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CRIME

ANALYSIS: Vienna terror attack was ‘only a matter of time’

Until the deadly shooting in the heart of the Austrian capital Vienna on Monday night, the country had in recent decades been spared the shock and mayhem wreaked by major terrorist attacks -- but experts say the horrific events shouldn't have come as a surprise.

ANALYSIS: Vienna terror attack was 'only a matter of time'
Army patrol the streets of Vienna along with the police. AFP

The country was on Tuesday mourning four civilians shot dead by a 20-year-old Islamic State sympathiser who attacked a popular nightlife area in the heart of Vienna on the last night before a second coronavirus shutdown.

Political scientist and Middle East expert Thomas Schmidinger told AFP that it had only been a matter of time before such an attack occurred in Austria.

“I am not surprised that this is happening in Vienna now. What can happen in Nice, in Berlin or Brussels can happen here as well,” Schmidinger said.

The fact that Austria prides itself on its reputation as a neutral country, not taking part in military alliances like Nato, has not saved it from being a target for extremists.

“The entire scene has been in Vienna for a while,” Schmidinger said, referring to hundreds of sympathisers he estimates the Islamic State (IS) group has in Vienna. 

READ ALSO: 'How was it possible?' Austrians left asking painful questions after Vienna shootings

The suspected killer held Austrian and Macedonian nationality and was shot dead in a firefight with police and special forces on Monday night.

On Tuesday, Austria's interior minister Karl Nehammer confirmed the arrest of 14 other suspects, but said that it was still unclear whether they had played a role in the attack.

'Homegrown terrorism'

As with other terrorists in attacks across Europe, Vienna's shooter had long lived among those he targeted when he armed himself with an automatic weapon, a handgun and a machete and strapped a fake explosives belt around his 
waist.

“What we can say for sure is that this is homegrown terrorism — terrorism by a person who grew up in Vienna and who lived in Vienna and who therefore attacked right here,” Schmidinger said.

The attacker was born in the commuter town of Moedling just to the south of Vienna.

While his exact links to terror group Isis were unclear, he was previously sentenced for attempting to travel to Syria in order to join the Islamic State extremist organisation.

Austria has seen a relatively high proportion of residents trying to make the same journey.

In 2018 the interior ministry said around 300 people had either left or been intercepted trying to leave Austria to fight in Syria or Iraq since 2011. 

Some 50 of them had died there while around 100 returned.

'Not spontaneous'

Monday's attack, according to Schmidinger, was conceived by “someone who wanted to cause as much harm as possible.”

“It was planned, it was definitely not a spontaneous rampage — even the timing on the eve of the big lockdown where many people were outside speaks to that,” Schmidinger said.

In a televised address to his compatriots on the morning after the atrocity, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said that “often we in Austria see ourselves as an island of the blessed, where we only know about violence and terror from abroad”.

But the sad truth is even if we're lucky enough to live in an essentially safe country, sadly we don't live in a safe world.”

The last time a large terrorist attack rocked the small nation of fewer than 9 million people was a racist bomb attack on the Roma minority which killed four people in the Burgenland region in 1995.

In the 1980s there was a series of deadly attacks by Palestinian militants, including a hostage-taking attempt at the counter of the Israeli airline El Al at Vienna airport and attack on a bar mitzvah at the main synagogue.

In December 1975 there was the infamous attack by a commando group led by Ilich Ramirez Sanchez, alias Carlos the Jackal, in which 70 people were taken hostage, including 11 oil ministers, at the OPEC headquarters in Vienna. Three 
people were killed.

Austria has lax gun ownership laws, largely due to a high number of people who enjoy hunting, but violent attacks or murders are extremely rare.

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TERRORISM

What is the risk of new terror attacks in Austria?

Following the March 22nd attack in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall that left over 140 dead, European governments are evaluating the threat of terror attacks. Is Austria a target for fresh terrorist attacks?

What is the risk of new terror attacks in Austria?

With responsibility for the Moscow attack being taken by the Islamist terror organisation ISIS-K, national intelligence services are reevaluating the threat posed to targets within their borders. 

‘No concrete threat’

Austrian officials have been quick to give their appraisal of the situation. 

“We currently have the Islamist scene under control,” stressed Omar Haijawi-Pirchner, head of the Directorate of State Security & Intelligence (DSN) – the governmental agency responsible for combatting internal threats – in an interview with the Ö1 Morgenjournal radio programme on Tuesday. 

He continued: “The terrorist attacks in Moscow, for example, definitely increase the risk. But at the moment, we do not see any concrete threat of an attack in Austria,”

Other experts and officials have warned that while there are no concrete threats, Austrians should not be complacent. 

‘Situation is still valid’ 

Interior Minister Gerhard Karner announced tighter security at church festivals during the Easter period, in the days after the attack, and stressed that the high terror alert level introduced after the October 7 Hamas attacks was still in place. 

“This increased risk situation is still valid,” noted Karner.

READ MORE: What does Austria’s raised terror alert mean for the public?

Meanwhile, terror researcher Peter Neumann of King’s College London told ORF’s ‘ZiB 2’ news broadcast on Monday that Austria remains a potential target due to its Central Asian migrant population. 

Neumann noted that countries at most risk are those “in which Tajik and Central Asian diasporas exist and where ISIS-K finds it relatively easy to identify and recruit people”. 

He continued, identifying both Austria and Germany as “countries in which the ISPK is particularly active and which are particularly at risk from terrorist attacks”.

New threats

Austria has not been spared from attacks from homegrown terrorists.

On November 2nd 2020, amid Coronavirus lockdowns, Austrian-born Kujtim Fejzulai shot and killed four, injuring twenty-three others during a shooting spree across Vienna. He was ultimately shot dead by police. 

Fejzulai was already under surveillance by federal authorities for his beliefs and had been released from prison on parole less than a year before. 

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