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COVID-19

ANALYSIS: Can Spain’s official coronavirus death toll be trusted?

This week we reported the positive news that Spain’s health ministry had recorded zero coronavirus deaths in a 24 hour period for the first time since early March. Then the same news again the next day.

ANALYSIS: Can Spain’s official coronavirus death toll be trusted?
Photo: AFP

But even as he announced the good news, Fernando Simon, who is the head of the Coordination Centre for Health Alerts and Emergencies and the spokesman who gives the daily press conference, warned that there might be “discrepancies” in the figures.

For the Health Ministry which collects the data on deaths from regional health authorities had once again changed the criteria and method of registering those who had officially died of covid-19.

Just over a week earlier,  Spain's government had revised downward the country's death toll from the coronavirus by nearly 2,000, insisting that the new system of gathering data had allowed them to identify cases that were counted twice and exclude deaths wrongly attributed to the virus.

Officially Spain has recorded a total of 27,127 deaths from the virus, a figure that still makes it one of the worst-hit countries in the world, but shows fewer deaths than Italy and the UK.

However, new data released on Wednesday by Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) tells a different story.

That data reveals that the number of deaths in Spain was in fact 24 percent higher between January and the end of May than the same period last year.

And if you narrow it down to the week around the date Spain’s reached its peak on April 2nd when 950 daily coronavirus deaths were recorded, it shows an increase of around 154 percent on the same week in 2019..

Totting up the deaths recorded at civil registries across Spain shows that in fact 43,945 more deaths occurred between January 1 and May 24 than in 2019; a discrepancy of 17,000 when compared to the official coronavirus death toll.

The problem lies in the fact that Spain’s official death toll only includes those who died after testing positive for covid-19 and disregards all the people who may have perished from the virus without being tested.

A huge number of deaths occurred in elderly residential centres where testing was not widespread even in those who showed symptoms of covid-19.

The INE figures showed that the biggest leap in deaths came in the over 90 age group with 27.3 percent more recorded (12,824 deaths) than in the same period in 2019, while there was a 25 percent increase (10,006 more deaths) of those aged between 85 and 89.

 

But the discrepancy caused by the method of recording virus victims is unlikely to be isolated to Spain. 

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez explained in parliament on Wednesday that Spain was just following official WHO guidelines when it came to recording its coronavirus dead. 

“This figure counts the deceased who were tested and whose tests came back positive,” he insisted.

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COVID-19

Public Health Agency recommends two Covid doses next year for elderly

Sweden's Public Health Agency is recommending that those above the age of 80 should receive two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine a year, once in the spring and once in the autumn, as it shifts towards a longer-term strategy for the virus.

Public Health Agency recommends two Covid doses next year for elderly

In a new recommendation, the agency said that those living in elderly care centres, and those above the age of 80 should from March 1st receive two vaccinations a year, with a six month gap between doses. 

“Elderly people develop a somewhat worse immune defence after vaccination and immunity wanes faster than among young and healthy people,” the agency said. “That means that elderly people have a greater need of booster doses than younger ones. The Swedish Public Health Agency considers, based on the current knowledge, that it will be important even going into the future to have booster doses for the elderly and people in risk groups.” 

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People between the ages of 65 and 79 years old and young people with risk factors, such as obesity, diabetes, poor kidney function or high blood pressure, are recommended to take one additional dose per year.

The new vaccination recommendation, which will start to apply from March 1st next year, is only for 2023, Johanna Rubin, the investigator in the agency’s vaccination programme unit, explained. 

She said too much was still unclear about how long protection from vaccination lasted to institute a permanent programme.

“This recommendation applies to 2023. There is not really an abundance of data on how long protection lasts after a booster dose, of course, but this is what we can say for now,” she told the TT newswire. 

It was likely, however, that elderly people would end up being given an annual dose to protect them from any new variants, as has long been the case with influenza.

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