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‘CDU in weak position’: Merkel’s conservatives face crucial test in Germany’s regional elections

Angela Merkel's conservatives could face a far-right upset at key state polls on Sunday, the last big test of Germany's political mood before the first general election in 16 years not to feature the veteran chancellor.

Published: 3 June 2021 09:08 CEST

'CDU in weak position': Merkel's conservatives face crucial test in Germany's regional elections

Residents enjoying the sun in Halle, Saxony-Anhalt on Wednesday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentralbild | Peter Endig

Surveys have placed the extreme-right AfD neck-and-neck with Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, with a recent poll by the Bild daily even predicting the anti-immigration party will – for the first time – win a regional vote.

Victory for the AfD would be a devastating blow for the conservatives just four months ahead of Germany’s national election on September 26th, and could further weaken the already fragile standing of Merkel’s would-be successor Armin Laschet.

“The CDU is in a relatively weak position in the polls, as is Laschet,” said political scientist Hajo Funke of Berlin’s Free University.

“If it turns out that the AfD is slightly stronger than the CDU on Sunday, then there could be debates about personnel in the CDU, and thus a weakening of the entire situation of the CDU,” Funke said.

Merkel’s party has been a dominant force in Saxony-Anhalt for decades, topping all but one edition of state elections there since reunification in
1990.

In 2016, the CDU scooped 30 percent, forming a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens. The AfD won 24 percent.

But the conservatives have taken a hammering in the polls as Merkel prepares to bow out, hurt by anger over the government’s pandemic management and a corruption scandal involving shady coronavirus mask contracts.

They are also reeling from a very public tug of war for the post of chancellor candidate between CDU chief Laschet and Markus Soeder, head of the smaller Bavarian sister party CSU.

Laschet, who prevailed in that battle but has since suffered dismal public approval ratings, faces his first real test in Sunday’s election.

‘Rude awakening’

Even if the AfD wins the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, the party will not be able to govern as all the other parties have ruled out forming an alliance with it.

But a win for the far-right party would still be a “rude awakening” for the CDU, as Laschet put it during an appearance on the campaign trail in Magdeburg last week.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a press conference in the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany, on May 21st, 2021. Michael Sohn / POOL / AFP

Although support nationally has stagnated at around 10 to 12 percent for the AfD in recent months, in Saxony-Anhalt – as in other former East German states – the party has long had a strong base of support.

Its recent move to style itself as the party bashing Merkel’s tough shutdown measures during the pandemic has also cemented its reputation as the anti-establishment party, attracting support beyond its core base of anti-immigration voters.

Losing to the AfD, whose leading candidate in the region is a relative unknown nationally, would be, as Spiegel magazine puts it, “a disaster” for
Laschet.

“Laschet urgently needs a success to rally the Union behind him for the national election campaign,” said the magazine.

“The last thing he would need is a renewed debate about the AfD within his party, which would become unstoppable in case of an election defeat in Saxony-Anhalt.”

‘Momentum from Berlin’

Meanwhile, the Greens, who are vying for top place nationally against Merkel’s conservatives, could also draw votes away from the CDU in
Saxony-Anhalt.

The party, which has traditionally struggled in the former East Germany, looks set to double its share of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt from 5 percent in 2016 to around 10 percent this time.

“It has been a very exciting election campaign for the Greens,” Sebastian Striegel, co-chair of the party in Sachsen-Anhalt, told AFP.

The party has benefited from “a lot of momentum from Berlin” with the nomination of chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock, according to Striegel.

The latest survey for Der Spiegel of who Germans would like to see as their next chancellor has Baerbock in the lead on 25 percent, with Laschet lagging behind on 22 percent.

By Femke COLBORNE

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.