COPY LINK

For members

POLITICS

Spain’s PP is hot on the heels of PSOE, but will they need Vox to govern?

With the next general election slated for December 2023, recent polling shows Spain's Conservatives gaining ground on the Socialists. Spanish political correspondent Conor Faulkner looks at whether the PP will need far-right Vox to govern, as they now do at a regional level.

Published: 20 May 2022 11:02 CEST
Updated: 20 May 2022 12:24 CEST

Spain's PP is hot on the heels of PSOE, but will they need Vox to govern?

Feijoo waves during the 20th National Congress of the Popular Party (PP) in Seville on April 2, 2022. Photo: Cristina Quciler/AFP

Recent polling from Spain’s CIS (Centre for Sociological Research) shows the incumbent PSOE-led government with a slight, but shrinking, advantage over opposition parties.

On 30.3 percent, Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE would form the government if elections were held today, but that score is unimproved since April and, crucially, the centre-right party Popular Party is gaining, polling at 28.7 percent in May, with the difference between the two now only 1.6 percent.

In fact, PP have been on a steady rise since a turbulent start to 2022 in which former leader Pablo Casado was forced to resign after becoming entangled in intra-party infighting with PP’s regional President in Madrid, Isabel Ayuso.

Casado was replaced by Galician Alberto Núñez Feijóo, considered to be a more traditional centre-right candidate in the mould of Rajoy, who served as President of Galicia between 2009-2022.

PROFILE: Feijóo, steady hand on the tiller for Spain’s opposition party

Whereas Casado was often drawn into scandal and outflanked on cultural issues by far-right Vox, Feijóo is considered a more conventional conservative less prone to populism, and his short tenure as leader has put the PP back on the road to electoral respectability.

PP were polling around 21 percent in February, amid the public infighting, but since then have steadily risen to the 28.7 percent that they would get if an election were held today, according to recent CIS numbers.

Yet, while many view Feijóo as more centrist than his predecessor, at the regional level far-right Vox have entered into a regional government coalition with PP in Castilla y León.

With important regional elections looming in Andalusia in June, and a general election further down the line in December 2023, it remains unclear if PP would be forced to rely on Vox to overcome PSOE’s thin polling advantage and form a national government.

Crucially, PP’s recent rise has not chipped away at Vox’s polling numbers. According to the CIS, Vox’s polling numbers grew from 14.8 percent in April to 16.6 percent in May, and with centrist Cuidadanos all but electorally wiped out, hovering around 2 or 3 percent all year, and the far-left, junior coalition partner Podemos falling further in the polls, to below 10 percent, the CIS estimate a higher probability of a right-wing PP-Vox (45 percent) than they do a PSOE-Podemos (39.9 percent) government.

With Vox now firmly established as Spain’s third political party and already on the offensive in Castilla y Leon’s regional government – including its Minister of Industry, Commerce and Employment in the assembly recently declaring war against “the virus of communism” – all eyes will be on the upcoming Andalusian regional elections to see if PP is again forced to rely on Vox members to form a government.

Vox’s anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, climate-sceptic populist policy programme is controversial, and the prospect of them as junior coalition partner in a national government would be an abrupt change from a government that wants to introduce menstrual leave and provide financial aid to renters.

Their entry into government at the regional level in Castilla y León was the first time they have officially entered into an executive, at any level, although PP have relied on Vox votes in regional assemblies in both Murcia and Andalusia in the past.

Whereas under Casado’s leadership PP were often forced rightward on cultural issues in an effort to stop Vox shaving away at their core electoral base, under Feijóo the future is less clear. Although Feijóo is considered more centrist than his predecessor, Vox’s steady rise since its emergence into Spanish politics since 2014 worries many on the left and centre, particularly as it has now officially entered into government at the regional level.

Yet, Feijóo seems keen to draw some distinction between the two parties. “The leaders of Vox cannot prove experience in management [of the country] because they do not have it, [and] it seems that they do not like the European Union… the State of Autonomies does not satisfy them either,” he said this week, but did recognise their electoral gains as “obvious.”

