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Race heats up in eastern German states as parties bid for votes in final election rallies

Two days before locals go to the polls in Saxony and Brandenburg, a new survey shows it's a very close race at the top.

Published: 30 August 2019 10:54 CEST

Race heats up in eastern German states as parties bid for votes in final election rallies

A campaign poster for the CDU in Saxony featuring state premier Michael Kretschmer. Photo: DPA

As parties brought their big names out for the final rallies to end heated election campaigns, a survey shows support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in Saxony has increased slightly. Support for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) in Brandenburg has also gone up.

The CDU in Saxony, led by state premier Michael Kretschmer, reached 32 percent in the ZDF Politbarometer (plus 1 point compared to the previous week) – increasing its lead over the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The anti-immigration party dropped by 0.5 to 24.5 percent in the latest poll.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats in Brandenburg, led by state premier Dietmar Woidke, also gained one percentage point to reach 22 percent.

But the SPD continues to compete closely with the AfD, which gained one point to reach 21 percent in the latest poll. As The Local has reported, if the AfD does win, it would be the first outright election victory for the party which rallies against Germany's recent mass migrant influx.

It does not mean that the AfD would come into power, however, as all parties have said they would not work with the party in government, and instead form their own coalitions.

Dietmar Woidke, state premier of Brandenburg, campaigning in Panketal in July. Photo: DPA

What about the other parties?

In Saxony, according to the poll, The Left (die Linke) gained 14 percent, the Greens scooped 11 percent (plus two points), and the SPD reached 8.5 percent. The pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) will be hoping they can reach the five percent needed to get into the state government.

In Brandenburg, according to the ZDF political barometer, the CDU ranked behind the SPD and AfD with 16.5 percent (minus 1.5), the Greens had 14.5 percent (plus 0.5), The Left had 14 percent, the FDP reached 5 percent and the Free Voters (Freie Wähler) managed 4 percent.

At events on Friday, the parties are bringing out high-profile names to get residents on their side. In Brandenburg, the Greens will be enlisting the help of party co-leader Annalena Baerbock at a rally in Potsdam, while the SPD is pulling in Finance Minister Olaf Scholz in Oranienburg.

The AfD’s controversial Thuringia regional boss Björn Höcke will be on hand to help pull in voters in Königs Wusterhausen.

The Greens co-leaders Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock campaigning in Dresden, Saxony, this week. Photo: DPA

In Saxony, CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was due to campaign in Leipzig, while the Greens will draft in co-chairman Robert Habeck in a bid to convince voters.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.