To put it bluntly: German dual citizenship laws are a mess. Officially, the country has always discouraged double citizenship especially for non-EU nationals, with exceptions for those who can find their way through a characteristically Kafkaesque maze of bureaucratic loopholes. This means that many people face renouncing their previous citizenship to get a German passport.

But holding German citizenship – along with your origin country – has major perks. For example, you’d then have full voting rights, including for the federal vote like the one held on September 26th, along with free movement around Europe like other citizens of EU member states. 

However, in the run-up to polling day, it seemed that many German political parties said they were willing to liberalise the law. Willing – but how determined? What would it take for a more permissive policy to make it from the depths of a campaign platform paper, through the election cycle and the minefield of coalition negotiations, onto a to-do list of a signed Koalitionsvertrag (contract) into a bill of a governing party in the Bundestag, and finally emerge as the new law of the land? And why is this niche issue worth the hassle?

For a start, a majority of the main German political parties do support some form of expanding access to dual citizenship. Their visions differ widely in the details – for an overview, check out our explainer:

READ ALSO: Where do Germany’s political parties stand on dual citizenship and nationalities? 

Those varying visions get even more complicated when considered in combination, inevitably facing some sort of compromise and horse-trading during coalition negotiations, which in 2021 will likely include three ruling parties. After the election, it’s still anything but certain which party will secure the chancellorship, much less which coalition will ultimately manage Germany’s affairs and set the legislative agenda for the next four years.

“Momentum lies with Scholz and the Social Democrats but the polls have been changing so quickly that it’s impossible to tell which party will get most seats,” Marcel Dirsus, a German policy expert at Kiel University, told The Local before the vote. 

“And because of the way the German political system works, the candidate of the biggest party might not actually end up being Chancellor if they fail to build a coalition. Who wins this election is anyone’s guess.”

ANALYSIS: Who could be in Germany’s next coalition government?

Isabelle Borucki, political scientist at the University of Siegen and the University of Duisburg-Essen, also emphasised the complexity of the current dual citizenship law and the uncertainty of its political prospects.

“From the German perspective, dual nationality for citizens of the European Union and Switzerland is no problem at all, and is permitted,” Borucki pointed out.

But for countries outside of the EU without special loopholes, multinationality remains a problem. Is there hope? “Yes, I think a liberalisation of these rules could come to pass, but that will essentially depend upon which parties end up forming the new government,” she said.

READ ALSO: What you need to know about dual citizenship in Germany

Political paint swatches: so what happens when the new government forms?

In lieu of an obvious winner, let’s break down the main possibilities for the next ruling coalition, and the likely fate of dual citizenship under each.

Jamaika (black-yellow-green like the Jamaican flag, CDU/CSU-FDP-Grüne)

It seems unlikely that the nationality law would see a liberalisation under Jamaika. How unlikely depends on how the voting percentages play out: in any constellation where the Union retained the relative majority, the Greens and Liberals would probably not manage to push this item through.

If the Greens had the relative majority, maybe things would look different – or maybe not. Any coalition contract involves compromise, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Greens forgot about a few side goals, especially those that only really matter to non-voting immigrants, in order to rescue their climate agenda and other central issues. As for the FDP, the Liberals won’t capture the biggest chunk of the vote in a Jamaika scenario, but their presence could at least weight the scales in favor of a more permissive policy.

Schwarz-Grün (black-green, CDU/CSU-Grüne)

Same deal as Jamaika, just without the FDP – and if the Union has the better bargaining position, forget it. In places where Black-Green rules at the state level, the legislative agenda proves rather conservative. The Greens would use their negotiating power for their top issue, which is the climate, and look for compromise on other hot-button issues like affordable living space. Double citizenship, in this constellation, would probably not survive the coalition talks.

Grün-Schwarz (green-black, Grüne-CDU/CSU)

Again, with the Greens capturing a greater percentage of the vote and therefore having more power at the negotiating table, you’d want to be optimistic. However, the Greens would probably run into fierce resistance from the Union on this issue, and would have to pick their battles. Climate and various social agenda items are going to have a higher priority.

Ampel (red-yellow-green, SPD-FDP-Grüne)

The so-called traffic light coalition is one of two plausible scenarios in which the chances for a more open citizenship law look quite rosy. All three parties support it in one way or another. The devil is in the details, but with the Union blockade out of the way, there’d be no reason for them to fail to pass it, other than sheer forgetfulness.

Schwarz-Rot-Grün / Kenia (black-red-green like the Kenyan flag, CDU/CSU-SPD-Grüne)

The rare “Kenia” coalition presents a similar set of questions as Jamaika. Can any parties get this issue past Union resistance? Do any parties care enough, potentially leaving some other goal on the table to do so? If SPD and Greens both turned in strong percentages and the Union did abysmally, perhaps this issue could squeak through the talks. Otherwise it seems unlikely.

Schwarz-Rot-Gelb / Deutschland (black-red-yellow like the German flag, CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP)

Same deal as the other “flag” coalitions. It’s all about relative bargaining power. SPD and FDP both want to liberalise the policy, but when the grueling negotiations enter their third month and everyone’s still busy fighting over taxes and housing, will they remember that they want it? Doubtful.

Rot-Rot-Grün (red-red-green, SPD-Linke-Grüne)

This is the second coalition under which the chances of a new dawn for multiple citizenships seem decent. As long as they didn’t spend all their time mired down in various boondoggles like the red-red-green Berlin state government, there’s no reason these three parties couldn’t pass a more progressive immigration law, including the issue of dual nationality.

Große Koalition or GroKo (black-red, CDU/CSU-SPD)

Probably not. We’ve seen this constellation before, many times (this is the current set-up with Chancellor Angela Merkel of the CCU as Chancellor), and the SPD have never decided to take a stance and die on the hill of double citizenship.

What can we gather from this?

Experts say even if a dual-citizenship-friendly coalition enters the Bundestag, the issue still won’t be at the front of the queue as it tends not to affect the majority. 

Yet with an estimated roughly 10 million people living in the country without German citizenship – and with calls to allow more skilled migrants into the workforce to fill jobs – relaxing laws would affect many people – and possible future voters. 

Ursula Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, summed up the political inertia on multinationality. “By my assessment, citizenship law remains a topic in Germany that is still regarded with a certain scepticism,” Münch said.

“As far as I can see, the parties which are in favour of a liberalisation, on principle, do harbour worries that the associated political fight would be exploited by the AfD for their own ends.”

Eyeing the ascendance of the Social Democrats in recent polls, she issued a nuanced prediction: “I would expect that an SPD-led federal government would aspire to a liberalisation, but that the issue would not have top priority, and – I assume – the approval of multinationality would be tied to prerequisites.”