SHARE
COPY LINK

JOBS

France prepares €100 billion rescue package to save coronavirus-hit economy

France is due to present a mammoth spending plan for its virus-hit economy Thursday, hoping to reverse a dramatic downturn in growth and ward off the threat of mass layoffs at struggling companies.

France prepares €100 billion rescue package to save coronavirus-hit economy
Can Emmanuel Macron's government kickstart the economy and save French jobs? Photo: AFP

President Emmanuel Macron's government has earmarked €100 billion to counter the devastating impact of the coronavirus at a time when daily virus numbers in France are on the rise again.

The sum, a combination of new spending and tax breaks, is four times the amount France spent over a decade ago to deal with the global financial crisis, and represents a third of its typical annual budget, Prime Minister Jean Castex said ahead of the plan's launch.

The French budget boost is separate from a €750 billion European Union plan agreed after acrimonious haggling in July.

Some critics say the money may come too late to save many companies, while others say high hopes for Macron's green revolution in the French economy are likely to be dashed.

The virus impact has plunged the French economy into its worst downward spiral since 1945, with gross domestic product plunging 13.8 percent in the second quarter, after a drop of more than five percent in the first.

The government expects GDP for the whole year to contract by 11 percent.

Economists have welcomed the departure from the kind of austerity measures seen after the 2008 crisis which were “a huge error,” said Philippe Martin, who heads up the CAE think tank which advises the government.

This time, “the focus is not on public debt,” agreed Xavier Ragot, president of the OFCE economics institute.

The economy saw a lively but brief rebound just after the end of lockdown measures in mid-May, but has since shown worrying signs of sliding back again, while French virus infection rates are back on the rise.

'The France of 2030'

Measures to prevent a feared second virus wave, such as mandatory mask-wearing at the workplace, are seen undermining the very confidence among economic actors that the government is desperately trying to restore.

Unlike the post-2008 crisis response, much of the new plan targets the supply and investment side of the economy, namely businesses.

The measures over the next two years include €10 billion's worth of corporate tax cuts.

Youth employment is also a major target of the spending, with €6.5 billion aimed at encouraging hiring for millions of new entrants on a depressed job market.

Beyond emergency measures, the government also hopes to stimulate investment in green technologies, and help some economic sectors such as health care become more competitive.

“This is not a strategy to deal with the current difficulties, because that's already done,” Macron said last week. “It's to pave the way for the France of 2030.”

Some €30 billion are earmarked for greener policies, some of which will overlap with the €40 billion planned for the country's re-industrialisation.

“How much is 30 billion when you also spend 17.7 billion every year on fossil fuel, and when you cut corporate tax by 20 billion without asking for anything in return?” said Arnaud Schwartz, head of France Nature Environnement, an NGO.

 

Businesses or consumers?

Others say the government, while keen to help businesses, should not neglect consumer spending that stagnated in July, after a brief spike in the early summer.

French households have accumulated €80 billion in savings since March, significant firepower if people could be induced to spend, analysts say.

But the government has rejected calls for a huge VAT cut like the one seen in Germany, saying its heavy financing of partial unemployment measures had already done much to keep households' purchasing power intact.

“The best way to support demand is to create jobs,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said.

Denis Ferrand, director of economics research institute Rexecode, said the strategy of favouring corporate investment over consumer spending made sense “because household revenues have remained relatively intact.”

Opposition politicians meanwhile have said Macron's plan, which is part of France's 2021 budget to be voted on in parliament only at the end of the year, may be coming too late for many companies.

“Every day lost widens the social divide”, said Socialist party spokesman Boris Vallaud.

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

JOHN LICHFIELD

OPINION: France’s economy is far from doomed, but not quite booming either

Depending on who you ask, France's economy is either booming or doomed - John Lichfield takes a look at who is right and where French finances are heading.

OPINION: France's economy is far from doomed, but not quite booming either

France is booming. France is also doomed. Take your pick.

On a much-visited French news site Le Figaro this week, consecutive stories collided head on.

The first story reported that the annual ‘Choose France’ conference will bring a record number of foreign investments to French soil in 2024 (56 projects worth €15 billion). France is the most attractive country in Europe for foreign investment for the fifth year in succession.

The second story – an essay by the political commentator and pollster Jérôme Fourquet – said that the French economic model of the last 40 years, had “reached the end of the road and left the country in a cul-de-sac”.

