SHARE
COPY LINK

COVID-19

Five possible winter scenarios for Covid-19 in Austria

A new study by MedUni Vienna has revealed five possible scenarios for how the Covid-19 pandemic could play out in Austria during the next autumn and winter season.

People line up to be tested for Covid-19 in Austria
Austrian scientists have identified five possible scenarios for the Covid-19 pandemic in the winter. (Photo by ALEX HALADA / AFP)

As the Covid-19 pandemic enters the seasonal relaxation stage – like the past two years – Austrian scientists are already working towards next autumn and winter to predict likely scenarios.

This coincides with the onset of winter in the Southern Hemisphere where a fifth wave of infections is sweeping across South Africa due to Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, although there are no indications that the new variants lead to a more severe course of Covid-19.

Meanwhile, a working paper by a team of researchers at MedUni Vienna details five possibilities for how the pandemic could progress past the summer months.

READ MORE: Austria extends Covid regulations as experts warn of autumn resurgence

The first scenario is the one that everyone is hoping for – the pandemic is over. In this case, the symptoms of Covid-19 would resemble a cold and any new variants would result in mild illness.

Scenario two is that we reach the endemic phase of the pandemic. This would mean there was stable immunity in the population with only slight increases in infections every one or two years.

The third scenario is similar to number two and would involve a slow transition to the endemic phase. This would result in high levels of infection during the cold season and an ongoing burden on the health system.

However, scenario four has two parts – A and B.

READ ALSO: Austria recommends Covid booster shot for children aged five and over

In 4A, the pandemic would continue to be dangerous with the emergence of new variants similar to Delta and the possibility of more lockdowns.

In 4B, the pandemic would escalate due to the virus mutating and becoming even more dangerous. In this scenario, a new adapted vaccine would have to be developed.

At this stage, all scenarios are on the table, although countries in the Southern Hemisphere, like South Africa, are not showing any signs of an escalation of Covid-19 so far.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.

HEALTH

Covid-19 still causing 1,000 deaths a week in Europe, WHO warns

The World Health Organization's European office warned on Tuesday the risk of Covid-19 has not gone away, saying it was still responsible for nearly 1,000 deaths a week in the region. And the real figure may be much higher.

Covid-19 still causing 1,000 deaths a week in Europe, WHO warns

The global health body on May 5 announced that the Covid-19 pandemic was no longer deemed a “global health emergency.”

“Whilst it may not be a global public health emergency, however, Covid-19 has not gone away,” WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge told reporters.

The WHO’s European region comprises 53 countries, including several in central Asia.

“Close to 1,000 new Covid-19 deaths continue to occur across the region every week, and this is an underestimate due to a drop in countries regularly reporting Covid-19 deaths to WHO,” Kluge added, and urged authorities to ensure vaccination coverage of at least 70 percent for vulnerable groups.

Kluge also said estimates showed that one in 30, or some 36 million people, in the region had experienced so called “long Covid” in the last three years, which “remains a complex condition we still know very little about.”

“Unless we develop comprehensive diagnostics and treatment for long Covid, we will never truly recover from the pandemic,” Kluge said, encouraging more research in the area which he called an under-recognised condition.

Most countries in Europe have dropped all Covid safety restrictions but some face mask rules remain in place in certain countries in places like hospitals.

Although Spain announced this week that face masks will no longer be required in certain healthcare settings, including hospitals and pharmacies, with a couple of exceptions.

Sweden will from July 1st remove some of its remaining Covid recommendations for the public, including advice to stay home and avoid close contact with others if you’re ill or have Covid symptoms.

The health body also urged vigilance in the face of a resurgence of mpox, having recorded 22 new cases across the region in May, and the health impact of heat waves.

SHOW COMMENTS