“The difference between Vox and the PP,” he continued, “is that a good part of Vox leaders came from the PP and left the common home.”

“We are very interested in those votes that those leaders have because they were votes that the PP had. And, as you will understand, we are here to win,” he added.

What exactly that means for the future political makeup of La Moncloa – whether Feijóo intends to win back those votes for PP or keep them in the ‘common home’ and work with Vox in coalition – remains unclear.

With the Sánchez-led coalition having had almost its entire term swallowed up by the global pandemic, then war in Europe, and now a cost of living and inflation crisis, it seems likely the left could lose the next general election and the Spanish right will return to power.

What remains to be seen, however, is whether that means a PP government or a PP-Vox coalition and the prospect of the far-right in government. All eyes will be on Andalusia in June to see how Feijóo pivots his party as it looks ahead to general elections next year.

Member comments

Become a Member to leave a comment.

ANALYSIS: Is Spain's decision to axe golden visa about housing or politics?

On Monday Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez shocked many and announced plans to scrap Spain’s golden visa (visado de oro). You can read more of The Local’s extensive coverage of this decision here and its potential impacts below.

The golden visa allowed non-EU nationals to gain Spanish residency if they bought property worth €500,000.

The visa, first introduced in 2013 by the then centre-right Partido Popular government, has been criticised for essentially selling Spanish residency (and by extension, EU rights) to the wealthy, as well as contributing to property price inflation.

However, some commentators in Spain say that foreigners purchasing luxury properties for half a million euros or more has little impact on Spaniards struggling to find affordable housing, and that the number of property purchases made through the scheme made little difference to the market overall.

Golden visas issued through the purchase of Spanish properties worth more than half a million euros total 14,576 since its inception, according to Spain’s Housing Minister Isabel Rodríguez.

Now, after the dust has settled, property experts and politicians alike have begun to consider the potential consequences of the decision and some are questioning whether it was about housing at all or was a purely political move.

Critics of Sánchez argue that scrapping the golden visa is a ‘smokescreen’ to distract from poor management of the rental sector. Property experts wonder how much effect it will really have on reducing prices for locals, and some fear the decision could even drive away foreign investment in Spain.

What the experts say

It’s certainly true that some experts, whether in property or immigration law, feel the decision could deter non-EU foreigners from coming and investing in Spain.

Maryem Essadik Rhafour, an immigration law expert and partner at Marfour International Law Firm, spoke to The Local and described the move as “a bad decision” that could potentially drive away foreign investment to Spain.

The golden visa, she said, “is a type of investment that has brought a lot of foreign capital to Spain. Moreover, behind every investment there are thousands of sources of income for the local population.”

“This type of measure slows down the arrival of foreigners with a high level of economic capacity and a high level of consumption,” Rhafour added.

Though the total number of golden visa holders is small overall, according to transparency data analysed by Spanish daily El Diario golden visa holders have pumped €5 billion into the Spanish property market over the last five years alone, something that some argue distorted the market overall.

Yet the proportion of property sales made through the scheme is very small. A spokesperson from property website Fotocasa told state broadcaster RTVE that golden visas represented “a very small percentage” of property purchases and that removing them “would not really have an impact on the common residential sale and purchase market.”

A couple pose next to a Ferrari car in Puerto Banus, near Marbella, on March 30, 2013. AFP PHOTO / JORGE GUERRERO (Photo by Jorge Guerrero / AFP)

However, despite that some feel that the decision is still a positive step forward and symbolic in terms of trying to address the structural problems in the Spanish property market. In Spain in recent years, anti-foreigner and anti-tourist sentiment has grown. Much of this comes from a resentment among Spaniards towards short-term tourist lets (known as pisos turisticos in Spanish) that cater to remote workers and digital nomads, which has an inflationary effect on local markets.

