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Germany’s ruling coalition parties hit all-time low, Greens on the up

A poll published on Friday says Germany's governing coalition parties - the CDU/CSU and SPD - would receive just 39 percent of the vote if there were Bundestag elections on Sunday, the lowest ever combined result.

Published: 19 October 2018 08:52 CEST

Germany's ruling coalition parties hit all-time low, Greens on the up

Archive picture of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), Horst Seehofer (CSU) and Andrea Nahles (SPD). Photo: DPA

The Union and the Social Democrats had reached a combined total of 53 percent of the vote after the Bundestag elections last year and they went on to form the grand coalition, reports Tagesschau.

But according to the latest ‘Deutschlandtrend' survey published by German broadcaster ARD, the CDU/CSU would get 25 percent of the vote and the SPD 14 percent. This is the worst result for both parties since the poll started in 1997.

In total, the governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD would receive just 39 percent of the votes – in the 2017 federal elections that took place in September last year, both together still reached 53.5 percent.

Greens and AfD in front of SPD

The Greens have celebrated rising election poll results recently and a surge in membership – and at the recent Bavaria state election the party scooped 17.5 percent. In Friday's survey, 19 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Greens, the highest figure since September 2011.

Im aktuellen #DeutschlandTrend kommt die Regierungskoalition nur noch auf 39 Prozent – ein Rekord-Negativwert. pic.twitter.com/23jOv2Pc5z

— tagesschau (@tagesschau) October 19, 2018

A total of 16 percent would vote in favour of the AfD, meaning that the both parties are ahead of the SPD.

The Left (Die Linke) would get nine percent of the votes and the Free Democrats (FDP) eleven percent.

Compared to the 'Deutschlandtrend' survey on October 11th, 2018, the CDU/CSU, SPD and the Left each lose one percentage point. The FDP gains one percentage point, the Greens two percentage points. The voting share for the AfD remains unchanged.

Loss of stability or igniting the debate?

The poll also showed that 51 percent of those eligible to vote are concerned that the dwindling support of the CDU, CSU and SPD – the so-called German Volksparteien, or peoples' parties – could jeopardize political stability in Germany.

But 47 percent of respondents do not share this fear. They expect the new balance of power to lead to broader political debates with several small to medium-sized parties.

Half of the supporters of the Left, Greens and FDP also share the concern about the loss of importance of the mainstream parties. Among AfD supporters, the figure is just under a third.

A total of 1040 voters were interviewed by the Infratest dimap institute for the survey this week and they were asked to answer the questions as if Bundestag elections were taking place Sunday.

Coalition talks continue in Bavaria

The survey was released as the CSU and Free Voters continued their negotiations in a bid to form a coalition together in the southern German state of Bavaria. It came after a short consultation phase between the two parties following the state election on Sunday.

The CSU dropped 10 percentage points to receive 37.2 percent of the vote, losing their absolute majority, while the Free Voters received 11.6 percent.

The parties “have left no doubt that they see themselves as partners”, reports DPA. The CSU is counting on stability, while Free Voters stress that they see no obstacles to forming a coalition, the press agency adds.

The chairman of the Greens, Robert Habeck, expressed his disappointment with the CSU decision. He told the German media group RND that choosing the Free Voters was “comfortable” for the party but showed the CSU had no desire for change.

Habeck said he interpreted the result of the Bavarian state elections as an appeal for Greens to be in the government in Bavaria participation in the government.

“The voters gave us the task of implementing a real political breakthrough for Bavaria,” he said. Habeck told RND that “we were clearly voted the second strongest force”.

Politics pause

Meanwhile, in a departure away from politics but sticking with voting, Friday's Deutschlandtrend poll also asked about an apolitical topic: the national football coach.

Despite the recent defeats of the German national football team, support for coach Joachim Löw apparently continues.

A relative majority of 43 percent of the respondents is in favour of Löw remaining national coach. A total of 34 percent said they wanted a replacement, while 20 percent said they were not interested in football and therefore had no opinion on the subject.

Member comments

Anonymous - 12 February 2020 at 08:41 CET

Could AFD, the Green Party and the NPD form a coilition.

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Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.