“Switzerland will need up to half a million more workers in the next decade – but not every worker is equally sought after.
“Demand is high in the health and care sectors, whereas employment will stagnate in many other industries,” says the forecast by UBS.
Switzerland says the need for a potential 500,000 workers will come from baby-boomers retiring and structural changes to the labour market.
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The report, based on long-term employment statistics reads: “UBS economists expect the labour force to grow by only 200,000 in the next ten years, even with a net immigration of 60,000 people per year.
“That is far from enough to cover the expected demand for workers. If employment growth continues as it has since 1960, Switzerland will have a shortfall of over 300,000 workers in the coming ten years. If demand remains the same as in the last 15 years, that figure will be 500,000.”
UBS says that not all sectors will need workers, however, and that the jobs boom “is primarily taking place in sectors in which predominantly women are currently employed” such as the health and care sectors.
“In future, men will increasingly have to try their hand at traditionally female occupations,” it reads.
UBS believes the worker shortage shouldn't just be met by immigration alone, which would meet large-scale “social and political resistance”.
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The report says: “In the next ten years, Switzerland would need net annual immigration amounting to more than 100,000 people to meet the demands of the labor market with growth in employment of 1% per year.
“Immigration of this magnitude would, however, meet considerable political and social resistance, which may also place a strain on the relationship with the EU.
“For that reason, immigration should not be the first and only option for the recruitment of additional workers,” the forecast reads.
UBS says that other approaches to expanding the workforce need to be looked at including greater integration of the unemployed, a more flexible retirement age and a (further) increase in the participation of women in the labor market.
“If not through immigration, then the labour force could be enlarged by means of a higher participation rate. In fact, 80 percent of women are already in the labour market, although 45 percent of them are working part time, the report writes.
“Particularly in the case of women whose children are no longer at school, the opportunity to increase their working hours further and hence to play a bigger part in the labour market may be attractive.”