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OPINION AND ANALYSIS

Why the Greens are the real winners of Germany’s state elections

German state elections don't tell us everything about the public mood, but the past few votes have revealed some pretty clear winners and losers. While support for the SPD is flagging, the Greens are growing in stature by the day, writes Brian Melican.

Felix Banaszak
Felix Banaszak, the chair of the North-Rhine Westphalia branch of the Green Party, celebrates the election results on Sunday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Friso Gentsch

It’s one of the peculiarities of Germany’s federal system that we’re almost never more than six months away from an election being held somewhere. Alongside the national elections (Bundestagswahl) usually every four years, each of the 16 states also hold ballots (Landtagswahl) on varying cycles; then there are local and mayoral elections, too. As such, rolling campaigning and more-or-less continuous election analysis are a part of life here: “What does Election X say about Government Y?” is a question you will always hear being asked somewhere.

Nevertheless, regional elections have a habit of clustering – and generally come at points when national governments would rather not have people poring over electoral data. And this year, after barely six months in office, Olaf Scholz’ novel tri-partite traffic-light coalition has already been faced with three regional elections – in Saarland (27th March), last week in Schleswig-Holstein (8th May), and yesterday in North-Rhine Westphalia (15th May). On a regional level, the popularity of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) has already been thoroughly tested. 

Understanding state elections

The key thing to remember about German regional elections are that they both are and aren’t about national politics. Firstly, here’s how they aren’t. At a basic level, these regional elections are simply about voters choosing a government to deal with state-level remits (mainly health, education, and housing). They will vote first and foremost on these issues.

Personality politics are also important: long-serving German state premiers frequently garner the unofficial honorific Landesvater or Landesmutter –  literally: ‘father/mother of the state’ – and benefit from high personal approval ratings, allowing them to withstand changes in mood at national level. So it is by no means infrequent for voters to return completely different parties in regional than at national elections. By way of example, while Olaf Scholz, SPD, remained a popular Landesvater figure in Hamburg, Merkel’s CDU still won more Hamburg votes at national elections.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Why Sunday’s state parliament vote in NRW is important for German politics

Then again, regional elections also are about national politics. That’s because they never take place in a vacuum (except for in Bavaria, of course, where everyone always votes CSU). Even the most beloved of state premiers faces an uphill struggle if their party is currently making a hash of things in Berlin. What is more, the larger and the more representative the Bundesland, the more results of its elections can show swings in voter mood which may be of national relevance.

The Greens’ slow ascent from their mid-2000s funk to their current swagger began in Baden-Württemberg: winning control of this state populated by 11 million people and many of Germany’s top industrialists showed that voters trusted them to be part of a government. That set the ball rolling and by the time of last year’s national election, the Greens were already in power in half of federal states. Incidentally, it is often overlooked that state governments make up the Bundesrat, the second chamber of parliament, which can accept or refuse laws made by the Bundestag. So shifts in power here can be of national relevance.

This dichotomy has the predictable effect that, in the aftermath of every Landtagswahl, the losing parties usually claim that it was simply a regional ballot with nothing to say about national politics while the winning parties play up the significance at federal level.

Olaf Scholz and Thomas Kutschaty

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) congratulates Thomas Kutschaty, SPD candidate in North Rhine-Westphalia, after the party wins 26.7 percent of the vote. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Kay Nietfeld

An SPD disaster 

This is why it is very bad news for Olaf Scholz and the SPD that their only victory in spring 2022’s three Landtagswahlen was in dinky little Saarland, a state whose population is smaller than that of a major city like Cologne and whose local politics are so marked by rivalries and infighting as to have little-to-no relevance nationally. Despite winning an absolute majority in the regional parliament at Saarbrücken (a rare feat in proportional representation), there was no way the SPD could claim a national bearing – and, to its credit, didn’t try to do so either.