As such, for many the issues of spiralling rental costs, tourism, the influx of digital nomads and the golden visa are all intertwined and the government’s measure, indeed any measure, perceived to be doing something about the impact on Spaniards is welcome.

Julio Rodríguez, a member of Spain’s Council of Statistics, told RTVE that although “it will have a limited impact on the overall demand for housing… the message is positive in terms of reducing speculative tension.”

This market speculation increased particularly after the pandemic, when the number of golden visas given out increased rapidly.

“It was in 2022 when the alarm was raised as golden visas doubled,” Housing Minister Isabel Rodríguez told journalists at a press conference on Tuesday.

“In 2016, 471 golden visas linked to Spanish real estate were issued. In 2017, 946. In 2018, 988. In 2019, 861. In 2020, 632. In 2021, 997. In 2022, 2,017. And in 2023, 3,272.”

However, despite this clear post-pandemic uptick in golden visas, it is undeniable that the number of foreigners purchasing property in this way made up a very small proportion of the total number of properties bought by foreigners in Spain. Critics have been quick to point out that golden visa holders represent a far smaller share of the foreign buyers market than other foreign second homeowners without a visa (0.7 percent compared to non-resident foreign buyers who bought a Spanish home in 2023).

So it seems that on balance, the decision to scrap the golden visa is certainly seen as a positive step or symbol, but may not have as big an impact as many first thought, or indeed the government let on when announcing it.

Smokescreens and demagoguery

Despite praise from some Spaniards, the Sánchez government has faced growing criticism in the aftermath of the decision. Many feel it is a performative political ploy that will have little impact on house prices.

Citing statistics on the percentage (less than 1 percent) of properties golden visa holders purchased, opposition Partido Popular spokesman Miguel Tellado claimed in a press conference that eliminating the golden visa is “a smokescreen to cover up the government’s incompetence in housing policy.”

“It’s a good try but I have to tell you that it’s not going to work,” he added.

But it’s not just Sánchez’s political opponents critical of the move. President of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce, José Luis Bonet, has described the scrapping of the golden visa scheme as a “demagogic and ill-advised gesture”.

Luxury houses and hotels in Llafranc, on Spain’s Costa Brava. Photo: Manuel Torres García/Unsplash

The commerce leader also believes the decision could drive foreign investment away. “Spain has become the summer resort and second home for millions of Europeans. Reducing the ways for them to come here seems to me to be unwise,” he said.

Ruth Merino, regional Minister of Finance, Economy and Public Administration in the Valencia region, where many golden visa holders choose to settle, described the decision as “electioneering.”

“This is not good news, it gives the impression that Sánchez does not have a plan for housing: he has electioneering ideas,” she said.

Internal politics

There’s also another layer to the political considerations behind this decision, and it revolves around internal management. The Sánchez government has faced growing criticism for its housing policy not only from opponents on the right, but also from the left too.

Sánchez’s Socialists (PSOE) are in coalition with far-left Sumar, a party which has long called for better regulation of the property market and protections for Spaniards getting priced out of their own towns and cities. Scrapping the golden visa could also speak to the internal political pressures within the Spanish coalition: Sumar had been pressuring PSOE for this, or restrictions on the golden visa scheme at the very least, for some time.

Upon hearing the news, Culture Minister Ernest Urtasun, a Sumar member, referred to the Spanish golden visa as a “European disgrace”, adding that “it cannot be that someone is given a residence permit for the fact of being rich; this is creating first and second-class citizens.”

In this sense, and with the opinions of property experts considered, scrapping the golden visa does appear more like a political step than it does a strictly housing policy decision.

The political benefits are clear. By scrapping the golden visa, the government can stand up to its critics that claim it does nothing about the housing crisis, while also simultaneously keeping members of its coalition on side and quelling frustrations (however disingenuously) among Spaniards about the property market more widely, that is to say: the government felt political pressure to be seen to be doing something about the housing problem, not that this decision will necessarily do anything to solve it.

SHOW COMMENTS

Url copied to clipboard!