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OPINION AND ANALYSIS

OPINION: How many massacres will it take before Germany turns off Russian gas?

Ever-worsening brutalities are unfolding in Ukraine day by day, but Germany remains set on blocking a Russian gas embargo. If it doesn't change course, it could find itself complicit in an ugly repeat of history, writes Brian Melican.

A Ukrainian soldier passes a burnt-out tank in the district of Bucha
A Ukrainian soldier passes a burnt-out tank in the district of Bucha, near Kyiv. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire | Matthew Hatcher

Many of those murdered during Germany’s singular historic crime, the Holocaust, were deported from what is today Ukraine; many others never even made it that far, summarily shot like the tens of thousands at Babyn Jar near Kyiv in 1941.

Now, eighty years on, civilians have once again been executed in the Kyiv suburbs and there may have been attacks with chemical weapons further east. While Germany is not the perpetrator this time, it is complicit.

The problem is gas.

For despite all the tough talk and sanctions, Germany is still, like several other European nations, transferring eight-figure sums to Moscow in return for gas deliveries on a daily basis. We are doing this because half of the gas in our network is piped in straight from Russia and, as we have conspicuously, criminally neglected to build the infrastructure we would need to replace it, we seemingly have no choice but to keep financing a Kremlin regime bent on harrowing its neighbour.

I write “seemingly” because there are several different points of view here. In discussions about how quickly we can wean ourselves off the Russian supply, there are those who say that we could manage this by the end of the current year – albeit with some hardship. Others, meanwhile, posit a worst-case scenario in which, if Russian gas is cut off (either by a European embargo or, indeed, by Putin himself in a pre-emptive move), the German economy grinds to a standstill almost overnight.

READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: How quickly can Germany wean itself off Russian gas?

Crying wolf? 

One of the more pessimistic assessments comes from chemicals giant BASF. The company requires gas not just for energy, but also as a raw material for its products, and calculates that a 50 percent cut in the gas supply would force it to close its Ludgwigshafen works entirely, jeopardising 40,000 jobs. What is more, the firm claims, its wide range of chemicals products are essential in all manner of other industrial applications, meaning its closure would have knock-on effects throughout the German, European, and indeed global economy.

BASF corporate communications have been very successful in making sure that anyone who reads a paper now knows this line of argument, and BASF boss Martin Brudermüller recently upped the ante, warning in an interview with FAZ that boycotting Russian gas would mean “destroying the German economy”. To that I say: bullshit. Firstly, the only economy getting ‘destroyed’ here is the Ukrainian one; ours is facing difficulties, not missiles. Brudermüller and others sounding the alarm would do well to remember that and moderate their tone.

Secondly, German industrials have been crying wolf about energy prices for as long as I’ve been living in Germany – and long before. Quoted last week in DIE ZEIT, Berlin Energy Studies Professor Christian von Hirschhausen traces this tendency back to the 1800s. And if it’s not the price of gas or electricity, it’s government regulation, environmental concerns, consumers’ unwillingness to pay higher prices… Something is always, apparently, about to force Germany’s biggest and most successful companies to fire everyone and shut up shop unless the government gives them a helping hand. For a sector whose constituents spend half of every annual report telling their shareholders just how innovative and efficient they are, German industry seems to have a problem with actually applying some of its much-vaunted knack for innovation to the issue of energy efficiency.

Mass lay-offs? 

A classic case of this tendency – and where it leads – is Volkswagen during the Winterkorn years, when the corporation greenwashed itself with campaigns like “Blue Diesel” for public consumption while lobbying Berlin to water down planned EU emissions regulations. Whereas French carmakers and, to be fair, BMW in Munich knuckled down and actually made their vehicles more efficient, in the 2010s, Wolfsburg executives expended their corporate energy warning German ministers that any legal requirements to reduce fleet C02 emissions to below 95g per passenger kilometre would result in mass redundancies. Then, when Merkel secured them the far higher transitional figure of 130g, they set their oh-so innovative minds to writing cheat software to work round it.

In my view, German industry can no longer have it both ways: either its companies are, as they keep claiming, the world’s most innovative, highest-quality producers of crucial components and premium products with unparalleled abilities to adapt to market conditions or they are, as they also claim, wholly dependent on the German government shielding them from any disturbances whatsoever.

The BASF plant in Ludwigshafen.

The BASF plant in Ludwigshafen. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Uwe Anspach

Would turning off Russian gas within the next couple of weeks cause a severe recession in Germany and other European countries? Possibly. Would BASF have to close its works? Maybe. Would they fire everyone? Almost certainly not. Germany has a generous, tried-and-tested short hours scheme; the gas supply issues would be temporary – months, a year tops – and the company would need its staff ready for when the supply comes back on-stream. Moreover, they might have found by then that there actually are several ways of appreciably reducing the amount of gas they use, with longer-term benefits for us all. Necessity, they say, is the mother of invention: Aus der Not kann man eine Tugend machen.