In Schleswig-Holstein, the SPD wasn’t expected to unseat the CDU’s Daniel Günther, a likeable and well-liked premier coming to the end of five years at the helm of a surprisingly successful Jamaica coalition with the Greens and the FDP. Here, too, the national relevance was relatively low: Schleswig-Holstein has only 3 million inhabitants and few large towns and cities. Nevertheless, losing over half its seats while the Greens and CDU gained by the same amount was not a good result for the SPD.

What was disastrous, however, was last night’s result in North-Rhine Westphalia. With a population the size of the neighbouring Netherlands (17 million) and everything from Germany’s largest urban conurbation down to isolated mountain regions, NRW is often considered a microcosm of the country as a whole. As something of a swing state, parties which succeed here often go on to win the next national election (if they aren’t already in government).

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What is more, unlike in Schleswig-Holstein, NRW was the SDP’s to win. Until last year, its premier was the luckless Armin Laschet (remember him?), who plumbed popularity depths in his failed bid to become Chancellor. He then left a badly-damaged CDU-FDP administration to Hendrik Wüst, a successor whose profile, if he had one at all, was defined by various low-level corruption scandals (including a regrettable incident where he sold slots with the then-NRW premier, Jürgen Rüttgers, to high-paying commercial lobbyists…).

Hendrik Wüst (CDU)

Re-elected NRW state premier Hendrik Wüst (CDU) celebrates his victory. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Rolf Vennenbernd

Even if Wüst proved to be an unexpectedly good campaigner and the SPD’s Thomas Kutschaty remained oddly faceless, the fact that Olaf Scholz himself got involved and that the SPD still ended up with its worst showing in NRW ever is nothing less than a serious defeat for both the Chancellor and his party – one which, in my view, underlines how Scholz has not yet lived up to expectations.

Nevertheless, he is in luck. Firstly, the electoral cycle means that this upset is occurring at the beginning of his term; there will be time to recover. Secondly, although Wüst gets first crack at forming a government, the Greens are his only real potential partner – and will take a lot of courting. NRW Greens are on the more left-wing end of the spectrum and will play the field, potentially trying to usher in a mini traffic-light coalition in Düsseldorf if it looks feasible later.

READ ALSO: OPINION: Scholz is already out of step with Germany – it’s time for a change of course

Growing support for Greens

So after the post-Merkel rout, the CDU has scored an important and much-needed victory, but harnessing it to get momentum nationally may yet prove difficult. Indeed, it’s the Greens who have come out of the last two weekends with a new swing in their step. Following a disappointing national election last year, they have once again hit their stride, due in no small part to the Ukraine reminding voters of why renewable energy is important on the one hand and the impressive figures cut by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock in government on the other.

For the FDP, things are not looking so good. Despite negotiating a disproportionately high amount of their manifesto into last year’s agreement, they are suffering the fate of many a junior coalition partner: a lack of profile. On strictly regional terms, they lost votes to the popular Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein (perhaps unavoidably, despite a good record as part of his coalition) and to the not-yet-popular Hendrik Wüst (following lacklustre performance in government in Düsseldorf).

Greens party posters NRW

Posters featuring Greens candidate Mona Neubaur highlight the link between fossil fuels and Russia’s authoritarian leadership. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Roberto Pfeil

Worryingly for Christian Lindner, however, this may be harbinger of history repeating itself. Essentially, FDP voters tend to get enthusiastic for a business-friendly go-getter type who promises to lower taxes and slash regulation, only to later turn their back on him when, once part of a coalition government, he proves unable to deliver the small-state free-for-all promised. That’s what happened to Guido Westerwelle in the 2009-2013 administration, in any case.

There is, however, one bit of unadulterated good news for all parties and indeed our country as a whole: the AfD lost vote share everywhere. The populist outfit didn’t even make it into parliament in Schleswig-Holstein and only just scraped in in NRW. It would seem that, in times of crisis, voters don’t want to add to the list of potential disasters by putting populists anywhere near power. This is a hypothesis we’ll be able to test in just under six months’ time, by the way, when Lower-Saxony goes to the polls on 9th October. 

