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COVID-19 STATS

More than a quarter of people in Spain have had Covid-19: Health Ministry

Official data may show that more than 8 million people in Spain have had Covid-19, but the country’s Health Ministry has admitted that a lack of case reporting throughout the pandemic could mean that at least 4 million more have been infected. 

 People walk on the promenade at Barceloneta Beach in Barcelona on December 31, 2021. (Photo by Pau BARRENA / AFP)
The true number of Covid-19 infection in Spain may never be known. (Photo by Pau BARRENA / AFP)

If you have the feeling that more people in your circle in Spain have Covid than at any other stage of the pandemic, you may be right.

Record daily infections, a spiking infection rate that is reportedly slowing down but still growing and the higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant are all ensuring that Covid-19 is now more prevalent than ever. 

On January 14th, Spain officially hit 8 million infections out of a population of 47 million, meaning that roughly 1 in every 6 people in the country has officially been infected with Covid-19. 

However, sources from Spain’s Health Ministry have been willing to admit that the real number of infections is considerably higher, estimating there have been at least 12 million cases, Catalan daily La Vanguardia reported on Sunday. These four million extra infections would mean that more than 25 percent of Spain’s total population has had Covid-19.

Before the Omicron variant, which has led to 2.6 million infections in the last month and a half in Spain, up to 70 percent of cases were successfully tracked and traced, ministerial sources say, a rate which is now far lower.

According to Rafael Ortí, head of the Spanish Society of Preventive Medicine, the real number of positive cases is most likely “double or triple” what is shown in the daily roundups announced by Spain’s Health Ministry.

It’s well reported that during Spain’s first wave that started in March 2020, health authorities didn’t have the testing system in place to compile accurate infection data, but even since health professionals across the country were briefed and equipped with the tools to correctly report cases, underreporting has continued. 

Only six Spanish regions notify the country’s epidemiological surveillance system the results of antigens tests performed at home: Catalonia, Navarra, Galicia, Aragon, the Canary Islands and La Rioja.

The other 11 autonomous governments only report cases confirmed by public health services or by pharmacies.

Antigen tests carried out at home now represent around 45 percent of the total number of tests carried out in Spain. In the week leading up to Christmas, seven million rapid self-tests were sold in the country. 

If people who discover they have Covid-19 fail to inform health authorities about it, there is no telling how many positive cases could have gone unreported.

Track and trace teams estimate that Spain’s real infection rate under the Omicron variant could be twice as high as that reported, citing as reasons for this their own understaffed and overworked teams, the high number of asymptomatic cases and the prevalence of Covid self-tests. 

“The tracking system is overwhelmed with so many infections and variants,” Preventive Medicine specialist Juan Antonio Sánz told Spanish daily Voz Populi.

“My impression is that, of the infections that are registered in the surveillance system, there are at least as many cases that are escaping tracking”.

According to the Spanish Institute of Health Carlos III, more than half of cases in Spain during this sixth coronavirus wave have been asymptomatic. 

It may never be possible for Spanish epidemiologists to truly know just how many people in Spain have contracted the virus over the past 22 months. 

But with authorities seemingly incapable of keeping a handle on the numbers, it’s no surprise that the Spanish government is set to stop looking at the infection rate as a means of evaluating the pandemic and replace it with the less rigorous system used for monitoring seasonal flu.

READ MORE: Spain’s health experts divided over whether Covid-19 should be treated like flu

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COVID-19 ALERT

Covid-19: European summer holidays threatened by rise of subvariants

A resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Europe, this time driven by new, fast-spreading Omicron subvariants, is once again threatening to disrupt people's summer plans.

Covid-19: European summer holidays threatened by rise of subvariants

Several Western European nations have recently recorded their highest daily case numbers in months, due in part to Omicron sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5.

The increase in cases has spurred calls for increased vigilance across a continent that has relaxed most if not all coronavirus restrictions.

The first resurgence came in May in Portugal, where BA.5 propelled a wave that hit almost 30,000 cases a day at the beginning of June. That wave has since started to subside, however.

READ ALSO: KEY POINTS: German Health Ministry lays out autumn Covid plan

Italy recorded more than 62,700 cases on Tuesday, nearly doubling the number from the previous week, the health ministry said. 

Germany meanwhile reported more than 122,000 cases on Tuesday. 

France recorded over 95,000 cases on Tuesday, its highest daily number since late April, representing a 45-percent increase in just a week.

Austria this Wednesday recorded more than 10,000 for the first time since April.

READ ALSO: Italy’s transport mask rule extended to September as Covid rate rises

Cases have also surged in Britain, where there has been a seven-fold increase in Omicron reinfection, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The ONS blamed the rise on the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, but also said Covid fell to the sixth most common cause of death in May, accounting for 3.3 percent of all deaths in England and Wales.

BA.5 ‘taking over’

Mircea Sofonea, an epidemiologist at the University of Montpellier, said Covid’s European summer wave could be explained by two factors.

READ ALSO: 11,000 new cases: Will Austria reintroduce restrictions as infection numbers rise?

One is declining immunity, because “the protection conferred by an infection or a vaccine dose decreases in time,” he told AFP.

The other came down to the new subvariants BA.4 and particularly BA.5, which are spreading more quickly because they appear to be both more contagious and better able to escape immunity.

Olivier Schwartz, head of the virus and immunity unit at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, said BA.5 was “taking over” because it is 10 percent more contagious than BA.2.

“We are faced with a continuous evolution of the virus, which encounters people who already have antibodies — because they have been previously infected or vaccinated — and then must find a selective advantage to be able to sneak in,” he said.

READ ALSO: Tourists: What to do if you test positive for Covid in France

But are the new subvariants more severe?

“Based on limited data, there is no evidence of BA.4 and BA.5 being associated with increased infection severity compared to the circulating variants BA.1 and BA.2,” the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said last week.

But rising cases can result in increasing hospitalisations and deaths, the ECDC warned.

Could masks be making a comeback over summer? (Photo by OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP)

Alain Fischer, who coordinates France’s pandemic vaccine strategy, warned that the country’s hospitalisations had begun to rise, which would likely lead to more intensive care admissions and eventually more deaths.

However, in Germany, virologist Klaus Stohr told the ZDF channel that “nothing dramatic will happen in the intensive care units in hospitals”.

Return of the mask? 

The ECDC called on European countries to “remain vigilant” by maintaining testing and surveillance systems.

“It is expected that additional booster doses will be needed for those groups most at risk of severe disease, in anticipation of future waves,” it added.

Faced with rising cases, last week Italy’s government chose to extend a requirement to wear medical grade FFP2 masks on public transport until September 30.

“I want to continue to recommend protecting yourself by getting a second booster shot,” said Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza, who recently tested positive for Covid.

READ ALSO: Spain to offer fourth Covid-19 vaccine dose to ‘entire population’

Fischer said France had “clearly insufficient vaccination rates” and that a second booster shot was needed.

Germany’s government is waiting on expert advice on June 30 to decide whether to reimpose mandatory mask-wearing rules indoors.

The chairman of the World Medical Association, German doctor Frank Ulrich Montgomery, has recommended a “toolbox” against the Covid wave that includes mask-wearing, vaccination and limiting the number of contacts.

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