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‘Trouble and turmoil’: What the CDU crisis means for the future of Merkel and Germany

After the CDU leader's shocking announced departure following the Thuringia vote debacle, we look at where the party goes from here, what it means for Merkel and if it will ever team up with the far-right.

Published: 11 February 2020 10:43 CET
'Trouble and turmoil': What the CDU crisis means for the future of Merkel and Germany
Angela Merkel receives Valentine's Day flowers from the German Horticultural Association (ZVG) on Tuesday. Photo: DPA

German politics is anything but dull at the moment, and the latest chapter adds to the uncertainty of what happens next. Here's a breakdown. 

What’s happened?

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who took over as leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) from German Chancellor Angela Merkel in December 2018, announced on Monday she would quit later this year after a vote debacle involving her party and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the central-eastern state of Thuringia. 

READ ALSO:

What does it mean?

Kramp-Karrenbauer’s decision not to stand for chancellor in the race to succeed veteran Merkel – or continue as leader of the CDU – plunges the party into disarray over where it stands politically and its game plan for the future.

AKK and Merkel at a CDU meeting in 2018. Photo: DPA

This in turn has a major impact on the German political landscape.

But does the party recognize this fully?

Dresden-based political scientist Werner Patzelt believes the CDU – once one of Germany's thriving 'Volkspartei' (people's party) but haemorrhaging support in recent years – is still in denial about how bad things are.

“The CDU as far as I can see has not yet accepted that it is in a deep crisis,” Patzelt told The Local. 

Under Merkel, the party has undoubtedly moved to the centre. Many argue that Merkel’s open-door immigration policy created a vortex that resulted in support for the far-right anti-immigration AfD growing exponentially. 

READ ALSO: 'Germany's future depends on immigration and integration': Merkel

Now the party is split, and Kramp-Karrenbauer's leadership has failed to bring it onto the same page.

“There’s a significant number in the CDU who believe the policies by Angela Merkel have been just great for the CDU,” said Patzelt. 

“There is another group that says the CDU has suffered from severe losses during elections, and that the CDU has allowed the AfD to conquer political territory occupied by the CDU by turning away right-wing orientated people and allowing the AfD to take political positions that have been held by the CDU, not even 10 years ago.

“So there are these two wings in the CDU, and the CDU must take a decision as to which direction it takes. But it can only take a decision as soon as the party accepts that a decision needs to be taken.”

So what happens next?

The CDU will need to find a new leader and a candidate for the German chancellorship. 

There are four possible names so far for chancellor – Friedrich Merz, an old rival of Merkel's, Jens Spahn, the young and ambitious current Health Minister, Armin Laschet, centrist ally of Merkel and state premier of Germany's most populous region North Rhine-Westphaia.

A recent poll found Merz would was the most popular choice.

Graph created for the The Local by Statista. Photo: DPA

Lastly there's Markus Söder, head of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU),  who is seen as having a more distant shot at the chancellery – and may not even want to throw his hat in the ring.

In the coming days and weeks other possible candidates could surface.

“The direction the Christian Democratic Union takes is absolutely open,” Patzelt said.

READ MORE: From 'avenger' to 'anti-Merkel': Who could be Germany's next chancellor?

What will happen to Merkel?

Commentators in Germany never pass up the chance to mull over when Merkel's time is coming to an end. And it's no different this time.

But now that her party's leadership is up in the air, there really could be massive implications on her plans to stay in the chancellor's seat until her fourth term ends next year.

“It's very possible that the chancellor's exit is coming closer,” Süddeutsche Zeitung said on Monday.

Kramp-Karrenbauer said Monday that “separating the office of chancellor and the party chairmanship is weakening the CDU,” – an implicit rebuke to Merkel's 2018 decision to split the two.

Merkel gave up on the party leadership then as a string of regional defeats and the growth of the far right undermined her popularity within her own ranks.

Merkel, who has been in power since 2005, announced at that time that she would not run again for the highest office.

“This is the next crisis within the CDU,” said Patzelt. “Kramp-Karrenbauer says it makes no sense to distinguish between the candidate for the chancellorship and the party chairman.”

Patzelt said Merkel could have to “retreat from office” earlier than she planned “making place for her successor as chancellor or at least as chancellor candidate”.

“And whether Angela Merkel will do so for the likes of Merz is an open question,” he added.

Germany's next national elections must take place by autumn next year, although the fragile coalition between the CDU, its Bavarian CSU allies and the SPD may not hold until then.

What is this to do with Thuringia?

The CDU has a policy of no cooperation with either far-left or far-right at a national level, but regional CDU politicians went rogue during a vote to elect the new state premier in Thuringia last week – and voted with MPs from the AfD to oust far-left state premier Bodo Ramelow.

The breach in the political dam towards the AfD in Thuringia prompted Merkel's junior partners in the national government, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), to call urgent talks at the weekend about the partnership's future.

READ ALSO:

The fiasco also highlighted AKK's lack of authority over her party, resulting in political turmoil and coming to a head with her announcement she would step down.

The effects of Thuringia have created fear that the far-right could have a greater foothold in mainstream German politics.

The CDU must clarify its relationship to far-right extremists,” SPD co-leader Norbert Walter-Borjans told a press conference on Monday.

Centre-left SPD ministers will not work with a party “that leaves room for far-right forces,” he added.

