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What next for Italy? These are the five likeliest scenarios

Following Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's resignation, Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday began talks aimed at resolving the political crisis. But what happens now?

What next for Italy? These are the five likeliest scenarios
Prime Minister Conte delivers a speech to Italian Senate. Photo: Andreas Solaro/AFP

Conte handed in his resignation after lashing out at far-right Interior Minister Matteo Salvini. Conte accused the Interior Minister of pursuing his own interests by pulling the plug on the ruling coalition with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S).

As president, Mattarella wields important powers including the ability to dissolve parliament, call elections and pick prime ministers. Here are some of his options to forge a way out of the political crisis:

1. An unlikely coalition

Negotiations between Italy's deeply divided parties would be difficult, although a new alliance between M5S and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) is being discussed.This would torpedo Salvini's plan to force elections and become prime minister, and would lead to a new government without his anti-immigration League.

In a bid to get a PD-M5S alliance off the ground, previously almost unthinkable, former PD premier Matteo Renzi has said he will not participate. Many in the anti-establishment party view him as elitist, so this could open up the possibility of talks.

2. A pro-European coalition

Romano Prodi, the former centre-left premier and ex-president of the European Commission, has proposed a unity government involving M5S, the PD and Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right Forza Italia. This would effectively team up the main parties in coalition against Salvini.

After a year of Salvini's highly critical anti-EU rhetoric, Prodi said the new coalition would allow a “reintegration of Italy as an active member of the European Union.” Such a government would likely be welcomed in Brussels.

Supporters of the far-right leader Salvini show support outside of Italian senate. Photo: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP

3. Snap election

Mattarella is responsible for verifying the viability of a new government coalition, based on proposals from political parties. If he believes no stable majority exists to govern, he may decide to call a snap election, possibly at the end of October.

This would grant Salvini his wish, with polls suggesting his League party and right-wing allies could win. Salvini could be crowned prime minister with the League in coalition with the anti-immigration, anti-LGBT Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia. But of course, it's impossible to say what the result of any election would be.

4. A technocrat government

Alternatively, Mattarella could decide to appoint a new caretaker administration. This government of technocrats would manage day-to-day business ahead of a new election, probably next year.

This would allow them to pass next year's budget to avoid an automatic rise in value-added tax that would hit the least well-off the hardest.

5. U-turn coalition

Although extremely unlikely, a reconciliation between the League and M5S cannot be totally ruled out.

Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini speaks to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. Photo: Andreas Solaro/AFP

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EUROPEAN UNION

Italian PM Meloni says will stand in EU Parliament elections

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Sunday she would stand in upcoming European Parliament elections, a move apparently calculated to boost her far-right party, although she would be forced to resign immediately.

Italian PM Meloni says will stand in EU Parliament elections

Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which has neo-Fascist roots, came top in Italy’s 2022 general election with 26 percent of the vote.

It is polling at similar levels ahead of the European elections on from June 6-9.

With Meloni heading the list of candidates, Brothers of Italy could exploit its national popularity at the EU level, even though EU rules require that any winner already holding a ministerial position must immediately resign from the EU assembly.

“We want to do in Europe exactly what we did in Italy on September 25, 2022 — creating a majority that brings together the forces of the right to finally send the left into opposition, even in Europe!” Meloni told a party event in the Adriatic city of Pescara.

In a fiery, sweeping speech touching briefly on issues from surrogacy and Ramadan to artificial meat, Meloni extolled her coalition government’s one-and-a-half years in power and what she said were its efforts to combat illegal immigration, protect families and defend Christian values.

After speaking for over an hour in the combative tone reminiscent of her election campaigns, Meloni said she had decided to run for a seat in the European Parliament.

READ ALSO: How much control does Giorgia Meloni’s government have over Italian media?

“I’m doing it because I want to ask Italians if they are satisfied with the work we are doing in Italy and that we’re doing in Europe,” she said, suggesting that only she could unite Europe’s conservatives.

“I’m doing it because in addition to being president of Brothers of Italy I’m also the leader of the European conservatives who want to have a decisive role in changing the course of European politics,” she added.

In her rise to power, Meloni, as head of Brothers of Italy, often railed against the European Union, “LGBT lobbies” and what she has called the politically correct rhetoric of the left, appealing to many voters with her straight talk.

“I am Giorgia, I am a woman, I am a mother, I am Italian, I am a Christian” she famously declared at a 2019 rally.

She used a similar tone Sunday, instructing voters to simply write “Giorgia” on their ballots.

“I have always been, I am, and will always be proud of being an ordinary person,” she shouted.

EU rules require that “newly elected MEP credentials undergo verification to ascertain that they do not hold an office that is incompatible with being a Member of the European Parliament,” including being a government minister.

READ ALSO: Why is Italy’s government being accused of helping tax dodgers?

The strategy has been used before, most recently in Italy in 2019 by Meloni’s deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, who leads the far-right Lega party.

The EU Parliament elections do not provide for alliances within Italy’s parties, meaning that Brothers of Italy will be in direct competition with its coalition partners Lega and Forza Italia, founded by Silvio Berlusconi.

The Lega and Forza Italia are polling at about seven percent and eight percent, respectively.

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