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POLITICS

Germany warns Russia of ‘high cost’ of Ukraine aggression

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned on Friday that Russia would pay a "considerable and serious price" if it invades Ukraine.

Annalena Baerbock and Antony Blinken
German Foreign Secretary Annalena Baerbock and US Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken speak at a press conference in Berlin on Thursday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Pool | Kay Nietfeld

In a phone call on Thursday evening, the two leaders agreed that “further military aggression by Russia against Ukraine must be averted”, the German chancellery said in a statement.

Downing Street said Scholz and Johnson had “shared their deep concern at the ongoing destabilising action by Russia in Ukraine, and said any invasion into Ukraine would be a severe strategic mistake”.

“The prime minister stressed the importance of NATO allies working together on a coordinated response,” it said in a statement.

Fears are mounting that a major conflict could break out in Europe as tens of thousands of Russian troops mass on Ukraine’s border, along with an arsenal of tanks, fighting vehicles, artillery and missiles.

In a bid to defuse the worst tensions between Russia and the West in decades, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a whirlwind diplomatic tour that took him to Berlin on Thursday before a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Friday.

Speaking to journalists in Berlin, Blinken warned that Russia risked reviving Europe’s dangerous Cold War era of division as it threatens Ukraine.

“To allow Russia to violate those principles with impunity would drag us all back to a much more dangerous and unstable time, when this continent, and this city, were divided in two… with the threat of all-out war hanging over everyone’s heads,” he said.

The United States and its allies have warned Moscow of grave consequences if “any” of the troops massed on the border were to cross the border into Ukraine.

READ ALSO: Germany’s Scholz supports Ukraine amid Russian invasion fears

‘Grave consequences’

Appearing alongside Blinken, German Foreign Secretary Annalena Baerbock urged Russia to “take steps towards deescalation”. 

“Any further aggressive stance, any further aggression, would have grave consequences,” she said. “Nothing less is at stake than the preservation of the European peace order.”

Baerbock added that the Western allies would not shy away from taking action, even if that included measures that “could have economic consequences for ourselves”.

The recently completed — but not yet certified — Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is due to double Russian gas supplies to Germany, has long been seen as a possible bargaining chip in the crisis.

READ ALSO: German regulator suspends Nord Stream 2 approval process

Although Germany has previously insisted the pipeline was merely a commercial project and should not be halted for political reasons, Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently said “everything” was on the table.

Moscow insists it has no plans to invade Ukraine but has at the same time laid down a series of security demands — including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO — in exchange for de-escalation.

In London, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said any Russian incursion into Ukraine “would be a disaster for the world”.

Member comments

  1. Olaf Sholz won’t do anything apart from complain to Russia. We can’t complain too much though, we can’t have Russia turn off the taps. They’ve got us by the short and curleys.

    This is what green policies do. This will bite us in the arse hard. Fun times 2022.

    1. Reliance on gas energy is not a “green policy”. It is, on the contrary, a consequence of not enough green policies. This is one area where taking action to mitigate the climate emergency and foreign policy are entirely in sync. Green energy = independent energy.

      1. And shutting down nuclear power plants? Nuclear is currently the best option we have for reliable clean energy. Granted we need to figure out the waste problem. But there are ways to use the waste for more energy.

        The only green policies that we take is to turn off everything that might pollute and then figure out how to keep the lights on. Resulting in the reliance on gas. ( Germany has the lowest reserves of gas scince 2012 and has never needed as much as we do now.)

        The green policies were using are environmental disasters for the future. Weve just taken a huge punt and kicked the can further down the road by about 10 years. ( the typical space between these “emergencies “. Where all the rich people take private jets to fly all over the world to tell us stupid people not to travel. The next one is in Egypt. If it was such a problem why can’t they use zoom?)

        Take a look at electric cars. You need one to run about 20 years to offset the carbon footprint of building it but the battery has a life span of 10 years. Youll never catch up. And the cars still use tremendous amount of oil.Lets not get started on the mining of lithium which in itself is a disaster. Let alone disposal.
        We have better options but its all about the money.

        You need to stop thinking of the climate as an emergency. In an emergency people panic and make stupid mistakes. The climate is going to change. Its done that before we were here its going to do it once we are gone.
        We need to mitigate the impact we have on the environment. For example plastic face masks have gone in our oceans their prevalence is up over 9.000% since 2019. How hard is it to dispose of them correctly?

        If you want to truly sort out climate change. You need to fix peoples time horizon. If there are people who are having to think of; do I heat or, do I eat. They won’t care about the environment. They are worried about today and tomorrow. They can’t think about 10 years time because they have huge problems within the next 24 hours.
        Green policies only serve to make the poor. Poorer. Which lowers time horizon. Which lessen how much people care about the environment.

        If you want to fix climate change fix this problem and I guarantee our impact on the environment would be reduced. Or we could keep adding carbon taxes to fuel at the petrol station while the EU exempts private yachts and aircraft. If the poor can’t afford fuel they can’t pollute.

        1. Spot on.

          Most people are concerned about the “here and now” with their day-to-day lives, and not about achieving “climate neutrality” within 25 years. Hard for people to relate to this concept; it’s something you can’t taste, touch or feel.

          It’s going to take decades to replace fossil fuel with suitable renewable energy, and a detailed transition plan to make it happen. One cannot simply turn off reliance on fossil fuel and go “green” overnight. It will require fossil fuel and sufficient time to make this transition in a smart, prudent fashion.

  2. Germany should remember that its own re-unification only happened because certain other countries stood firm against the Soviets. Those same countries now expect Germany to show a bit of backbone and cut out the double-talk, no-fly zones for Brit military and demonstrate they’re a proper ally.

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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