SPD leaders Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Eskens made a statement on Monday about the CDU. They spoke in front of a sign, “Distribute fairly”. Photo: DPA

Patzelt said the drama in Thuringia reflects the CDU's difficulties because the party hasn't come to grips with the fact it is a “minor party” .

“The CDU has lost its power, has lost its votes, it's not accepting that it is a minor party, not accepting the leadership of the Left government. The CDU doesn’t accept this role of being a second or third rate party in some of the German states,” he said.

“It's not surprising that the party chairman has to step down.”

Aside from the Thuringia episode, Kramp-Karrenbauer, 57, who's also Defence Minister, hasn't fared that well as leader, although she sought to stand apart from Merkel's centrist stance, by championing a tougher stance on asylum seekers and floated the idea of reintroducing compulsory military service.

READ ALSO: Merkel's crown princess seeks to chart own path

Ultimately she was weakened by election results, particularly in eastern Germany's former communist states, where the support fell to the AfD.

AKK also walked into a few blunders, such as a transgender bathroom joke that backfired and a response to a YouTube star's video. 

READ ALSO: Merkel successor slammed over intersex toilet joke

Will the CDU ever work with the AfD?

It’s not impossible but it’s not likely in the near future, said Patzelt. 

“Everyone who gets close to the AfD is committing political suicide,” he added, pointing to the Thuringia debacle. 

But in five or 10 years, if the AfD decides to become a “normal party in the framework of the German political party system”, then it has more of a chance of being accepted by mainstream parties.

“The only thing we know for sure is that the CDU is going into a time of trouble and turmoil,” said Patzelt.

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POLITICS

Scandals rock German far right but party faithfuls unmoved

When carpenter Tim Lochner decided to run for mayor in the German city of Pirna, he knew standing for the far-right AfD would give him the best chance of winning.

Published: 20 April 2024 09:08 CEST
Scandals rock German far right but party faithfuls unmoved

“My success proves me right,” Lochner told AFP at the town hall in Pirna, a picturesque mountain town with a population of around 40,000 in the former East German state of Saxony.

Surfing on a surge of support for the AfD across Germany, Lochner scored 38.5 percent of the vote against two other candidates in December, making him the AfD’s first city mayor.

Four months later, support for the anti-euro, anti-immigration party has been slipping as it battles multiple controversies.

But Lochner remains convinced the AfD is on a winning streak ahead of June’s European elections and three key regional polls in Germany in September.

People in Pirna are concerned about “petrol prices, energy prices, food prices”, Lochner said.

“People’s wallets are just as empty as they were the day before yesterday,” he said, arguing that voters will therefore continue to turn to the AfD.

Slipping support

The AfD was polling on around 22 percent at the end of last year, seizing on concerns over rising migration, high inflation and a stumbling economy.

READ ALSO: Germany’s far-right AfD denies plan to expel ‘non-assimilated foreigners’

But a recent opinion poll by the Bild daily had the party on just 18 percent as it contends with several scandals involving its members.

In January, an investigation by media group Correctiv indicated members of the AfD had discussed the idea of mass deportations at a meeting with extremists, leading to a huge wave of protests across the country.

More recently, the AfD has been fighting allegations that senior party members were paid to spread pro-Russian positions on a Moscow-financed news website.

And Bjoern Hoecke, one of the party’s most controversial politicians, went on trial this week for publicly using a banned Nazi slogan.

But in spite of everything, the AfD is still polling in second place after the conservatives and ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party.

It also remains in first place in three former East German states where elections are set to be held in September, including Saxony.

Ruediger Schmitt-Beck, a professor of politics at the University of Mannheim, said the scandals may have swayed some Germans who had seen the party mainly as a protest vote.

“However, the AfD also has a lot of support from people with xenophobic tendencies, right-wing ideological positions and authoritarian attitudes — and they are unlikely to have been affected” by the controversies, he told AFP.

Schmitt-Beck rates the AfD’s chances in the upcoming regional and EU elections as “very good in both cases”.

‘Dissatisfied’

Residents of Pirna are more divided than ever about the party.

READ ALSO: A fight for the youth vote: Are German politicians social media savvy enough?

In the city’s cobbled pedestrian zone, a pensioner who did not want to give her name said she was “glad” to have an AfD mayor “because they address our problems (and) address them honestly”.

Fellow pensioner Brigitte Muenster, 75, said she had not voted for the AfD but she could understand why others had.

Anti AfD activists Fritz Enge (L) and Madeleine Groebe pose for a picture in Pirna

Anti AfD activists Fritz Enge (L) and Madeleine Groebe pose for a picture in Pirna, eastern Germany, on April 8, 2024. (Photo by Femke COLBORNE / AFP)

“People are dissatisfied. More is being done for others than for the people who live here themselves,” she said.

“I’m not a fan, but let’s wait and see,” added Sven Jacobi, a 49-year-old taxi driver. “Just because he’s from the AfD doesn’t mean it has to go badly.”

But not everyone is so accepting of the new mayor.

On the day Lochner was sworn in, around 800 people joined a protest outside the town hall coordinated by SOE Gegen Rechts, an association of young people against the far right.

“I think that when you look at Germany’s history, it should be clear that you should stand up against that and not let it happen again,” said group member Madeleine Groebe, 17.

Fellow activist Fritz Enge, 15, said that with so many scandals coming to light, the AfD was “making its own enemies”.

“The AfD is inhumane. It agitates against homosexuals and migrants, especially on social media, and I totally disagree with that,” he said.

 
 

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