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2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Macron versus Le Pen: What happens next in the French presidential election race?

We now know who will face each other in the crucial election run-off to decide the next president of France. The race for the Elysée is about to get very tense, so what happens next?

Published: 10 April 2022 20:57 CEST

France has voted in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. We take a look at what happens next. (Photo by Sameer Al-DOUMY / AFP)

The preliminary results show that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen collected the highest share of the vote in round one, and will therefore go through to the second round run-off.

So what happens next?

Second round

Now the first round is over, we move to round two, which is held on Sunday, April 24th.

This round features only two candidates – Macron and Le Pen – and the winner just needs a simple majority of the vote. Their first round scores are not carried over, they both start again with a blank slate in the hunt to get over 50 percent of the vote.

Polling stations in mainland France will open at 8am on Sunday, April 24th and then at 8pm a projection based on a small number of counted votes is published showing the winner.

Most registered voters vote in both rounds, but it’s possible to only vote in the first, only vote in the second or abstain completely. Some voters also cast a vote blanc as a kind of protest against the quality of the candidates.

Interim

So what happens between round 1 and round 2?

Debate – there is a live TV debate between the two finalists – that is scheduled for the evening of Wednesday, April 20th. This debate has taken place in every French presidential election since 1974, except for in 2002, when President Jacques Chirac refused to debate with far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Media – Expect a lot of media coverage in the next two weeks, but broadcasters are required to give equal airtime to the two candidates in the lead up to the second round vote.

Campaigning – Formal campaigning restarts after round one, with the candidates taking part in rallies, meetings and walk-abouts as they try to drum up support. All campaigning is suspended on the day before the second round vote.

What about the other candidates?

The 10 losing candidates from the first round take no formal part in the election proceedings from here on in. They can, however, have an influence the second round result by calling on their supporters to back one candidate or another.

Immediately after the first round centre right Valérie Pécresse, centre left Anne Hidalgo, green Yannick Jadot and Communist Fabien Roussel called on their supporters to vote Macron in the second round. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third and narrowly missed out on the second round, did not call for a Macron vote, but told his supporters that “not a single vote” should go to Le Pen.

These candidates will also be anxiously looking at their final poll scores – first round candidates who scored more than 5 percent of the vote can claim up to 47.5 percent of their campaign expenses back from the State, those who scored less than five percent can only claim a maximum of 4.75 percent back.

Initial results show that only four candidates – Macron, Le Pen, Mélenchon and the extreme right candidate Eric Zemmour – scored more than 5 percent. Centre-right Valerie Pécresse was hovering around the 5 percent mark so she might just scrape some money back.

And what happens after the second round?

The current presidential mandate expires on May 13th, so if France has a new president the handover of power must be completed by this date. If the incumbent wins, they simply carry on, although it’s quite common for a newly re-elected president to make some changes to their cabinet at this point.

This year, the presidential elections are shortly followed by parliamentary elections, when the French go back to the polls to elect their local MP to the Assemblée nationale.

At this point the new or newly re-elected president will see whether they can command a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament) and therefore how easy it is going to be to get their policies and reforms passed over the next five years.

Like the presidential elections, parliamentary elections are held over two rounds, this time with just a week between voting – on June 12th and June 19th.

And then in either April or May 2027 we get to do this all over again with the next presidential election.

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Azerbaijan vehemently rejects the accusation it bears responsibility for the riots that have led to the deaths of five people and rattled the Paris government.

But it is just the latest in a litany of tensions between Paris and Baku and not the first time France has accused Azerbaijan of being behind an alleged disinformation campaign.

The riots in New Caledonia, a French territory lying between Australia and Fiji, were sparked by moves to agree a new voting law that supporters of independence from France say discriminates against the indigenous Kanak population.

Paris points to the sudden emergence of Azerbaijani flags alongside Kanak symbols in the protests, while a group linked to the Baku authorities is openly backing separatists while condemning Paris.

“This isn’t a fantasy. It’s a reality,” interior minister Gérald Darmanin told television channel France 2 when asked if Azerbaijan, China and Russia were interfering in New Caledonia.

“I regret that some of the Caledonian pro-independence leaders have made a deal with Azerbaijan. It’s indisputable,” he alleged.

But he added: “Even if there are attempts at interference… France is sovereign on its own territory, and so much the better”.

“We completely reject the baseless accusations,” Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry spokesman Ayhan Hajizadeh said.

“We refute any connection between the leaders of the struggle for freedom in Caledonia and Azerbaijan.”

In images widely shared on social media, a reportage broadcast Wednesday on the French channel TF1 showed some pro-independence supporters wearing T-shirts adorned with the Azerbaijani flag.

Tensions between Paris and Baku have grown in the wake of the 2020 war and 2023 lightning offensive that Azerbaijan waged to regain control of its breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region from ethnic Armenian separatists.

France is a traditional ally of Christian Armenia, Azerbaijan’s neighbour and historic rival, and is also home to a large Armenian diaspora.

Darmanin said Azerbaijan – led since 2003 by President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Heydar – was a “dictatorship”.

On Wednesday, the Paris government also banned social network TikTok from operating in New Caledonia.

Tiktok, whose parent company is Chinese, has been widely used by protesters. Critics fear it is being employed to spread disinformation coming from foreign countries.

Azerbaijan invited separatists from the French territories of Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia and French Polynesia to Baku for a conference in July 2023.

The meeting saw the creation of the “Baku Initiative Group”, whose stated aim is to support “French liberation and anti-colonialist movements”.

The group published a statement this week condemning the French parliament’s proposed change to New Caledonia’s constitution, which would allow outsiders who moved to the territory at least 10 years ago the right to vote in its elections.

Pro-independence forces say that would dilute the vote of Kanaks, who make up about 40 percent of the population.

“We stand in solidarity with our Kanak friends and support their fair struggle,” the Baku Initiative Group said.

Raphael Glucksmann, the lawmaker heading the list for the French Socialists in June’s European Parliament elections, told Public Senat television that Azerbaijan had made “attempts to interfere… for months”.

He said the underlying problem behind the unrest was a domestic dispute over election reform, not agitation fomented by “foreign actors”.

But he accused Azerbaijan of “seizing on internal problems.”

A French government source, who asked not to be named, said pro-Azerbaijani social media accounts had on Wednesday posted an edited montage purporting to show two white police officers with rifles aimed at dead Kanaks.

“It’s a pretty massive campaign, with around 4,000 posts generated by (these) accounts,” the source told AFP.

“They are reusing techniques already used during a previous smear campaign called Olympia.”

In November, France had already accused actors linked to Azerbaijan of carrying out a disinformation campaign aimed at damaging its reputation over its ability to host the Olympic Games in Paris. Baku also rejected these accusations.