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An early general election in Italy is likely, analysts say

The far-right League and its leader Matteo Salvini will "engineer a political crisis to trigger a general election" this year, analysts predict in a new forecast released today.

Published: 31 January 2019 11:00 CET
Updated: 31 January 2019 13:56 CET
An early general election in Italy is likely, analysts say
(L-R) Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and League leader Matteo Salvini. Photo: AFP

And the Italian economy will barely avoid a recession, with both spending and investments expected to slow down, according to a new forecast released today by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

“We expect Mr Salvini to seek to engineer a political crisis late this year in an effort to precipitate a general election in late 2019, or more likely, in the first half of 2020,” EIU analyst Peter Ceretti told The Local Italy.

“Salvini’s ultimate goal is to replace Silvio Berlusconi as the leader of a broad coalition of the centre-right,” Ceretti said.

He added that the League would be “well positioned to become the country’s largest party at an early poll.”

Support for the once-marginal party is growing. The League won about 17 percent of the total vote at the general election in March 2018 and is now polling at around 32 percent.

League leader Matteo Salvini. Photo: AFP

Though Salvini is co-deputy prime minister, alongside Luigi Di Maio, leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S), his anti-immigrant rhetoric has dominated Italian politics since his party formed a coalition government with M5S in June 2018.

“Since the formation of the government the League has been in the driving seat, eclipsing M5S in terms of popularity,” said Ceretti.

Analysts will be closely watching the European Parliament Elections this May, at which they say the League “will be able to deploy its anti-EU rhetoric to full effect and lock-in its recent gains in support.”

READ ALSO: Is italy's League a 'far-right' party?

Salvini is also expected to seek to cement the newfound popularity of the League (formerly the Northern League) beyond its heartland in the affluent north at upcoming Italian regional elections.

Italian regional elections in February (Abruzzo, Sardegna), March (Basilicata), May (Piemonte) and November (Calabria, Emilia Romagna) “will give the party the opportunity to consolidate its power across the country,” said Ceretti.

The League is expected to make significant gains in Emilia Romagna, the historic heart of Italy's left-leaning 'Red Belt'.

“A victory in several regions would confirm the Lega's dominance throughout the country,” said Ceretti.

While M5S’s voter base is mainly in the poorer south of Italy, Salvini’s party has so far struggled to gain votes in southern regions after previously deriding southern Italians as layabouts and criminals.

READ ALSO: Matteo Salvini, Italy's rebranded nationalist sharing power with former enemy

Support for M5S has been waning since the national elections in March 2018, and the League is now polling well ahead of M5S.

“The League and M5S have competing policy priorities, which will eventually create frictions within the government, especially if economic growth disappoints and the dispute with the EU on fiscal policy intensifies.”

The European Commission is expected to monitor Italy’s fiscal performance closely after the drawn-out dispute over the 2019 draft budget.

Photo: AFP

Any signs of slippage are likely to be met with stern warnings, which could unnerve investors and push up government borrowing costs once again.

Real GDP growth will slow markedly to 0.2 percent, the EIU said, down from an estimated 0.9 percent in 2018. It foresees a slowdown in both investment and consumer spending.

Another pressure point is a criminal case being brought against Salvini. The deputy premier is facing potential charges over his refusal to let a ship with rescued migrants dock in Italy last summer.

This puts M5S in tricky position: the “anti-corruption” party has long said any minister investigated for a crime should be dismissed. But Di Maio isn’t expected to demand Salvini’s resignation.

“M5S has made little opposition to the League's policy decisions. We believe that M5S will probably continue to appease the League in the near term,” said Ceretti.

However, he points out that the political landscape is “fraught with risks” for the League.

“First, the M5S-Lega government is very popular, and Mr Salvini’s manoeuvring could appear opportunistic to voters who are satisfied with its performance.”

And ultimately, it’s up to President Sergio Mattarella, not parliament, to decide whether the country should hold a new general election.

By resigning and opening a government crisis, Ceretti said, “Salvini would effectively be putting Sergio Mattarella in the driver’s seat and surrendering control of the situation.”

Photo: Miguel Medina/AFP

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POLITICS

‘Worrying developments’: NGOs warn of growing pressure on Italian media freedom

Media freedom in Italy has come increasingly under pressure since Giorgia Meloni's hard-right government took office, a group of European NGOs warned on Friday following an urgent fact-finding summit.

Published: 17 May 2024 17:40 CEST
‘Worrying developments’: NGOs warn of growing pressure on Italian media freedom

They highlighted among their concerns the continued criminalisation of defamation – a law Meloni herself has used against a high-profile journalist – and the proposed takeover of a major news agency by a right-wing MP.

The two-day mission, led by the European Federation of Journalists (EFJ), was planned for the autumn but brought forward due to “worrying developments”, Andreas Lamm of the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom (ECPMF) told a press conference.

The ECPMF’s monitoring project, which records incidents affecting media freedom such as legal action, editorial interference and physical attacks, recorded a spike in Italy’s numbers from 46 in 2022 to 80 in 2023.

There have been 49 so far this year.

Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, took office as head of a hard-right coalition government in October 2022.

A key concern of the NGOs is the increased political influence over the RAI public broadcaster, which triggered a strike by its journalists this month.

READ ALSO: Italy’s press freedom ranking drops amid fears of government ‘censorship’

“We know RAI was always politicised…but now we are at another level,” said Renate Schroeder, director of the Brussels-based EFJ.

The NGO representatives – who will write up a formal report in the coming weeks – recommended the appointment of fully independent directors to RAI, among other measures.

They also raised concerns about the failure of repeated Italian governments to decriminalise defamation, despite calls for reform by the country’s Constitutional Court.

Meloni herself successfully sued journalist Roberto Saviano last year for criticising her attitude to migrants.

“In a European democracy a prime minister does not respond to criticism by legally intimidating writers like Saviano,” said David Diaz-Jogeix of London-based Article 19.

He said that a proposed reform being debated in parliament, which would replace imprisonment with fines of up to 50,000 euros, “does not meet the bare minimum of international and European standards of freedom of expression”.

The experts also warned about the mooted takeover of the AGI news agency by a group owned by a member of parliament with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party – a proposal that also triggered journalist strikes.

READ ALSO: How much control does Giorgia Meloni’s government have over Italian media?

Beatrice Chioccioli of the International Press Institute said it posed a “significant risk for the editorial independence” of the agency.

The so-called Media Freedom Rapid Response (MFRR) consortium expressed disappointment that no member of Meloni’s coalition responded to requests to meet with them.

They said that, as things stand, Italy is likely to be in breach of a new EU media freedom law, introduced partly because of fears of deteriorating standards in countries such as Hungary and Poland.

Schroeder said next month’s European Parliament elections could be a “turning point”, warning that an increase in power of the far-right across the bloc “will have an influence also on media freedom”.

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