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Far-right AfD second strongest force in Brandenburg and Saxony

Germany's far-right AfD party surged to new strengths in elections for two eastern states on Sunday, exit polls said, reflecting anger over Chancellor Angela Merkel's migrant policy and a wealth gap 30 years after the Berlin Wall fell.

Published: 1 September 2019 18:07 CEST
Updated: 2 September 2019 10:22 CEST

Far-right AfD second strongest force in Brandenburg and Saxony

Björn Höcke, chairman of the AfD in Thuringia, celebrating the result in Werder, Brandenburg. Photo: DPA

The Alternative for Germany became the second-strongest party in regional parliaments in both Saxony and Brandenburg, the state which surrounds the capital Berlin, according to final results..

In Saxony, where the radical anti-Islam Pegida street movement was born, the AfD scored 27.5 percent, up sharply from 9.7 percent five years ago, broadcasters ARD and ZDF forecast.

And it won between 23.5 percent in Brandenburg state, compared to 12.2 percent in 2014, said the initial projections.

The outright winners in Saxony were Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), who scored 32 to 33 percent. In 2014 the party won about 40 percent of the vote.

Michael Kretschmer, state premier of Saxony, and his partner Annett Hofmann at the CDU election party in Dresden. Photo: DPA

18-Uhr-Prognose zur #Sachsenwahl und #Brandenburgwahl pic.twitter.com/slqcbK8J5E

— tagesschau (@tagesschau) September 1, 2019

Brandenburg was held by the Social Democrats (SPD), who came first with just over 27 percent, down from 31.9 percent in the previous election in 2014.

AfD co-leader Alexander Gauland said “we are satisfied in Brandenburg as well as in Saxony” where his party had “punished” Merkel's conservatives.

He conceded that “yes, we are not yet the strongest force… We are working on it.”

Though broadly anticipated in pre-election surveys, the outcome delivered another slap to the fragile coalition government of Merkel's CDU and their junior partners the SPD.

'We are the people'

Aside from railing against asylum-seekers and Islam, the AfD has protested against plans to shutter coal mines to protect the climate and capitalized on resentment about perceived injustices since the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

“Let's complete the change”, it had vowed in the campaign, referring to the peaceful revolution that ended the one-party state and in 1990 brought national reunification.

Voter turnout was high as the tense political atmosphere mobilised both AfD supporters and their opponents.

All other parties had declared before the vote that they would not cooperate with the AfD, forcing the mainstream groups into new coalitions to achieve governing majorities.

The SPD celebrates in Potsdam, Brandenburg. Photo: DPA

The AfD has long co-opted the former pro-democracy chant “We are the people” and turned it against what it labels the “Merkel regime”.

Eastern Germany is home to several of the AfD's most extremist leaders, among them Björn Höcke, who has labelled Berlin's Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame”.

His close ally, former paratrooper Andreas Kalbitz, 46, who has had deep ties to right-wing extremist groups, was the top candidate in Brandenburg.

Der Spiegel weekly has reported that in 2007 Kalbitz joined known German neo-Nazis on a visit to Athens that came to police attention when a swastika flag was flown from a hotel balcony.

Kalbitz confirmed to the magazine that he joined the trip but insisted that the event “was not conducive to arousing my further interest or approval”.

Fragile coalition

The AfD, formed initially as a eurosceptic group, now focuses mainly on fear and anger over Germany's mass migrant influx since 2015.

Merkel, who also grew up in the east, had avoided campaigning on the ground ahead of Sunday's polls in the region, where she has in the past faced harsh abuse.

The veteran leader has already pledged to step down when her current term ends in 2021, but regional election upsets could speed up her government's demise.

A third election will be held on October 27 in the eastern state of Thuringia.

Poor results for the SPD, already demoralized by a string of election defeats, were expected to again boost internal critics who want the party to leave Merkel's government quickly.

Meanwhile, the Green party, which has never been strong in the east of Germany, made gains, reaching about 9 percent in Saxony – plus 3.3 points – and around 10 percent in Brandenburg (a gain of 3.8 points).

All parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.