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Norway acts to protect economy from coronavirus impact

Norway's government on Friday unveiled a 6.5bn Norwegian kroner financial package to help keep businesses afloat through the coronavirus pandemic.

Norway acts to protect economy from coronavirus impact
Prime Minister Erna Solberg and Finance Minister John Tore Sanner (centre right, far right) making the announcement on Thursday. Photo: Norwegian Government
The government announced it was suspending fees and taxes for the airline industry, and would pay all but the two first days of the salaries of employees temporarily laid off in a bid to improve companies' liquidity.  
 
Prime Minister Erna Solberg said at a press conference that it was “absolutely impossible to make an estimate” of how much the measures would cost the government. 
 
“It all depends on how long this lasts, and how strong the measures we need to have,” she said.  “We are put to a major test. The number of people infected is increasing rapidly, and it is affecting our everyday lives, our health care system and our economy.” 
 
The package followed a surprise rate cut on Thursday from Norges Bank, the country's central bank, which reduced its key interest rate to 1 percent from 1.5 percent. 
 
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health on Friday reported that there had been 131 new cases of infection int he 24 hours up to midnight on Thursday, bringing the national total to 750. 
 
The country is now ranked second in the world after South Korea in the number of infections per capita according to the Worldometers website, with 165 confirmed infections per million inhabitants. 
 
On Thursday Norway saw its first death from the virus, with an elderly patient dying at a hospital in Oslo. 
 
Finance Minister Jan Tore Sanner said it was fortunate the the Norwegian economy had been in such a good state at the time the virus hit. 
 
“The situation is now affecting many parts of the economy and many industries and companies. Fortunately, the Norwegian economy is fundamentally solid,” he told state broadcaster NRK. “We have a good starting point.”
 
In a press release accompanying the announcement, the government said it would also remove the three-day waiting period between the point at which companies stop paying employees' salaries and the time unemployment benefits begin, to help keep the income of those laid off stable. 
 
It said it would also change corporate tax regulations so that companies that are loss-making can re-allocate their losses towards the previous years’ taxed surplus. It will also change the tax regulations so that owners of loss-making companies can postpone payments of wealth tax. 
 
Sanner told NRK that the government was considering other changes to employment taxes to make it easier for companies.  
 
“Should the economic situation worsen, we will also consider measures to stimulate the economy more generally,” he said. 
 
Sanner would give few concrete details of the other exact measures the government would propose, but he said they would all fall into three categories. 
 
  • Immediate measures to avoid bankruptcies and dismissals.
  • Further concrete measures for industries and companies that are particularly hard hit and for the business community as a whole.
  • Broad measures to maintain activity in the economy if necessary.
 
The measures announced received a relatively lukewarm reception from the crisis-hit aviation and travel industries. 
 
“The measures presented today are still not sufficient given the very special emergency situation in the airline industry,” John Echoff, press officer for the airline SAS, wrote to NRK.
 
“Taken as a whole, this will turn out to be too little as this crisis continues developing,” said Kristin Krohn Devold, chief executive of the Norwegian Hospitality Association. “More needs to come in the days ahead.”
 
“We are very clear that this is not enough to avoid a bankruptcy wave across the entire travel and airline industries. But it is a signal that they are willing to listen.” 

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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