weather in the north in the seventh month.

With water tables currently well recharged, the national water situation for the summer is, right now, giving experts little cause for concern. 

Thunderstorms are expected to provide occasional watering to limit surface drought, which is always possible even if water tables are well recharged. The summer of 2024 therefore looks set to be different from recent droughts. 

However, this is not to say water restrictions are not impossible, or even unlikely. In certain areas, notably the Aude and Pyrénées-Orientales, where rainfall has been well below average for years, the situation is already serious.

While the rest of the country saw high rainfall in March, these two départements were recording 50 percent less rain than normal.

These areas are already facing a range of water restrictions. To find out whether restrictions are in place where you live, consult the Vigieau website, which offers information on a national, regional and local level.

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