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ELECTION

Spain’s general election: What next?

Flush from his victory at the polls Pedro Sanchez now has some difficult decisions to make.

Spain's general election: What next?
Photo: AFP

Sanchez, who has reinforced his position after seizing power and ousting conservative prime minister Mariano Rajoy in a no-confidence vote last June now has to forge alliances to govern.

With 123 seats, Pedro Sanchez’s socialists fall well short of the magic 176 needed to form a majority in the 350-seat lower chamber of Spain’s parliament.

This is the division of seats  in the 350 seat parliament with 99.99 percent of the votes counted. 

The socialists have vowed to rule with minority government, relying on the intermittent of political partners but in order for Sanchez to be sworn in as Prime Minister he needs to secure a majority in a parliamentary vote – the investiture vote.

As the leader of the party which won the biggest share of the vote, Sanchez will be invited by King Felipe VI to have the first chance at forming a government. 

Parliament will be reconvened on May 21st when Sanchez’s leadership will be put to the vote. 

If in a first vote Sanchez must win an absolute majority – with at least 176 votes in his favour – to become prime minister but if he fails to do so, then he must only secure a ‘simple majority’ – with more voting for him than against him – to take the role.

Will he forge an alliance of the left, risking precarious support from regional parties including the Catalan separatists, as he has done over the past ten months?

Or will he turn his back on Podemos and instead consider a moderate centrist coalition with Ciudadanos?

Let’s take a look at his options:

Left wing alliance:

The PSOE and Unidos Podemos (UP) are natural bed-fellows and pony-tailed leader of the ‘radical left’ Pablo Iglesias has already pledged to support Pedro Sanchez in his efforts to make a government.

But even with Podemos’s 42 seats, the alliance falls 11 seats short of reaching a majority.

That means that they will have to garner the support of smaller regional parties.

With or without the Catalans?

The Basque PNV will likely support Sanchez with their six seats, add the two seats from the Canaries Coalition (CC-PNC) plus the Cantabria Regional Party (PRC) and Valencia’s Compromis which have one each, and the number in support of Sanchez reaches 175, just one short of a majority vote.  While this isn’t enough to secure his position as PM in the first round he would just need one abstention in the second round vote to become PM.   

But Sanchez could easily form a government with the support of Catalan regional parties. Catalan Republic Left (ERC) win15 seats and Junts Per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) have 7 seats. 

Together with the other regional parties plus the separatist Basque party EH Bildu that would bring the numbers to above 200 seats.

Remember, Sanchez was able to oust Rajoy and seize power with a no-confidence vote because he had the backing of regional parties including the troublesome Catalan independistas.

But his position was precarious and ultimately he was forced to call early elections after the Catalan parties, angered at the jailing and subsequent trial of separatist leaders refused to support his budget.

So Sanchez will be keen to form a government not reliant on the votes of the Catalan separatists, so as not to be held hostage to their cause.

Alliance of the centre

With Ciudadanos taking the third largest share of the votes, wouldn’t they be best placed to form an alliance with the socialists?

 In an editorial on Monday, daily newspaper El Mundo urged Sanchez to “reach out to Rivera and consider forming a moderate government — which would undoubtedly go down well in Europe — to ensure the stability” of the country.

The Cs 57 seats added to the Socialists 123 seats makes a total of 180 – four over the absolute majority needed and would cut out the need for striking a deal with the regional parties. But it doesn’t look likely.

Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera, built his campaign on disparaging Sanchez, criticising his attempts to negotiate with Catalan separatist parties in a bid to ease a secession crisis in the northeastern region.

Although nothing has yet been officially stated from Socialist HQ, Sanchez appeared to dismiss the possibility during post-result celebrations on Sunday night.

Met by a crowd chanting “Not with Rivera! Not with Rivera!” outside PSOE headquarters in Madrid’s Calle Ferraz, a smiling Sánchez replied, “I think that’s pretty clear.”

