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ECONOMY

Soaring prices fuel anti-ECB sentiment in Germany

As inflation soars to its highest level in three decades in Germany, people are worried about whether the European Central Bank has things under control.

The ECB headquarters in Frankfurt.
The ECB headquarters in Frankfurt. Photo: dpa | Boris Roessler

Simon and Lena Wendland, parents of newborn twins, say that their lives have become more uncertain. Their power supplier has just announced it is doubling its electricity prices, while property prices are looking “rather scary”.

“We don’t know where this is going to lead us,” Simon Wendland told AFP.

From energy and food, to paper and rent, prices have been marching mercilessly higher both in Germany and across Europe.

Latest data put inflation in Europe’s biggest economy at five percent year-on-year, a level not seen in the last 30 years.

Bild, the country’s biggest-selling newspaper, blames the European Central Bank for failing to rein in prices and even adding to the problem with its cheap money policy.

The Frankfurt-based ECB has argued that its record-low interest rates and 1.85-trillion-euro ($2.15-trillion) pandemic emergency bond-buying programme are necessary to prop up an economy ravaged by the coronavirus crisis.

In Germany, however, savers believe the ECB’s zero-interest-rate policy is eating away at the value of their assets.

Bild recently branded ECB chief Christine Lagarde as “Madame Inflation”, saying she “wears Chanel clothes” but “mocks the fate of pensioners, employees and savers”, even if the central bank president has herself expressed concern about the rising price of basic foodstuffs in supermarkets.

Scepticism

With its ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years, the ECB has long been a bugbear for Germany’s savers.

Bild had nicknamed Lagarde’s predecessor Mario Draghi “Draghila”, comparing him to a vampire “sucking our accounts to the last drop”.

After the devastation wrought by the inflationary crises of the 1920s and 1970s, Germans have an ingrained fear of inflation, said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

Lagarde’s repeated assertion that recent price surges are transitional is met with disbelief in Europe’s most populous country.

“According to Madame Lagarde, we will have overcome all that by the middle of next year, but that’s just what she says,” said Marlott Kroeber, a 72-year-old former teacher.

German bankers, too, have voiced scepticism about Lagarde’s assessment.

“There are more and more indications that this price surge is not temporary and we will have to live with it beyond this year,” said Commerzbank chief Manfred Knof.

Christian Sewing, his counterpart at Deutsche Bank, has similarly urged central banks to “find a way to exit their very accomodative monetary policy,” and the “sooner the better”.

Last defender

Germany’s central bank chief Jens Weidmann recently dropped a bombshell by announcing his resignation from the powerful Bundesbank at the end of this year.

Weidmann, who has headed the Bundesbank for a decade, was often seen as a lone voice against the ECB’s ultra-loose policy.

So with him leaving, “the last defender of the German saver has given up,” said Die Welt newspaper in a tribute to the central banker.

Nevertheless, analysts argue that the ECB has safeguarded the eurozone’s prosperity with its policies.

Critics forget “that the institution has also ensured that the economy continues to be given support, that the eurozone is maintained and the German job market sees a boom” not seen in 20 years, said Brzeski.

Employees have also been able to benefit from a strong economy while the state has been able to take out loans at negative rates.

Some consumers are therefore still in the camp of the ECB.

Pensioner Hermann Vogt for one believes that the central bank is “doing mostly what is necessary” in the interests of the 19-nation zone.

SEE ALSO: How to protect your savings against inflation in Germany

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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