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TERRORISM

How does Germany warn people about the threat of terrorist attacks?

Following the recent terrorist attack in Moscow, France has shifted onto the highest possible alert level for terrorist threats. Why doesn't Germany use a similar system - and how does it alert people instead?

How does Germany warn people about the threat of terrorist attacks?

Since the brutal terrorist attack on a Berlin Christmas Market back in December 2016, fears of Islamist terror seem to have receded into the background – through far-right terror has remained prevalent.

But the recent terror attack on a concert hall in Moscow, which has been attributed to a branch of IS, has heightened fears of a resurgence of Islamist violence.

In contrast to neighbouring countries, Germany doesn’t use a national terror alert system to ‘grade’ the threat of terror – but it does have another system for protecting its population and warning people. 

Here’s what you need to know about Germany’s approach to tracking threats of terrorism. 

How does Germany manage the threat of terror? 

According to the Interior Ministry, rather than relying on a system of color-coded alert levels, German security authorities take a more decentralised approach.

The Federal Criminal Police Office regularly conducts assessments of terrorist threats, which are then shared with the leaders of the federal states. If there’s a significant increase in the overall risk assessment or a specific threat emerges, the government puts “appropriate security measures” in place, the Interior Ministry states.

Unlike centralised systems in countries like France, where national threat levels are analysed and shared with the public, security responsibilities in Germany are largely decentralised, resting with individual states.

Why doesn’t Germany use terror alert levels?

When it comes to using national terror alerts to alert citizens, the Interior Ministry remains sceptical, arguing that the threat level can vary significantly between regions and even within cities.

According to the Ministry, having uniform alert levels nationwide might give the false impression that the danger is uniform everywhere, which would lead to higher levels of panic and uncertainty among citizens. 

READ ALSO: How prepared is Germany in the event of a military attack?

While alert levels could theoretically serve as a means to reach the population, ARD terrorism expert Michael Götschenberg points out that their effectiveness diminishes over time. People tend to become desensitised to frequent high alert levels, which causes people to ‘switch off’ and ultimately ignore potential threats.

Mourner at Breitscheidplatz in Berlin

A man stands in front of the memorial to the victims of the Islamist terrorist attack on Breitscheidplatz in December 2026. The Christmas Market attack was the last major Islamist attack in Germany. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christoph Soeder

One of the main factors that renders colour-coded alerts less useful is the fact that “the levels are not linked to specific rules of behaviour for the population”, Götschenberg told Tagesschau.

Austria, for example, raised its alert level last November but emphasised that the public didn’t need to alter their behaviour in any way. This reflects authorities’ belief that the best way to fight terrorism is for the population to show resilience and refuse to give into fear.

How high is the threat of terror attacks in Germany?

In the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Moscow, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) has described the current threat of Islamist terror as “acute”.

However, the attack has not significantly changed the authorities’ perceptions of the situation. In fact, the threat was defined as acute before the latest attacks and remains so afterwards.

Several other countries, including the UK and the US, have already put out warnings for potential terrorist attacks to citizens who are considering travelling to Germany. In the UK, for example, the government cites recent attacks such as the shootings in Hanau shisha bars back in 2020 and the knife attack in Dresden the same year.

“Terrorists are very likely to try and carry out attacks in Germany,” states the official government advice, which adds that restaurants, markets, shopping centres and places of worship could be chosen for potential attacks. 

So, how will the public be warned if a plans for a specific attack become known? As well as offering general information about terrorist threat levels, the government will also release specifics that it feels are necessary for the public safety.

For example, when the authorities suspected an attack was being planned in the area around Cologne cathedral ahead of Christmas last year, warnings were sent out to residents of the city. 

On Tuesday, Faeser also revealed that she would put additional border controls in place during the European Football Championships in June and July this year. 

READ ALSO: Germany announces border controls for European Football Championship

The focus will be on protecting the country from Islamists, political extremists and other violent criminals during the competition.

“We are keeping an eye on the current threats,” Faeser told the regional Rheinische Post. 

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