Senior Ciudanos leader Ines Arrimadas told radio Onda Cero on Monday her party could not ally with Sanchez, calling him a “public danger, someone capable of anything” to stay in power.

Poltical deadlock

Everyone is keen to avoid to the months of deadlock that followed the December 2015 election when an inconclusive election saw the PP win the largest share of the vote but without enough support to form a government. Back then, Sanchez first tried and failed to form a government and a second election was called for June, when the PP won enough seats to form a government with the support of Ciudadanos. 

But with regional, local and European Parliament elections scheduled for May 26th, the parties are wary of making any commitments that might put voters off, commentators suggested it was unlikely that a new government be formed before June. 

ANALYSIS: Spain chooses left-wing regional diversity while Vox divides the right

 

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ELECTION

German Greens’ chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news

With Germany's Green party leading the polls ahead of September's general elections, the ecologists' would-be successor to Angela Merkel has become increasingly targeted by internet trolls and fake news in recent weeks.

German Greens' chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news
The Greens chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock on April 26th. Photo: DPA

From wild claims about CO2-emitting cats and dogs to George Soros photo collages, 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock has been the subject of a dizzying array of fake news, conspiracy theories and online attacks since she was announced as the Greens’ chancellor candidate in mid-April.

The latest polls have the Greens either ahead of or level with Merkel’s ruling conservatives, as the once fringe party further establishes itself as a leading electoral force in Europe’s biggest economy.

Baerbock herself also consistently polls higher than her conservative and centre-left rivals in the race to succeed Merkel, who will leave office after 16 years this autumn.

Yet her popularity has also brought about unwanted attention and a glut of fake news stories aimed at discrediting Baerbock as she bids to become Germany’s first Green chancellor.

READ ALSO:

False claims

Among the false stories circulating about Baerbock is the bizarre claim that she wants to ban household pets in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Another fake story firmly denied by the party claimed that she defied rules on mask-wearing and social-distancing by embracing colleagues upon her nomination earlier this month.

Baerbock has also been presented as a “model student” of Hungarian billionaire George Soros – a hate figure for the European far-right and anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists – in a mocked-up social media graphic shared among others by a far-right MP.

More serious online attacks include a purported photo of Baerbock which in fact shows a similar-looking naked model.

The Greens’ campaign manager Michael Kellner said that the attempts to discredit Baerbock had “taken on a new dimension”, that “women are targeted more heavily by online attacks than men, and that is also true of our candidate”.

Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock earlier this month. Photo: DPA

Other false claims about the party include reports of a proposed ban on barbecues, as well as plans to disarm the police and enforce the teaching of the Quran in schools.

While such reports are patently absurd, they are potentially damaging to Baerbock and her party as they bid to spring a surprise victory in September.

“She has a very real chance, but the coming weeks are going to be very important because Baerbock’s public image is still taking shape,” Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University told AFP.

In a bid to fight back against the flood of false information, the party has launched a new “online fire service” to report fake news stories.

READ ALSO: Greens become ‘most popular political party’ in Germany

Russian disinformation

Yet stemming the tide is no easy job, with many of those who peddle disinformation now using private messaging services such as WhatsApp and Telegram rather than public platforms such as Facebook.

The pandemic and ongoing restrictions on public life will also make it harder for the campaign to push through their own narratives at public events.

Miro Dittrich of Germany’s Amadeu-Antonio anti-racism foundation claims that lockdown has “played a role” in the spread of fake news.

“People are isolated from their social environment and are spending a lot more time online,” he said.

Another factor is Russia, which has made Germany a primary target of its efforts to spread disinformation in Europe.

According to the European anti-disinformation platform EUvsDisinfo, Germany has been the target of 700 Russian disinformation cases since 2015, compared to 300 aimed at France and 170 at Italy.

As an outspoken critic of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, Baerbock may well become a target of such attacks during the election campaign.

By Mathieu FOULKES

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