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PROPERTY

Why are one fifth of Swedish properties selling for below asking price?

Across Sweden, almost one in five properties sold below asking price in the first two weeks of June - almost as many as in summer 2020, just months after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Why are one fifth of Swedish properties selling for below asking price?
The new figures come from Swedish property site Hemnet. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/Scanpix/TT

The downturn on the property market in Sweden is perhaps becoming more and more clear, with one in five properties selling under asking price in the beginning of June.

Rising interest rates from the Swedish central bank alongside high inflation is starting to make its mark on apartment and house sales. It’s not just affecting prices, but also leading to a larger number of sellers having to sell for lower than asking price.

Across Sweden, the percentage of sellers selling under asking price in the first two weeks of June amounted to 19.2 percent, according to statistics from property site Hemnet. This is almost as many as in summer 2020 (20.6 percent), when the market was affected by uncertainty over the Covid-19 pandemic.

“It’s a clear change,” Erik Holmberg, analyst at Hemnet, told TT newswire.

“The main factor is a market which is changing, and if we compare this to a year ago it’s a significant difference, where it’s become a buyer’s market.”

Record-high asking prices

Holmberg also said that in this type of situation, many who are looking to sell their home adopt a different strategy.

“We’ve seen record-high asking prices. Historically, it’s been the case that when the market becomes more cautious, there’s a tendency to put property on the market at a high asking price,” he said.

There are also clear regional differences. In inner-city Stockholm, where some of Sweden’s most expensive apartments per square metre are located, prices have dropped by almost exactly a fifth (20.1 percent). Last year prices in this area dropped by 4.7 percent, with a 12 percent drop in 2020 and a 9.9 percent drop in 2019.

Jakob Jakobssen, an estate agent at Widerlöv Stockholm, has almost 14 years’ experience in the property branch. He agreed that the situation has changed noticeably over the last six weeks.

“In general, I can say that buyers are more cautious and careful,” he told TT. “There’s a very low interest in advance viewings and very few properties are sold before viewing. Buyers want a more traditional viewing.”

Hard to match buyers with sellers

Another deciding factor is the fact that supply has increased drastically from the lower level seen around the beginning of the year until March. Now, the challenge is matching up buyers and sellers with each other.

“I’ve been an estate agent for a long time and been through downturns, like in autumn 2008 and in 2017, so I think I have the right tools to help buyers and sellers feel secure, but there are lots of newer colleagues in this branch who are having a hard time,” Jakobssen said.

“Maybe they started working when the market was on the up and they’re struggling to understand the situation the market is in right now.”

During the Covid-19 pandemic, different kinds of properties were affected in different ways, with larger apartments selling better than smaller ones. However, this time it’s affecting all properties equally.

“With the effects we have now such as rising index rates, rising inflation and drops on the stock market, it’s affecting all kinds of apartments, whereas during the pandemic, it was affecting different types of apartment in different ways,” he said.

“This is hitting the whole property market hard.”

However, Jakobssen believes the situation will be different after the summer.

“I think there’ll be more sales in August-September than there are now, but at a lower level. Sellers will have learnt by then that there’s been an effect on the market.”

 

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MONEY

Swedish central bank: Cuts to key interest rate in May or June ‘likely’

Sweden's Riksbank on Wednesday left the country's main interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, with cuts in May or June "likely".

Swedish central bank: Cuts to key interest rate in May or June 'likely'

“Inflation is in the process of stabilising at the [2 percent] target, but inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated,” the bank wrote in a press release accompanying the announcement.

It was widely expected that the bank would choose to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, the highest level since 2008.

“It is likely that the [key interest] rate can be cut in May or June if inflation prospects remain favourable,” it added.

According to the bank’s forecast, it expects to lower the key interest rate three times over the next year, reaching 3.2 percent by the first quarter of 2025 – significantly lower than the 4.1 percent prediction from its November 2023 forecast.

The bank also revised its forecasts for GDP and CPI (consumer price index) inflation. GDP is expected to stand at 0.3 percent this year, up from the previous prediction of -0.2 percent, CPI inflation is predicted to stand at 3.5 percent, down from the previous prediction of 4.4 percent, while the prediction for CPIF inflation (consumer price index with a fixed interest rate, the measure favoured by the Riksbank), remains the same at 2.3 percent for 2024.

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There are a few possible risk factors which could affect these predictions, it writes, including new supply shocks due to geopolitical unrest, the krona continuing to weaken, or companies’ pricing behaviour not changing as expected.

Experts from major Swedish banks welcomed the decision, adding that the Riksbank may lower the key interest rate more often than suggested in its forecast.

“We think there will be even more drops to the interest rate,” head analyst at Nordea, Susanne Spector, told TT newswire, adding that there is a “high chance” that the rate could be lowered as soon as May.

SEB agreed, predicting four drops to the interest rate and a “slightly higher chance” of a drop to the rate in May rather than June.

“For households under pressure an earlier drop is positive,” SEB interest strategist Amanda Sundström told TT.

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