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ELECTION

Biggest loser: Why has Spain’s main right-wing party lost so many votes?

Spain’s conservative Popular Party (PP) has recorded the worst election results in its history. Why have things gone so wrong for the country’s most longstanding right-wing party?

Biggest loser: Why has Spain's main right-wing party lost so many votes?
Pablo Casado has been the PP's least voted leader ever in Spanish general elections. Photos: AFP

Spain’s Popular Party, once the default choice for conservatives in the country, on Sunday recorded just 16.7 percent of the vote in the country’s general elections, giving it a lowly 66 seats.

The party headed by 38-year-old Pablo Casado have lost more than half of their seats since 2016 (137 down to 66, a record drop and record low), with centre-right Ciudadanos making major gains (from 32 to 57) and radical-right outsiders Vox barging into national politics (0 to 24 seats). 

That’s in stark contrast to the PP’s landslide victory in 2011, when crisis-hit Spain gave Mariano Rajoy 44.6 percent of the vote (186 seats), the party’s best ever general election result.

Why has the PP done so badly?

A lot can happen in eight years. For the PP, this time period has been largely spent fending off allegations of corruption which have seen them, the Socialists and the country’s political status quo as a whole called into question.

This lack of confidence in the political establishment saw the emergence of left-wing Podemos and centre-right party Ciudadanos, the latter starting to nibble away at the PP voter base in the 2016 general elections with 14 percent of the vote.

In May 2018, a motion of no confidence forced Mariano Rajoy to stand down after Spain's National Court ruled that his party had profited from funds obtained illegally through “an authentic and efficient system of institutional corruption” including a slush fund.

But it was perhaps the recent irruption of far-right newcomers Vox that has caused the most harm to the ‘Populares’.

Founded by a former member of the Popular Party (PP) – Santiago Abascal – Vox have routinely accused the PP of going soft on pressing issues such as immigration and the separatist cause in Catalonia. 

Conversely, Ciudadanos’s leader Albert Rivera has continued to gain the support of younger conservatives with more moderate views on matters such as religion and women’s rights compared to the PP’s traditional stance.

This fragmentation of the Spanish right has resulted in the PP losing votes on the edges of each side of the conservative spectrum.

The situation has not been alleviated either by the choice of Pablo Casado as new PP leader, a hard liner in principle who opposes euthanasia and Catalan independence, but who in practice doesn’t have the charisma of Abascal or the progressiveness of Rivera. 

SEE ALSO: 

When have Spain’s PP reached power?

In 1996, Spain’s Popular Party edged past the socialists with 9.7 million votes, only 300,000 more than the PSOE, allowing Jose María Aznar to take power and become the country’s first conservative leader in post-dictatorship Spain..

Four years later, the PP won again, this time with 10.3 million votes (44.5 percent), giving Aznar an absolute majority.

But the tables turned for Aznar’s party in 2004 with a shock victory for the country’s socialists, just three days after the Madrid train bombings cost 193 people their lives.

The Socialists governed in Spain until 2011, after which Mariano Rajoy took office for the Popular Party following a landslide election win. Rajoy was Prime Minister until he was ousted in 2018.   

José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy, Spain's only two PP Prime Ministers. 

 

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ELECTION

German Greens’ chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news

With Germany's Green party leading the polls ahead of September's general elections, the ecologists' would-be successor to Angela Merkel has become increasingly targeted by internet trolls and fake news in recent weeks.

German Greens' chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news
The Greens chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock on April 26th. Photo: DPA

From wild claims about CO2-emitting cats and dogs to George Soros photo collages, 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock has been the subject of a dizzying array of fake news, conspiracy theories and online attacks since she was announced as the Greens’ chancellor candidate in mid-April.

The latest polls have the Greens either ahead of or level with Merkel’s ruling conservatives, as the once fringe party further establishes itself as a leading electoral force in Europe’s biggest economy.

Baerbock herself also consistently polls higher than her conservative and centre-left rivals in the race to succeed Merkel, who will leave office after 16 years this autumn.

Yet her popularity has also brought about unwanted attention and a glut of fake news stories aimed at discrediting Baerbock as she bids to become Germany’s first Green chancellor.

READ ALSO:

False claims

Among the false stories circulating about Baerbock is the bizarre claim that she wants to ban household pets in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Another fake story firmly denied by the party claimed that she defied rules on mask-wearing and social-distancing by embracing colleagues upon her nomination earlier this month.

Baerbock has also been presented as a “model student” of Hungarian billionaire George Soros – a hate figure for the European far-right and anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists – in a mocked-up social media graphic shared among others by a far-right MP.

More serious online attacks include a purported photo of Baerbock which in fact shows a similar-looking naked model.

The Greens’ campaign manager Michael Kellner said that the attempts to discredit Baerbock had “taken on a new dimension”, that “women are targeted more heavily by online attacks than men, and that is also true of our candidate”.

Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock earlier this month. Photo: DPA

Other false claims about the party include reports of a proposed ban on barbecues, as well as plans to disarm the police and enforce the teaching of the Quran in schools.

While such reports are patently absurd, they are potentially damaging to Baerbock and her party as they bid to spring a surprise victory in September.

“She has a very real chance, but the coming weeks are going to be very important because Baerbock’s public image is still taking shape,” Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University told AFP.

In a bid to fight back against the flood of false information, the party has launched a new “online fire service” to report fake news stories.

READ ALSO: Greens become ‘most popular political party’ in Germany

Russian disinformation

Yet stemming the tide is no easy job, with many of those who peddle disinformation now using private messaging services such as WhatsApp and Telegram rather than public platforms such as Facebook.

The pandemic and ongoing restrictions on public life will also make it harder for the campaign to push through their own narratives at public events.

Miro Dittrich of Germany’s Amadeu-Antonio anti-racism foundation claims that lockdown has “played a role” in the spread of fake news.

“People are isolated from their social environment and are spending a lot more time online,” he said.

Another factor is Russia, which has made Germany a primary target of its efforts to spread disinformation in Europe.

According to the European anti-disinformation platform EUvsDisinfo, Germany has been the target of 700 Russian disinformation cases since 2015, compared to 300 aimed at France and 170 at Italy.

As an outspoken critic of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, Baerbock may well become a target of such attacks during the election campaign.

By Mathieu FOULKES

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