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ENERGY

What would France do if Russia cuts off the gas supply?

French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire has said that the country is making "preparations" should Russia decide to cut off the gas supply.

Published: 31 March 2022 17:30 CEST
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire announced that France was preparing for the possibility that Russia might cut off the gas supply.
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire announced that France was preparing for the possibility that Russia might cut off the gas supply. (Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / POOL / AFP)

France and Germany are preparing for a cut in Russian gas deliveries, France’s economy minister said on Thursday, as Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Moscow will turn off the taps for those who refuse to pay in rubles.

“On the sanctions against Russia, we will not accept the payment of gas in any other currency than stated in the contract,” said Bruno Le Maire following talks in Berlin with his German counterpart Robert Habeck.

“There could be a situation tomorrow in which there is no longer any Russian gas. It’s up to us to prepare for these scenarios and we are preparing.” 

On Tuesday the head of France’s main gas distribution network, Laurence Poirier-Dietz, said the government may be required to pass a load-shedding decree, in which parts of the country have gas cut off on a rotating basis to ration supply. Hospitals, schools and retirement homes would be spared. 

“We have enough gas coming from other sources and supplies to get by until next winter,” she said in an interview with Sud-Ouest. 

“The question will be asked about how to fill reserve stocks during the summer.” 

French newspaper Les Echos report that filling the reserve stocks would cost in the region of €10 billion. 

France has the option of importing gas from other countries like Norway, Libya or Azerbaijan. It also has its own supplies of subterranean gas in the northern département of Pas-de-Calais and a number of methane plants, the biggest of which is in Seine-et-Marne. 

“We can try to stimulate investment and double production capacity,” said Carole Mathieu a researcher with the French Institute of International Relations, during an interview with France Info. “That would bring us to 40 billion cubic metres at the European level, but Russia produced 155 billion cubic metres last year. There is work to do.”

The French government said that load-shedding would be a last resort. 

Earlier in March, Prime Minister Jean Castex announced that the government would seek to end French dependency on Russian gas and oil supplies by 2027. 

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POLITICS

Macron warns ‘mortal’ Europe needs credible defence

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday warned that Europe faced an existential threat from Russian aggression, calling on the continent to adopt a "credible" defence strategy less dependent on the United States.

Published: 25 April 2024 13:41 CEST
Macron warns 'mortal' Europe needs credible defence

He described Russia’s behaviour after its invasion of Ukraine as “uninhibited” and said it was no longer clear where Moscow’s “limits” lay.

Macron also sounded the alarm on what he described as disrespect of global trade rules by both Russia and China, calling on the European Union to revise its trade policy.

“Our Europe, today, is mortal and it can die,” he said.

“It can die and this depends only on our choices,” Macron said, warning that Europe was “not armed against the risks we face” in a world where the “rules of the game have changed”.

“Over the next decade… the risk is immense of (Europe) being weakened or even relegated,” he added, also pointing to the risk of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Macron returned to the same themes of a speech he gave in September 2017 months after taking office at the same location – the Sorbonne University in Paris – but in a context that seven years on has been turned upside down by Brexit, Covid and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Macron champions the concept of European strategic autonomy in economy and defence, arguing that Europe needs to face crises like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without relying on the US.

He urged Europe to be more a master of its own destiny, saying in the past it was over-dependent on Russia for energy and Washington for security.

He said the indispensable “sine qua non” for European security was “that Russia does not win the war of aggression in Ukraine”.

“We need to build this strategic concept of a credible European defence for ourselves,” Macron said, adding Europe could not be “a vassal” of the United States.

He said he would ask European partners for proposals in the next months and added that Europe also needed its own capacity in cyberdefence and cybersecurity.

Macron said preference should be given to European suppliers in the purchase of military equipment and backed the idea of a European loan to finance this effort.

Macron also called for a “revision” of EU trade policy to defend European interests, accusing both China and the United States of no longer respecting the rules of global commerce.

“It cannot work if we are the only ones in the world to respect the rules of trade — as they were written up 15 years ago — if the Chinese and the Americans no longer respect them by subsidising critical sectors.”

Macron is, after Brexit and the departure from power of German chancellor Angela Merkel, often seen by commentators as Europe’s number one leader.

But his party is facing embarrassment in June’s European elections, ranking well behind the far-right in opinion polls and even risking coming third behind the Socialists.

The head of the governing party’s list for the elections, the little-known Valerie Hayer, is failing to make an impact, especially in the face of the high-profile 28-year-old Jordan Bardella leading the far right and Raphael Glucksmann emerging as a new star on the left.

Macron made no reference to the elections in his speech, even though analysts say he is clearly seeking to wade into the campaign, with his speech reading as a manifesto for the continent’s future.

“The risk is that Europe will experience a decline and we are already starting to see this despite all our efforts,” he warned.

“We are still too slow and not ambitious enough,” he added, urging a “powerful Europe”, which “is respected”, “ensures its security” and regains “its strategic autonomy”.

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