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Why Biden could reverse US troop removal from Germany

Joe Biden could reverse course – at least partially – on the Trump administration's move to withdraw some 12,000 US troops from Germany, according to the US President-elect defense advisers.

Why Biden could reverse US troop removal from Germany
US President-elect Joe Biden. Photo: DPA

Michele Flournoy – former number three at the Pentagon and a favorite to lead the Defense Department under the new administration – nearly predicted as much during a conference in August.

“If you have a new administration, the first thing they'll do is a posture review globally,” she said at the Aspen Security Forum when asked about the withdrawals.

“My hope is that this (withdrawal plan) will not be fully executed because I don't think it's in the strategic interests of the United States and it's very damaging to our alliance relationships,” Flournoy said.

The move was announced July 29th by former defense secretary Mark Esper, who was abruptly fired by President Donald Trump Monday.

Some 34,500 troops are currently deployed in the country. Under the Trump administration's plan, about 6,400 would be sent home to the US while 5,600 others would be re-deployed to other NATO countries, especially Belgium and Italy.

READ ALSO: NATO chief defends US amid German troop withdrawal report

'Doesn't make sense'

Esper framed the re-deployment as strategically necessary, especially as part of efforts to counter Russian influence, but Trump immediately contradicted that explanation, saying the maneuver was actually in response to Germany's refusal to “pay the bills.”

“We don't want to be the suckers anymore…. We're protecting Germany, so we're reducing the force because they're not paying the bills,” Trump said at the time.

“I don't think it makes sense,” said Flournoy, who was set to be the first woman to direct the world's most powerful military if Hillary Clinton had won the presidency in 2016.

Archive photo shows US soldiers at the Storck Barracks in Illescheim, Bavaria, in March 2017. Photo: DPA

The removal “was seen as sort of punishing … and it underscores the narrative in Europe, unfortunately, that the United States cannot be relied upon, that we can't be counted on to sort of stick with them, that we don't value the NATO alliance relationships,” she lamented.

Another Biden adviser, Kathleen Hicks, also critiqued the Germany troop removal, writing in the newspaper The Hill in August that the move “benefits our adversaries.”

The move “comes at the cost of readiness” and “will be expensive,” said Hicks, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

READ ALSO: Will American troops in Germany still be relocated if Biden wins the election?

Moving is expensive

And Hicks was skeptical of the money-saving powers of Esper's assurances that the troops withdrawn from Germany would be replaced with rotations of new units.

“Relocating 11,900 forces, dependents, and equipment, and securing new capacity for living, working, and training take more money,” she pointed out.

Hicks was nominated Monday to head the Democrats' team managing the presidential transition at the Department of Defense.

Germany, which hosts more US troops than any other European country – a legacy of the Allied occupation after World War II – is ready to turn the page on the Trump years.

But during a September interview with AFP, the German head of transatlantic relations, Peter Beyer, hedged on the removal plan.

“The controversial issues won't go away overnight, but with Biden the transatlantic friendship would become more reasonable, calculable and reliable again,” he said.

Flournoy didn't say whether she would be in favor of keeping all of the troops in question in Germany, but she did explain that she foresees a re-deployment of some forces farther east.

“And maybe we need more in the Baltics or in Poland or somewhere else, Romania, but that was not what was driving this (move in Germany),” she said.

By Sylvie Lanteaume

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NATO

Erdogan links Swedish Nato approval to Turkish EU membership

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday he would back Sweden's Nato candidacy if the European Union resumes long-stalled membership talks with Ankara.

Erdogan links Swedish Nato approval to Turkish EU membership

“First, open the way to Turkey’s membership of the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland,” Erdogan told a televised media appearance, before departing for the NATO summit in Lithuania.

Erdogan said “this is what I told” US President Joe Biden when the two leaders spoke by phone on Sunday.

Turkey first applied to be a member of the European Economic Community — a predecessor to the EU — in 1987. It became an EU candidate country in 1999 and formally launched membership negotiations with the bloc in 2005.

The talks stalled in 2016 over European concerns about Turkish human rights violations.

“I would like to underline one reality. Turkey has been waiting at the EU’s front door for 50 years,” Erdogan said. “Almost all the NATO members are EU members. I now am addressing these countries, which are making Turkey wait for more than 50 years, and I will address them again in Vilnius.”

Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, is due to meet Erdogan at 5pm on Monday in a last ditch attempt to win approval for the country’s Nato bid ahead of Nato’s summit in Vilnius on July 11th and 12th. 

Turkey has previously explained its refusal to back Swedish membership as motivated by the country’s harbouring of people connected to the PKK, a Kurdish terrorist group, and the Gülen movement, who Erdogan blames for an attempted coup in 2016. 

More recently, he has criticised Sweden’s willingness to allow pro-Kurdish groups to protest in Swedish cities and allow anti-Islamic protesters to burn copies of the Quran, the holy book of Islam.

In a sign of the likely reaction of counties which are members both of Nato and the EU, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the two issues should not be connected. 

“Sweden meets all the requirements for Nato membership,” Scholz told reporters in Berlin. “The other question is one that is not connected with it and that is why I do not think it should be seen as a connected issue.”

Malena Britz, Associate Professor in Political Science at the Swedish Defence University, told public broadcaster SVT that Erdogan’s new gambit will have caught Sweden’s negotiators, the EU, and even Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg off guard. 

“I think both the member states and Stoltenberg had expected this to be about Nato and not about what the EU is getting up to,” she said. “That’s not something Nato even has any control over. If Erdogan sticks to the idea that Turkey isn’t going to let Sweden into Nato until Turkey’s EU membership talks start again, then Sweden and Nato will need to think about another solution.” 

Aras Lindh, a Turkey expert at the Swedish Institute of Foreign Affairs, agreed that the move had taken Nato by surprise. 

“This came suddenly. I find it hard to believe that anything like this will become reality, although there could possibly be some sort of joint statement from the EU countries. I don’t think that any of the EU countries which are also Nato members were prepared for this issue.”

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