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Merkel’s conservatives win last state vote before general election

Angela Merkel's conservatives scored a convincing win at state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, seeing off a threat from the far-right AfD in the final regional poll before the first election in 16 years not to feature the veteran chancellor.

Published: 6 June 2021 18:27 CEST

Merkel's conservatives win last state vote before general election

CDU supporters react to the results in Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt. Photo: Bernd Von Jutrczenka/DPA

The CDU under new party chief Armin Laschet won between 35 and 36 percent of the vote, exit polls showed, with the anti-immigration party on between 22.5 and 23.5 percent.

Pollsters had foreseen a neck-and-neck race between the CDU and the AfD, with one survey for the Bild daily even predicting the far-right party would win a state poll for the first time.

Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany’s smallest states with a population of just 2.2 million, but Sunday’s clear victory gives the conservatives and their new leader Armin Laschet a big boost in the run-up to Germany’s national election on September 26th.

“This is essentially a sensationally good result,” CDU general secretary Paul Ziemiak said.

“CDU has won this eleciton clearly. Today is a good day.”

Merkel’s party has been a dominant force in the eastern region for decades, topping all but one edition of state elections there since reunification in 1990.

‘Clear profile’

But the AfD established a strong foothold there in 2016, having capitalised on anger over Merkel’s decision to allow in a wave of migrants from conflict-torn countries such as Syria in 2015.

In that election, the CDU scooped 30 percent, forming a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens. The AfD won 24 percent.

Although support for the AfD at the national level has stagnated at around 10 to 12 percent in recent months, the party continues to hold its own in the former East German states.

Nevertheless, the party has failed to increase its share of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, despite recent moves to attract voters by styling itself as the party bashing Merkel’s tough shutdown measures during the pandemic.

The result is also a huge boost for Armin Laschet, who was nominated as the conservative chancellor candidate in April but had faced a series of setbacks as Merkel prepares to bow out.

Support for the CDU had plummeted earlier in the year amid anger over the government’s pandemic management and a corruption scandal involving shady coronavirus mask contracts.

At Germany’s last regional elections in March — in the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg — the CDU suffered its worst ever results in both states.

But the mood has picked up in Germany in recent weeks with the country’s vaccination campaign gathering pace and large parts of the country reopening after months of shutdowns.

Laschet has promised to maintain the CDU as the “force of the political middle ground”.

Ziemiak credited Laschet for the strong showing Sunday, underlining his participation in the campaign there along with Saxony-Anhalt’s state premier Reiner Haseloff.

The result was “the largest increase (in vote share) in a state election since the victory of the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017” — a win that Laschet had scooped for the CDU at that time.

Laschet, who is state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, had succeeded in attracting voters by standing for “unity and a clear profile” on major structural changes in the region, said Ziemiak.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.