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Can Germany’s Greens win over voters in eastern states ahead of election?

Long popular in western cities, Germany's Greens are bumping up against a wall with voters in the ex-communist east that could cost them the chance to snatch Chancellor Angela Merkel's crown when she retires this year.

Can Germany's Greens win over voters in eastern states ahead of election?
Green co-leader and chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the regional election there. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentralbild | Klaus-Dietmar Gabbert

The now 40-year-old centre-left ecologist party will gather from Friday for a congress to plot the course toward September’s general election after a bruising performance last Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt state.

The poor vote showing cemented an image of lost momentum for the party, which for the first time in its history is staking a claim to the chancellery. 

READ ALSO: Merkel’s conservatives win last state vote before election

“The Greens are still both: potentially the strongest political force in the country and a small niche party, depending on the place, time and
situation,” news weekly Der Spiegel said.

Despite ambitions for a double-digit result, the Greens notched up just six percent in the country’s poorest state – less than a point higher than their 2016 score.

“It wasn’t what we had hoped,” admitted a dejected Annalena Baerbock, also 40, the Greens’ chancellor candidate.

“Some of our messaging on climate protection failed to cut through to the voters,” she said, despite devastating droughts in the rural region in recent summers.

READ ALSO: Merkel’s CDU gains momentum after victory in key German state vote

“In the east, which is still marked by the shock of reunification, potentially costly ecological measures are not a big draw for voters,”  political scientist Hajo Funke told AFP.

The election handed Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) a resounding win with 37 percent of the vote, pushing the far-right AfD into a distant second place with 21 percent.

The strong outcome put wind in the sails of CDU leader Armin Laschet, Baerbock’s main opponent to run Europe’s top economy after 16 years of Merkel at the helm.

Two-horse race 

The Greens, out of federal government since 2005, had been riding high at the national level, with voters telling pollsters the climate crisis is their  top concern, albeit by a much larger margin in the west.

A survey last month also showed Germans hungry for change, with more than 60 percent hoping for a new government after the election.

Senior Greens say they are happy the campaign is shaping up as a two-horse race, and that excitement about the youthful Baerbock, a mother of two small children, has endured among their energised base.

But they acknowledge Baerbock, who is from the west but represents an eastern constituency outside Berlin in parliament, will have to make the
Greens more than an one-issue party if they hope to win outright.

Greens co-leader Robert Habeck said the weekend election disappointment served as a wake-up call that they would need to “look beyond climate protection”.

He cited addressing the growing cleft between rural poverty and urban wealth, particularly in creating opportunities for young jobseekers, and
expanding public transport infrastructure as sure vote winners.

He acknowledged that the “enormous political effort” required to bring down carbon dioxide emissions would have to be accompanied by “social measures” to cushion the blow to those whose jobs would be shed in the energy transition.

The party is also planning a targeted campaign for voters over the age of 60 in both east and west, arguing that “climate protection is also a policy for your grandkids”.

‘Bad luck and slip-ups’

But beyond the issues preoccupying voters in the east, whose economic output continues to lag behind the west three decades after reunification, a series of gaffes by Baerbock in recent weeks has taken some of the shine off.

“There wasn’t a Baerbock effect in the Saxony-Anhalt election – if anything she probably weighed the state party down with oversights, bad luck
and slip-ups,” business newspaper Handelsblatt said.

A failure to declare to parliament a bonus she received from the party and inaccuracies – since corrected – on her CV have undermined the party’s message of improved transparency.

READ ALSO: Will Germany’s Greens face tougher election race after series of gaffes?

Comments by Habeck on a visit to Kiev last month appearing to back supplying arms to Ukraine added to negative headlines, even if he quickly
rowed them back.

Green proposals for hiking petrol prices and eliminating domestic flights in favour of rail and bus connections have also gone down badly in some quarters.

Senior Green officials admit it will be an uphill battle to counter conservative bids to paint them as a party just for latte-sipping, electric
vehicle-driving urbanites.

“We have got to keep working on making clear that we are a party at home in cities and the countryside,” parliamentary group leader Katrin  Goering-Eckardt, who is from the eastern state of Thuringia, told public radio.

By Mathieu FOULKES and Deborah COLE
                       
   

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ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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