France no longer “made anything”, the essay said. The economy was being kept alive by state and consumer spending, funded unsustainably by twin deficits of trade and public finance.

Which is true? Both, up to a point.

The Choose France foreign investment conference in Versailles this week will be the most successful since President Emmanuel Macron launched the project six years ago. France opened 200 more factories than it closed last year, returning to a modest trend of “re-industrialisation” interrupted by the Covid and Ukraine crises.

Jérôme Fourquet’s essay was brilliant but also over the top. It ignored some of the positive developments in France of recent years.

It suggested that France “made nothing” but also admitted that the country was a world leader in arms, cosmetics, perfume, luxury goods and wine.

France, Fourquet might have added, is also one of the world’s largest exporters of cereals. It holds a major part of Airbus, the world’s most successful plane-maker. Unlike the UK, it is still a train-maker and a car-maker, although both industries have declined.

All the same, the essay made good points about the “French model” created unconsciously over four decades by governments of Right and Left and only timidly changed by Emmanuel Macron’s Centre in the last seven years.

Fourquet defines the French model as “state-consumerist”, a mixture of excessive public spending and taxation and generous pensions and welfare payments which allow most French people to live reasonably well. Unfortunately, the high taxation is never enough to cover the public spending and the consumers consume more from abroad than the country exports.

The result is twin, expanding deficits in public spending and the balance of payments which cannot be sustained indefinitely.

In 2003, France’s accumulated state debt was the equivalent of 63 percent of annual GDP. It is now 110 percent of GDP. The annual service charge is about to overtake education as the single biggest item in the state budget.

In 2006, France’s trade deficit was €4.3 billion. In 2023, it was €99.6 billion (admittedly inflated by the high cost of oil and gas).

Fourquet says the cost and bureaucratic weight of the French state make creating businesses – and wealth and jobs – more difficult than in other EU countries. This is covered up by more state spending which, in turn, sustains consumer spending which, in turn, boosts the twin deficits. A vicious spiral.

He concedes that Macron has tried to chip away at the state in the last seven years. The President has also splashed the cash on pet projects and has done little to reduce the regulatory burden.

Rather than lighten the entire system, Macron suspends rules and norms when he wants to get stuff done (such as the rebuilding of Notre Dame cathedral). The success of his foreign investment drive is also partly based on “keys in hand” offers of low or no-regulation factory sites which are not always easily accessible to domestic investors.

Some of those criticisms are justified. Macron has not been the revolutionary that he promised to be in 2017. He has been a plodding state reformer, extending with some success the job-friendly policies introduced by President François Hollande. France being France, neither man gets any credit.

There are signs that the economic downturn late last year (and the explosion in the budget deficit) may have been a temporary set-back as Macron insisted. Growth in the first three months of this year exceeded expectations at 0.2 percent of GDP. Jobs are being created again. (More than 1 million extra jobs since pre-Covid days).

High energy costs are crippling business across Europe but they are lower in France than elsewhere. The boom in foreign investment in France has tended to be high in value but low in jobs. The industrious and energetic minister for industry and energy, Roland Lescure, says that is now changing.

One of the projects under discussion at Choose France is a home-grown plan for a €1.6 billion solar panel factory in the Rhône delta which would create 12,000 jobs.

So is it boom or is it doom?

Neither. There has been a gradual, positive shift in the French social-economic model in the last seven to ten years which Jérôme Fourquet plays down or ignores.

Macron promised to do far more but he has had to surmount to two international crises (Covid and Ukraine) and to adjust to two domestic revolts (Yellow Vests and pensions reform). His unpopularity is partly explained by his failure to sell a convincing narrative of reform; it is also explained by France’s obsession with “reform” (in the abstract) but hatred of all “reforms” (in detail).

But what are the alternatives? All the opposition forces, from far-left to far-right, offer policies which would preserve or worsen an unsustainable status quo.

Macron’s final three years are unlikely to achieve much in the way of new reforms. A recovery of the economy might warm attitudes to Macronism (a big ask) and allow his would-be successors in the Centre to block Marine Le Pen in 2027.

Otherwise, Le Pen’s zombie economics – extra spending, no new taxes, breaking the European single market – could tip a heavily indebted France into the abyss.

SHOW COMMENTS