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Spain could receive up to 45 million tourists in 2021 if vaccine targets met, study

Despite ongoing travel restrictions, up to 45 million tourists could still visit Spain this year if the country's Covid-19 vaccine rollout isn't delayed, a new study has found.

Published: 5 March 2021 12:53 CET
Beach in Spain

If the current vaccination rate is maintained however, that number could drop to 15 million, , according to the study by consultancy group Simon-Kucher & Partners. 

The study points to a “positive, but limited” tourism recovery in 2021 and argues that delays in the vaccination plans could cause Spanish tourism to lose almost 60,000 million euros.

The report suggests that there are three key factors that will reactivate tourism in Spain this year: the speed of the vaccination drive in Spain and in its main tourism markets, the new predisposition to international travel, and the recovery of the tourism industry and what it can offer.  

However, the study also shows that around 29 percent of Europeans do not plan to travel internationally this year, even if they’ve been vaccinated. This could further dampen the hopes of those who work in the Spanish tourism industry.

“The study shows that vaccination in Spain is not everything. There are two sides to this coin, since most tourists consider vaccination more important in their own country than in the destination they plan on travelling to. This makes the development in the markets of origin equally important to the acceleration of vaccination in our country,” says Carles Munich, director of Simon-Kucher & Partners.

The study also points out that the British market depends 25 percent more than other markets on the effectiveness of the vaccines to be willing to travel internationally again, whilst also keeping in mind the new barriers caused by Brexit.

German tourists “show less willingness to travel internationally in 2021 than other markets, regardless of epidemiological pressure”, explains the consultancy.

The study also emphasizes that the tourism offer has changed because less than 40 percent of the hotels are currently open. The decrease in supply will also affect the demand for it.

“We fear that the price drops, which in January averaged 25 percent, will increase and a price war will ensue when demand returns,” explains Miguel Afàn, partner of Simon-Kucher and head of the tourism and leisure sectors. 

Spain recorded fewer than 20 million foreign visitors and recorded a 75 percent drop in revenue last year. 

READ MORE: ANALYSIS: How soon can Spain hope to welcome back tourists? 

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TRAVEL NEWS

Why are fewer British tourists visiting Spain this year?

Almost 800,000 fewer UK holidaymakers have visited Spain in 2023 when compared to 2019. What’s behind this big drop?

Published: 23 August 2023 11:36 CEST
Updated: 26 August 2023 18:32 CEST
Why are fewer British tourists visiting Spain this year?

Spain welcomed 12.2 million UK tourists between January and July 2023, 6 percent less when compared to the same period in 2019, according to data released on Monday by Spanish tourism association Turespaña.

This represents a decrease of 793,260 British holidaymakers for Spain so far this year.

Conversely, the number of Italian (+8 percent), Irish (+15.3 percent), Portuguese (+24.8 percent), Dutch (+4 percent) and French tourists (+5 percent) visiting España in 2023 are all above the rates in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. 

German holidaymakers are together with their British counterparts the two main nationalities showing less interest in coming to Spanish shores.

Britons still represent the biggest tourist group that comes to Spain, but it’s undergoing a slump, with another recent study by Caixabank Research suggesting numbers fell particularly in June 2023 (-12.5 percent of the usual rate). 

READ ALSO: Spain fully booked for summer despite most expensive holiday prices ever

So are some Britons falling out of love with Spain? Are there clear reasons why a holiday on the Spanish coast is on fewer British holiday itineraries?

According to Caixabank Research’s report, the main reasons are “the poor macroeconomic performance of the United Kingdom, the sharp rise in rates and the weakness of the pound”.

This is evidenced in the results of a survey by British market research company Savanta, which found that one in six Britons are not going on a summer holiday this year due to the UK’s cost-of-living crisis.

Practically everything, everywhere has become more expensive, and that includes holidays in Spain: hotel stays are up 44 percent, eating out is 13 percent pricier, and flights are 40 percent more on average. 

READ ALSO: How much more expensive is it to holiday in Spain this summer?

Caixabank stressed that another reason for the drop in British holidaymakers heading to Spain is that those who can afford a holiday abroad are choosing “more competitive markets” such as Turkey, Greece and Portugal. 

And there’s no doubt that the insufferably hot summer that Spain is having, with four heatwaves so far, has also dissuaded many holidaymakers from Blighty from overcooking in the Spanish sun. 

With headlines such as “This area of Spain could become too hot for tourists” or “tourists say it’s too hot to see any sights” featuring in the UK press, budding British holidaymakers are all too aware of the suffocating weather conditions Spain and other Mediterranean countries are enduring. 

Other UK outlets have urged travellers to try out the cooler Spanish north rather than the usual piping hot Costa Blanca and Costa del Sol destinations.

Another UK poll by InsureandGo found that 71 percent of the 2,000+ British respondents thought that parts of Europe such as Spain, Greece and Turkey will be too hot to visit over summer by 2027.

There’s further concern that the introduction in 2024 of the new (and delayed) ETIAS visa for non-EU visitors, which of course now also applies to UK nationals, could further compel British tourists to choose countries to holiday in rather than Spain.

READ MORE: Will British tourists need to pay for a visa waiver to enter Spain?

However, a drop in the number of British holidaymakers may not be all that bad for Spain, even though they did spend over €17 billion on their Spanish vacations in 2022. 

Towns, cities and islands across the country have been grappling with the problem of overtourism and the consequences it has on everything from quality of life for locals to rent prices. 

READ ALSO: ‘Beach closed’ – Fake signs put up in Spain’s Mallorca to dissuade tourists

The overcrowded nature of Spain’s beaches and most beautiful holiday hotspots appears to be one of the reasons why Germans are visiting Spain in far fewer numbers. A recent report in the country’s most read magazine Stern asked “if the dream is over” in their beloved Mallorca.

Spanish authorities are also seeking to overhaul the cheaper holiday package-driven model that dominates many resorts, which includes moving away from the boozy antics of young British and other European revellers.

Fewer tourists who spend more are what Spain is theoretically now looking for, and the rise in American, Japanese and European tourists other than Brits signify less of a dependence on the British market, one which tends to maintain the country’s tourism status quo for better or for worse.

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