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POPULATION

‘Scary’ depopulation of northern region of Norway hits record high

Northern Norwegian county Nordland lost inhabitants at the rate of eight people every day over a three-month period.

'Scary' depopulation of northern region of Norway hits record high
Elvfjorden in Nordland. Photo: MelanieLemahieu/Depositphotos

Nordland’s population decline is the highest seen by national statistics bureau Statistics Norway (SSB) for 20 years, NRK reports.

The county, Norway’s largest by area, lost 702 inhabitants in the third quarter of this year, according to SSB data.

During July, August and September, the population of Nordland fell by 702 persons, while Norway’s overall population increased by 11,200 inhabitants. 36 of Nordland county's 44 municipalities lost residents.

The Statistics Norway figures are uncomfortable reading, according to Tomas Norvoll, head of the Nordland county government.

“The declining population means that many of the challenges we already have will become even greater,” Norvoll told NRK.

Statistics Norway confirmed that the decline in Nordland is severe, with no county in the last 20 years recording a larger negative population change during a quarter.

“I can confirm that this is a heavy blow. In this time interval, for which records go back to the last quarter of 1997, no county has had a larger negative population change during a quarter,” Magnus Haug of SSB’s Population Statistics Section told NRK.

On only once occasion since 1998 has Statistics Norway recorded a larger negative population growth per 1000 inhabitants meanwhile. That occurred in Finnmark in the third quarter of 1998.

“Population growth in Nordland in the third quarter is strongly negative compared to quarterly county figures from the last 20 years. But there are many factors that can contribute to quarterly fluctuations at a local level, where numbers are small,” Haug said.

Several municipalities in Nordland have struggled with population decline in recent years, NRK writes.

Although a new population record was set in Northern Norway in 2012, that growth dwindled, and NRK reported declines in the region in 2016 due to centralization: people moving from smaller municipalities to larger ones.

But figures previously typical of population decline in smaller municipalities are now also common in larger municipalities.

“The most scary thing is that places you think are driving growth in their regions are also not growing. Not only that, they are going down (in population) too in some cases,” Norvoll said.

Population growth has slowed in Nordland’s largest city, Bodø.

Although Bodø grew by 123 inhabitants in the third quarter of 2019, that is not considered significant growth in a city with over 50,000 inhabitants.

The total number of emigrants from Nordland in the quarter was 2822, with 2110 persons migrating into the county.

In terms of population change for 2019, both Troms and Finnmark have so far experienced larger declines Per 1000 inhabitants than Nordland, however.

Norvoll said that the figures may be related to current low refugee immigration to Norway, since immigration may have previously obscured the underlying population change.

Whilst population is decreasing in northern Norway, the average age is increasing.

“This can affect the sustainability of individual societies. It can also mean losing some of the incentive to create new things. If you are going to start a new business, you need people of working age who can create and be in those jobs,” Norvoll said.

The county council leader said he wants to look at underlying factors behind the figures in order to work with municipalities on measures to combat demographic change.

READ ALSO: Norway registers lowest quarterly birth rate since 1985

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POPULATION

Denmark expects twice as many people over 80 years old in 2050

More than twice as many people in Denmark will be over 80 years old in 2050 compared to the number of senior citizens in the country today.

Denmark expects twice as many people over 80 years old in 2050
By 2050, a much larger proportion of Denmark's population will be over 80 years old. File photo: Henning Bagger/Ritzau Scanpix

A new population projection from national agency Statistics Denmark predicts 431,000 people of the age of 80 in Denmark in 2030.

That will increase to 617,000 by 2050, around 10 percent of the population.

Today, Denmark has around 282,000 over-80s in its population, which is around 5 percent of the population.

A large increase in the number of elderly persons is expected to present Denmark’s social welfare system with economic challenges, with larger numbers likely to need care and practical help.

In its report, Statistics Denmark writes that the “greatest (population) growth going forward is expected to take place amongst the oldest age groups”.

Other age groups are not expected to greatly change their proportion of the population during the period covered by the projection, the agency writes.

The overall population is expected to grow by 0.4 percent by 2028. After that, growth will plateau, giving a growth of 0.12 percent in 2050. It is then forecast to increase again, reaching 0.2 percent in 2060.

Major factors affecting the population size – birth rates, death rates and immigration – are all predicted to vary at different times throughout the period.

But Statistics Denmark writes that it expects a deficit in the number of births between 2044 and 2053.

The 2021 projection does not take into account the potential long-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the population. That is because “no sufficient basis of knowledge and experience is yet available,” the statistics bureau writes.

However, the agency noted that the biggest impact of the pandemic on population size in 2020 was its restrictive effect on immigration and emigration.

READ ALSO: Denmark’s immigration and emigration is mostly to and from Western countries

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