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ECONOMY

Germany under increasing pressure to boost spending

European economic power Germany is coming under increasing pressure to boost spending to accelerate economic growth, as its massive surpluses create growing friction with other countries.

Germany under increasing pressure to boost spending
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire with German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Peter Altmaier. File photo: DPA

The dispute has simmered since the 2008 global financial crisis but French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned Friday that widening differences over economic policy among eurozone countries could undermine the currency union itself.

“Growing economic divisions among member states are unsustainable in the long term and could result in the disappearance of the common currency project,” Le Maire told reporters on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings.

“Countries with solid budgets must invest more,” Le Maire said. “Those with the means shouldn't hoard money for years and years, allowing growth to deteriorate.”

That was the same message pushed by the IMF itself, which on Friday again urged Germany to boost spending in order to accelerate growth and raise wages while reducing its budget and trade surpluses.

“We continue to see a case for eurozone countries that have fiscal space, like Germany, to increase spending or cut taxes to help boost potential growth,” Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF European Department, told reporters.

He highlighted Germany's very large budget and trade surpluses, which traditionally would have caused the national currency to strengthen, something that is no longer possible given the common currency in the eurozone.

That means that even with low unemployment wages are rising very slowly, Thomsen said.

While he acknowledged that Germany's spending increase in 2019 amounts to 0.7 percent of the economy, which he called “notable,” he said “we need to see more and keep it coming.”

Amid a “pronounced and worrisome” global economic slowdown, Le Maire called for a European “growth pact” which would include increased spending by economies with the “fiscal space” to do so, an allusion to Germany and the Netherlands.

Those governments should “invest in new projects, innovation, so that there can be more cooperation and solidarity in the eurozone.”

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz rejected the criticism and denied his country was not doing enough to stimulate its economy.

“We have a very expansive investment strategy,” he said at a separate media briefing.

And Berlin is increasing public investment in infrastructure, education and the digital economy.

“We did already what everybody is asking us.”

Le Maire said countries like France also should pursue economic reforms and shore up their finances, something Paris is “determined” to do with measures “that get results.”

The country is “clear-eyed about France's economic weaknesses,” he said, adding, “I hope that every euro area member will have the same wisdom and clarity. If not, there can be no common future.”

READ ALSO: Germany sees biggest consumer spending growth in 24 years

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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