READ ALSO: OPINION: Germany is in a muddle over Russia – and it only has itself to blame

Chemical giant’s dark past  

This isn’t being gung-ho, either: Germany’s top energy researcher, Professor Claudia Kemfert, is of the opinion that the time has come for us to “go cold turkey” on fossil fuels. Either way, this corporate blackmail has to stop, because regardless of what actually would happen if Russian gas is cut off, BASF’s wailing is particularly distasteful. Indeed, in a country like ours, which has made so much of trying to atone for its past, we should all be ashamed that it is going unchallenged.

How so? BASF was the main company in the I. G. Farben chemicals conglomerate which, during the Nazi years, used slave labour at Auschwitz on an unparalleled scale and was instrumental in developing the Zyklon B gas used there. Following the liquidation of I. G. Farben, BASF continued as one of the stand-alone successor concerns – and so to this day carries the legacy of this particularly amoral, maybe even downright evil company, and the responsibility which goes with that. 

At this juncture, this responsibility – both for BASF as a company and for Germany as a country – could not be clearer. While the gradual, gentle approach to weaning ourselves off of Russian gas imports might have seemed just about tenable in the early days of the war, the fact that Russia hasn’t simply invaded a neighbouring country, but has already resorted to purposefully slaughtering innocent civilians, calls for a reassessment.

Time for action

Yes, Germany’s dependency on Russian gas is an abject national failure several decades in the making and so cannot be fixed overnight. But, to be blunt, we – as a country, as an economy, and as the voters who spent 15 years re-electing Merkel and her from-Russia-with-love Grand Coalitions – have made our bed and must now lie in it. We need to stop importing Putin’s gas now. Not tomorrow, not next week, and not at the end of the year once we have jerry-rigged some LNG terminals at Wilhelmshaven. If German industry does grind to a halt and we cannot heat our homes properly for a while, so be it. 

Bucha Kyiv

Destroyed vehicles lie on the road outside Bucha, near Kyiv. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire | Mykhaylo Palinchak

How many more massacres have to be uncovered before we take our historical responsibility seriously when history actually comes calling? How many Buchas does it take before we feel ready to embargo Russian gas: two, three, four? And are we really going to wait to find out whether Putin’s army has used chemical weapons on innocent Ukrainians before we act?

READ ALSO: OPINION: Germany has been forced to learn the lessons from its post-war pacifism

Member comments

  1. Yes well. Some of us didnt vote for Merkel – you know immigrants with no voting rights. This isnt Germanys war and yet we are meant to suffer for it? Also, if the German economy goes down the tubes, the country wont be able to help Ukraine at all as we will have our own crisis to deal with. And, of course, it will have huge ramfications for the rest of the EU. You might think Germans deserve to suffer but what about people residing in other EU countries? Sanctions are only effective if they only hurt the country being sanctioned. Putin will just sell his gas to other countries. Its unlikely to hurt Russia very much at all.

  2. I get the feeling from this article that the author has never had the wolves knocking on his door. If he had, im sure he would be singing from a completely different song sheet.
    I know there are people who have turned their heating off because they can not afford it as it is. Try telling them they can’t heat their homes properly for a while. They’ve been in the cold since January.
    Cutting gas and fuel cold turkey would have worked in the 16th century where everything was locally sourced. But now we have everything coming from all over the world. We will grind to a halt. In turn grinding everyone around us to a halt aswell. Score one for globalism.

    If you really want to help Ukraine get the global banks to forgive the debt. Ukraine were making interest payments to the European investment bank (amongst others). As the bombs were falling.

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OPINION AND ANALYSIS

OPINION: Why it’s becoming harder to get a doctor’s appointment in Germany

Germany's health service is known as one of the best in the world but securing a timely appointment with a doctor is getting harder. A creaking system and the culture around excessive doctor visits are part of the problem, argues Brian Melican.

OPINION: Why it's becoming harder to get a doctor's appointment in Germany

Germans have always been known for being health-conscious – some would even say hypochondriacs. That has its down-sides (see Covid…), but also some notable advantages. One is the ability to go to any doctor’s practice and request treatment, skipping general practitioners, referrals, and all of the attendant bother.

As a result, in any well-to-do area of a major German city, you’ll have a bewildering array of medical practitioners within walking distance, from general physicians (Allgemeinmedizin) and orthopaedic practices (Orthopädie) to ones that will have you Googling (HNO stands for Hals-Nase-Ohren – ears, nose, and throat – by the way. You’re welcome.)

The strength of this patient-choice system is that it allows people to manage their own care. So if one doctor can’t see you, you go and find another. And if you’ve moved towns or fall ill away from home, you can still access care. In theory, this spreads demand and keeps people with non-urgent complaints out of casualty wards. Yet in practice, the system is now creaking audibly. 

In recent months, I’ve tried to get appointments for several routine procedures with doctors’ offices I have been visiting for years – and the earliest I could get anything was, to my surprise, now several months off. Both dentists and dermatologists are currently, it would seem, planning their schedules for September and October. And when a rather unpleasant case of shoulder pain struck earlier this year (fittingly, just ahead of my 39th birthday…), the earliest appointment I could get at any of the three(!) local orthopaedic practices was at least a month off.

