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WEATHER

Why parts of Spain are the driest they’ve been in 1,200 years

Parts of Spain and Portugal are the driest they've been in over 1,000 years, according to research published on Monday which warns of severe implications for wine and olive production in the Iberian Peninsula.

Why parts of Spain are the driest they've been in 1,200 years
Iberian agricultural production is one "of the most vulnerable in Europe" according to the latest scientific research. (Photo by JOSE LUIS ROCA / AFP)

The Azores High, an area of high pressure that rotates clockwise over parts of the North Atlantic, has a major effect on weather and long term climate trends in western Europe.

But in a new modelling study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers in the United States found this high-pressure system “has changed dramatically in the past century and that these changes in North Atlantic climate are unprecedented within the past millennium”.

Using climate model simulations over the last 1,200 years, the study found that this high-pressure system started to grow to cover a greater area around 200 years ago, as human greenhouse gas pollution began to increase.

It expanded even more dramatically in the 20th century in step with global warming.

The authors then looked at evidence of rainfall levels preserved over hundreds of years in Portuguese stalagmites, and found that as the Azores High has expanded, the winters in the western Mediterranean have become drier.

The study cites projections that the level of precipitation could fall a further 10 to 20 percent by the end of this century, which the authors say would make Iberian agriculture “some of the most vulnerable in Europe”.

They warn that the Azores High will continue to expand during the 21st century as greenhouse gas levels rise, leading to an increasing risk of drought on the Iberian Peninsula and threatening key crops.

“Our findings have important implications for projected changes in western Mediterranean hydroclimate throughout the twenty-first century,” the authors said.

researchers have predicted a 30-percent drop in production for olive regions in southern Spain by 2100. (Photo by RAYMOND ROIG / AFP)

Wither on the vines

The Azores High acts as a “gatekeeper” for rainfall into Europe, according to the study, with dry air descending in the summer months to cause hot, arid conditions in much of Portugal, Spain and the western Mediterranean.

In the cool, wetter winter period, the high-pressure system swells, sending westerly winds carrying rain inland.   

This winter rain is “vital” for both the ecological and economic health of the region, but it has been decreasing, particularly over the second half of the 20th century.

While previous research had not untangled the effects of natural variability on the Azores High, the authors said their findings show its expansion during the industrial era is linked to the rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

A study cited in the latest research estimates that the area suitable for grape growing in the Iberian Peninsula could shrink by at least a quarter and potentially vanish almost completely by 2050 because of severe water shortages.

Meanwhile, researchers have predicted a 30-percent drop in production for olive regions in southern Spain by 2100.

Winemakers are already looking for ways to adapt to the changing climate, such as moving vineyards to higher altitudes and experimenting with more heat-tolerant varieties.

Last year, scientists found that a severe spring frost that ravaged grape vines in France was made more likely by climate change, with the plants budding earlier and therefore more susceptible to damage.

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WEATHER

Storm Nelson dampens Spain’s Semana Santa celebrations

Storm Nelson has soaked parts of Spain during its famous Semana Santa celebrations, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, waves, and cancelling processions across the country.

Storm Nelson dampens Spain's Semana Santa celebrations

In some parts of the country, Spain’s Semana Santa celebrations have been something of a washout this year. Storm Nelson has brought fierce winds, waves and heavy rain, cancelling many Easter processions.

Winds of up to 140km/hr in parts of north western Spain left several people injured, and even caused some flights to be redirected or cancelled.

READ ALSO: Strike action at Spanish airports set to disrupt Easter travel

As such, Spain’s state meteorological Aemet has implemented severe weather warnings in many parts of the country.

There are serious orange-level warnings in the north west of the country, particularly on the Galician and Asturian coast, and yellow-level warnings across large swathes of northern Spain, as well as in the south-west and south-east, particularly on the Mediterranean coast.

You can find a full breakdown of the weather alerts on the Aemet website here.

Sadly, the weather doesn’t look as though it will improve over the Easter weekend. Storm Nelson is not directly above Spain, but weather fronts connected to it will sweep across the peninsula over the next few days.

On Maundy Thursday, a cold front will remain stationary over Spain, spreading across most of the country from southwest to northeast. Rain will be particularly heavy in the southwest and west of the country, notably in cities famous for Semana Santa processions such as Seville and Málaga.

Rainfall could exceed 50-60 mm in areas of Huelva, Seville, Badajoz, Córdoba and Ciudad Real, according to El Tiempo. Strong winds will continue throughout the day.

In parts of Castilla y León, Madrid and Castilla-La Mancha, rainfall will be weaker but could still amount to more than 10mm in large areas.

Good Friday is also forecast to be another wet day in many parts of the country. Waves could exceed 5 metres in areas of the Atlantic, the Bay of Biscay and also in the Mediterranean, especially around the Balearic Islands. Friday could also see strong gusts, especially in the early hours of the morning.

Saturday will be another unstable day, with heavy rain forecast in the west and along the Atlantic coast. Aemet forecasts show storms and even potentially lightning over the weekend that will begin to ease in the early hours of Easter Monday. Initial forecasts predict the rains could finally cease by Monday evening.

Aemet gave a pretty succinct forecast on its Twitter/X account yesterday: “Storm Nelson will leave rain, snowfall and strong winds during the next few days.”

As is clear from the Aemet graphic below, Spain is set for several days of heavy rain and wind over the Easter weekend.

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