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NATO

Sweden’s Nato membership ‘would reduce risk of military conflict in Europe’

The Swedish government's party security policy working group has concluded that joining the Nato security alliance will increase Sweden's security, setting the stage for a likely application on Monday.

Sweden's Nato membership 'would reduce risk of military conflict in Europe'
Sweden's security policy analysis group announced it report. Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT

Presenting the results of the analysis (here in English) at a press conference at 11am on Friday, Sweden’s foreign minister, Ann Linde, said that a Swedish Nato membership would “raise the threshold for military conflict in Europe”. 

“The foremost consequence of a future membership in Nato is that Sweden would be a part of Nato’s collective security and as a result have a conflict-dampening effect in Europe,” she said. 

Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist added that Nato membership would make the response of Sweden’s allies more predictable. 

“With a future Swedish Nato membership, the uncertainty which there is currently over what behaviour would be seen in a security crisis or armed attack would be reduced,” he said.  

The group, which was formed on March 16th, shortly before Easter, and met six times, was led by Linde, and included Hultqvist together with appointees from all of Sweden’s eight parliamentary parties. The report, while making strong arguments in favour of Nato membership for Sweden, makes no explicit recommendation that Sweden should apply to join the 30-country alliance. 

Neither Linde nor Hultqvist were willing to state their own positions on whether Sweden should join, arguing that as ministers representing the Social Democrats, they needed to wait until the party officially changes its position to favour membership at a meeting of its ruling committee on Sunday. 

“Of course, it’s the case that after this extremely thorough work, that I’m clear about my own opinion,” Linde said. “But out of respect for our party discussion and for the government’s decision which will come soon, I am choosing not to say what I think for now.” 

Hans Wallmark, foreign policy spokesperson for the pro-Nato Moderate Party, said, however that in his opinion the conclusion of the report was clear. 

“We share the conclusions made yesterday by Finland’s president and prime minister,” he said. “We must now immediately apply for Nato membership. Full stop.” 

The report argues that Russia’s military aggression is not a short-term problem, but instead means a “structural and long-term deterioration in the security situation in Europe”, making it “necessary to make an assessment of how Sweden’s security can be guaranteed in the best way”.  

It also argues that despite the increased military interoperability with Sweden’s partners, there was “no guarantee that Sweden will get help if a serious threat or attack was directed at the country that was not within the boundaries of current cooperation”. 

It argues that a bilateral approach was “not a realistic alternative” and that there was a “lack of political will” within the EU to build a system of mutual defence, while the attack on Ukraine had shown the limits of the help Nato will give to non-member countries. 

“A Swedish Nato membership would raise the threshold for military conflict and as a result have a conflict-preventing effect in northern Europe,” the paper concludes.

“If both Sweden and Finland join Nato, then all of the Nordic and Baltic countries would be covered by an obligation of mutual defence. The uncertainty which there is currently over what behaviour would be seen in a security crisis or armed attack would be reduced.”

The representatives from the Green Party and Left Party, which both oppose Nato membership, refused to back the conclusions of the report, giving their approval only to the first four chapters laying out the changed threat situation. 

In the press conference, Håkan Svenneling, an MP from the Left Party, complained that the report barely mentioned any of the risks that would come with Nato membership.

“You have to look with a microscope to find any of the arguments against Nato membership,” he complained, dismissing the report as “a pamphlet in favour of Swedish Nato membership”. 

The report does, however, push back at one of the key arguments of Nato opponents, arguing that membership of the alliance would not impact on Sweden’s goal of progressive nuclear disarmament. 

“A Nato-membership would not decrease Sweden’s opportunities to pursue our values internationally, including for nuclear disarmament,” the report reads. 

It also concludes that while Russia will express its unhappiness at Sweden and Finland joining Nato, and may respond with non-military measures, it is unlikely to mount a military attack on Sweden.  

Member comments

  1. How on earth could possibly Sweden joining NATO increase the safety of Europe as a whole and of Sweden in particular??? Sweden has been out of Nato fo up to 70 years since Nato itself was created soon after the end of WWII, and never ever Sweden was in danger of an invasion from The Soviet Union, why should it be worried NOW? On the contrary, Russia has EXPLICITELY said that Sweden and Finland joining Nato is seen as an aggresive move, and will be opposed by Russian counter-meaures! Is there any more tangible proof??? Evidently, the new Swedish government is moving along following an agenda that is more and more dictated by the USA, and Nato, more than by their own people’s real interests and safety!

  2. Turkey says it opposes Sweden and Finland and will Veto membership for these two pawns of the United States . HA HA HA .

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MONEY

Swedish central bank: Cuts to key interest rate in May or June ‘likely’

Sweden's Riksbank on Wednesday left the country's main interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, with cuts in May or June "likely".

Swedish central bank: Cuts to key interest rate in May or June 'likely'

“Inflation is in the process of stabilising at the [2 percent] target, but inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated,” the bank wrote in a press release accompanying the announcement.

It was widely expected that the bank would choose to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4 percent, the highest level since 2008.

“It is likely that the [key interest] rate can be cut in May or June if inflation prospects remain favourable,” it added.

According to the bank’s forecast, it expects to lower the key interest rate three times over the next year, reaching 3.2 percent by the first quarter of 2025 – significantly lower than the 4.1 percent prediction from its November 2023 forecast.

The bank also revised its forecasts for GDP and CPI (consumer price index) inflation. GDP is expected to stand at 0.3 percent this year, up from the previous prediction of -0.2 percent, CPI inflation is predicted to stand at 3.5 percent, down from the previous prediction of 4.4 percent, while the prediction for CPIF inflation (consumer price index with a fixed interest rate, the measure favoured by the Riksbank), remains the same at 2.3 percent for 2024.

EDITOR’S PICK:

There are a few possible risk factors which could affect these predictions, it writes, including new supply shocks due to geopolitical unrest, the krona continuing to weaken, or companies’ pricing behaviour not changing as expected.

Experts from major Swedish banks welcomed the decision, adding that the Riksbank may lower the key interest rate more often than suggested in its forecast.

“We think there will be even more drops to the interest rate,” head analyst at Nordea, Susanne Spector, told TT newswire, adding that there is a “high chance” that the rate could be lowered as soon as May.

SEB agreed, predicting four drops to the interest rate and a “slightly higher chance” of a drop to the rate in May rather than June.

“For households under pressure an earlier drop is positive,” SEB interest strategist Amanda Sundström told TT.

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