This isn’t just me getting unlucky here. In a recent representative survey, only 25 percent of respondents reported having no trouble getting a doctor’s appointment. The rest are having to wait anything between two weeks and two months – and I’m clearly now one of the 15 percent who report even longer delays. 

I’m not alone in thinking – knowing – that it didn’t used to be this way. So what has gone wrong? 

READ ALSO: Seven things to know about visiting a doctor in Germany

Structural changes in medical practice: fewer doctors working fewer hours

First off, there are changes afoot among Germany’s niedergelassene Ärzte – literally ‘settled doctors’ with surgeries, called so in order to distinguish them from hospital medics. For one, these doctors are getting old and retiring – just like the population they serve (or rather: have served). And as younger cohorts are less numerous, physicians looking to pass on their practices are having difficulty finding takers – especially in disadvantaged urban areas or out in the sticks.

A patient undergoes a consultation with his doctor.

A patient undergoes a consultation with his doctor. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG | AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG

Even where there is no shortage of potential successors, ever fewer of them actually want to set up in business for themselves. For most young medics’ taste, there’s too much paperwork, too much commercial risk, and far too much work involved in running their own surgery. Instead, they prefer to merge with others or sell on to management companies who will, in turn, employ them (often part-time, with no annoying evenings or weekends on call). 

The results of all of this are as follows. Within the space of just one year, between 2022 and 2023, the number of surgeries fell by 1,987 – a drop of over two percent. Meanwhile, in 2023, for the first time ever, more than one third of Germany’s 150,000 non-hospital doctors were employees, not self-employed. That’s twice the number in 2013. Moreover, over the same period, the number of medics opting to go part-time has gone up by 235 percent to 60,000. This means that, if your local surgeries haven’t closed, the likelihood is that the doctors there are now working fewer hours – and so there are fewer appointments left to go round.

READ ALSO: Do doctors in Germany have too little time for their patients?

This would be bad news for any society, but it hits particularly hard in Germany. As a rapidly-ageing society with a relatively unhealthy population (high rates of smoking and obesity), our demand for medical services – often for complex chronic illnesses – is rising just as provision is declining.

Cultural differences in consulting doctors

Another problem is that Germans are accustomed to a historically high number of available doctors – and as serial worriers (and passionate sick-note seekers) make excessive use of them. Your average German racks up almost 10 consultations a year – not including visits to the dentists! The OECD average is closer to six. And the stoic Swedes, strong silent types that they are, go the doctor’s just 2.3 times a year.

Even if I wanted (or needed) to, I simply couldn’t to get to the quack’s almost once a month: I don’t have the time and they don’t have the appointments. But in conversation, I notice that others clearly do manage to find both. Increasingly, I’m wondering how many of them, unlike me, have private health insurance. 

This brings us to the third major issue facing non-hospital care in Germany. When the figures in the representative survey I quoted above are broken down, it transpires that almost 60 percent of people who are insured in the state system (gesetzlich versichert) are now waiting longer than two weeks for an appointment; among those who are privately insured (privat versichert), that figure is only 37 percent.

Doctors ‘keen on private patients’ 

Doctors are keen on private patients because their insurers pay more for the same procedures and will also cover all sorts of supplementary stuff – from the clinically-proven through to the just plain wacky. As such, practices reserve as many appointments as possible for private patients and try to keep the rest of us at bay.

Given that around four in five people in Germany are in the state system, however, this leaves the majority of patients competing for the minority of slots. If you want to see how the other fifth live, try “accidentally” clicking privat on surgeries’ online booking tools: you will now see a range of appointments available within days while the rest of us are being fobbed off for weeks or even months.

Not only is this, as my grandmother used to say, enough to make you want to join the Communist Party – it’s wildly inefficient. By restricting the hoi-polloi to slots often months off, doctors are creating their own appointment-management problems: sometimes, the complaint in question will have disappeared by the time the consultation rolls around; more often, it will have actually been dealt with – not infrequently by the same physician – if the patient presents as an acute case earlier.

As such, slots weeks away are booked, only to be cancelled later by conscientious patients (and left blocked by others), while those same patients crowd into waiting rooms begging to be seen urgently at an open surgery. (That’s how I got my shoulder looked at.)

A German health insurance card.

A German health insurance card. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Jens Kalaene

The cynic in me says that, in the long run, this might not be such a bad thing. If the increasing scarcity of doctor’s appointments gets Germans thinking about whether they really, really need to be seen for yet another case of the common cold (“No, Christian, it isn’t pneumonia this time, either!”) or various nebulous self-diagnosed ills (Kreislaufbeschwerden (circulatory problems) is the day-off-work-one I love to hate), maybe it’s not a bad thing.

Swedes don’t die unnecessarily because they avoid the doctor’s: in fact, they live a good year longer than us on average. The German in me, though, says: “My shoulder hurts. Maybe I’ve got early-onset arthritis. I should probably go and get it checked out…” And even though I don’t go too often, I’ve got used to being able to see a specialist when I need one. It’s a shame that this is becoming markedly more difficult.

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