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Covid deaths in Sweden ‘set to rise in coming weeks’

The Public Health Agency of Sweden has warned that the number of weekly Covid deaths is set to rise, after the number of people testing positive for the virus rose for the sixth week running.

Published: 21 July 2022 16:20 CEST

Covid deaths in Sweden 'set to rise in coming weeks'

Annelie Carlander, a unit chief at the Swedish Public Health Agency, said that the weekly death rate from Covid-19 was likely to rise. Photo: Public Health Agency of Sweden

According to the agency, an average of 27 people have died with or from the virus a week over the past three weeks.

“According to our analyses, the number who died in week 27 (July 4th-July 11th), is more than died in week 26 and we expect this to continue to grow,” the agency wrote in a report issued on Thursday.

In the week ending July 17th (week 28), 4,700 new cases of Covid-19 were registered, a 22 percent rise on the previous week.

“We are seeing rising infection levels of Covid-19 which means that there will be more people admitted to hospital, and even more who die with Covid-19,” said Anneli Carlander, a unit chief at the agency. “The levels we are seeing now are higher than they were last summer, but we haven’t reached the same level we saw last winter when omicron was spreading for the first time.”

While 27 deaths a week with for from Covid-19 is a rise on the low levels seen this spring, it is well below the peak death rate Sweden saw in April 2020, when more than 100 people were dying a day.

The number of Covid deaths recorded each week this summer. Source. Public Health Agency of Sweden

A graph of Covid deaths per day since the start of the pandemic shows that the current death rate, while alarming, remains low. Photo: Public Health Agency of Sweden

Carlander said that cases were rising among those in sheltered accommodation for the elderly, and also elderly people given support in their own homes, groups which are recommended to get tested for the virus if they display symptoms. The infection rate among those given support in their homes has risen 40 percent on last week.

This week there were also 12 new patients admitted to intensive care units with Covid-19 in Sweden’s hospitals.

The increase has come due to the new BA.5 variant of omicron, which is better able to infect people who have been vaccinated or already fallen ill with Covid-19. Vaccination or a past infection does, however, give protection against serious illness and death.

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Anders Tegnell: Sweden's Covid strategy 'a misunderstanding'

“We were not any kind of libertarian paradise,” Tegnell told AFP during an in interview at his publisher’s office in Stockholm.

“We were just a society trying to find good ways to handle it in the most effective way for us,” he continued.

As countries around the world started extensive lockdowns in response to the spread of the novel coronavirus, Sweden stood out as it opted for more non-coercive measures.

Among some of its stricter measures it did ban visits to elderly care homes and limit the number of people attending public gatherings.

But it never imposed confinement, closed schools or required people to wear masks, basing its strategy on recommendations and individual responsibility.

The approach gave rise to a heated debate abroad, and was at times held up as a cautionary tale, or on the contrary, hailed by opponents of lockdowns.

“Obviously, many perceived Swedish volunteerism as a passive approach,” Tegnell writes in his book, calling it a “misunderstanding,” while conceding communication from his agency could have been better at times.

Nursing homes

Titled “Tankar efter en pandemi” (Thoughts after a pandemic), the book reflects the phlegmatic character of the public official, with each stage of the national strategy methodically dissected and explained.

“I also thought that people actually could handle this themselves,” he notes in his book and adds that he believes his faith was justified.

“We did not force anyone but saw a huge compliance with our recommendations,” Tegnell writes.

Having become the figurehead of Sweden’s strategy in spite of himself, Tegnell recounts his astonishment at the anger and even death threats directed against him.

But he insists that a majority of Swedes supported the country’s Public Health Agency: “It was the first time that our agency had received so many flowers!”

During the first wave of the pandemic, Sweden was one of the countries hit hard, especially as the disease ravaged retirement homes, claiming the lives of 2,780 people between March 1st and September 30th, 2020, according to official statistics.

In his book, Tegnell calls it a “catastrophic situation.”

“We really need to improve the quality of care in our elderly homes, the preparedness for these kinds of issues,” Tegnell told AFP.

In total, Sweden has recorded some 19,500 deaths associated with Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic.

Due to differences in accounting practices, international comparisons are difficult, but according to the “Our World in Data” website, Sweden is doing better than its European peers with 2,365 deaths per million inhabitants compared to 2,767 per million average for the European Union by late October.

At the start of the pandemic, the epidemiologist thought it would be easier to care for the elderly in Sweden than elsewhere in Europe, because they were all gathered together in one place, but in his book he admits he “was completely wrong,” as the homes lacked both the resources and skills needed.

Are we prepared?

Sweden also distinguished itself by never pushing for the widespread use of face masks, and they were only recommended on public transport during the second wave of the pandemic.

“Many countries in Asia have been using masks in public places for decades to limit the spread of the virus during the flu season. Had they been doing it wrong all these years?,” Tegnell ponders.

“It wasn’t my role to judge,” he continues.

“But in all the research, I couldn’t find any evidence that it made a difference for the better.” The scientist also urges authorities and organisations to take stock of the pandemic to learn for the future: “What happened and what did we do?”

The answers and conclusions drawn will be invaluable, as the epidemiologist considers a future pandemic to be inevitable, and likely “within the next few decades”.

“In many parts of the world the population is growing, which means that we start living in areas where we haven’t been before and in those areas there are very likely going to be new kinds of viruses that we haven’t seen before,” Tegnell said during the interview.

Whether we are prepared for the next one is “always difficult to know.”

“I think that we are slightly better prepared than we were for this one. But I think there is also lots more work to be done,” he concluded.

By AFP’s Nioucha Zakavati

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