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ECONOMY

Pension reform, investment, new jobs – Macron unveils France’s post-Covid recovery plan

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced a series of economic measures, looking beyond the pandemic, although the much-anticipated pensions reform will be delayed until Covid is "under control".

Pension reform, investment, new jobs - Macron unveils France's post-Covid recovery plan
A nurse watches Macron's TV address on Monday. Photo: JEAN-FRANCOIS MONIER / AFP.

Obligatory vaccines and the extension of the health pass made the headlines following Macron’s live TV address on Monday evening, but the President also sketched out his vision for France’s post-Covid economy.

Some of the measures he announced represent a return to the priorities he set at the beginning of his tenure, while others have been shaped by the pandemic.

Pension reform

There had been much speculation about a return of controversial plans to reform France’s retirement system, which were shelved at the start of the pandemic.

Macron confirmed that he planned to raise the retirement age – most people can currently retire at 62, but a number of ministers have been pushing to raise the legal minimum to 64.

READ ALSO France to tackle fourth Covid wave with stricter border controls, health passports and compulsory vaccines

“Because we are living longer, we will have to work longer, and retire later,” Macron said. “Not tomorrow, not brutally, and not in a uniform way because we will take the difficulty of a job into consideration.”

The government will begin consultations with workers and employers in September, but “will not undertake the reform so long as the epidemic is not under control and the recovery guaranteed,” Macron said.

This could mean his plans are not implemented before the presidential election in April 2022.

Macron also returned to a controversial point from the 2019 reform plan which lead to widespread protests: the abolition of the country’s 42 different pension regimes, which currently mean many public-sector workers can retire early. Under the new plans, these special regimes will be abolished for new employees, but people currently employed can keep the generous exceptions.

EXPLAINED: What are France’s special pension regimes?

The plan also includes a minimum pension of €1,000 per month after a full career. “A life of work must offer a dignified pension,” Macron said.

Unemployment reform

Changes to unemployment benefits will be “fully implemented” on October 1st. The reform was supposed to come into effect on July 1st, but in June, France’s Council of State decided to suspend certain elements regarding the way benefits are calculated.

“Uncertainties around the economic situation do not allow for implementing, at this moment, these new rules which are meant to support job stability by making benefits less attractive for workers alternating between short contracts and inactivity,” that decision stated.

“In France, you must earn a better living by working than by staying at home, which is currently not always the case,” Macron said on Tuesday.

From September, the government will also launch “a massive plan for the training and retraining of the long-term unemployed”.

“We have seen during this crisis the strength of our social model,” Macron said. “It’s a jewel we need to preserve. This social model rests on one foundation: work.”

Investment plan

During his address, Macron also emphasised the importance of economic sovereignty, and said an investment plan would be unveiled in the autumn following consultations this summer. The objective is “to build the France of 2030”, and to “reindustrialise, reconcile growth with ecological production”.

“We saw during this crisis the consequences of dependence,” Macron said, calling for French and European independence with regards to technology and primary resources.

Last month, the President announced a series of measures designed to stimulate French innovation in healthcare technology.

Support for young and old

Finally, Macron announced additional support for those who have been hardest hit by the pandemic – young people “who sacrificed so much even though there was little risk for themselves”, and elderly people “who more than others feared for their lives”.

In September, the government will unveil a new revenu d’engagement (commitment-based income) for young people not in education, employment or training. This “will be founded on rights and responsibilities”. This could resemble the garantie jeunes, a monthly benefit for 16 to 25-year-olds not in employment or training, created under François Hollande’s government.

For the older generation, Macron avoided specifics. “We owe them a great humanist ambition for independence, strengthened home care, modernised retirement homes,” he said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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