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Merkel vows to ‘win back trust’ after Bavaria poll debacle

German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed Monday to "win back trust" from voters after squabbling within her three-party coalition was blamed for severe election losses in the state of Bavaria.

Merkel vows to 'win back trust' after Bavaria poll debacle
Angela Merkel on Monday. Photo: DPA

Looking back at a turbulent year since 2017 general elections, which saw painful coalition talks followed by harsh infighting on immigration, she conceded that “a lot of trust has been lost”.

Her lesson from Sunday's Bavaria polls, where her governing partners the CSU and the SPD suffered heavy losses, was that “I as the chancellor must do more to ensure that this trust is there”.

Her own Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party the CSU “can be expected to act in a united way,” she said, pointing to her deep rift with the CSU's hardline Interior Minister Horst Seehofer.

The governing parties were in shell-shock after Sunday's regional election, where the CSU took a 10-point dive to 37 percent, losing its absolute majority in the Alpine state it has ruled since the 1960s.

Merkel's other national coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), dropped to 9.7 percent, halving their support in their worst-ever result in any state poll.

'Brutal losses' 

The biggest winners Sunday were the opposition Greens, who surged to become Bavaria's second strongest party with 17.5 percent, drawing support especially in big cities like Munich.

SEE ALSO: The winners and losers – 7 things you need to know about the Bavarian elections

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has railed against Merkel's 2015 decision to keep open German borders to a mass influx of refugees and migrants, scored 10 percent.

Their success was cheered by right-wing leaders including Marine Le Pen of France and Italy's Matteo Salvini, who said that “in Bavaria, change has won”.

The AfD's Alice Weidel jubilantly declared that Merkel's government “is not a grand coalition but a mini coalition” and demanded she “clear the way for new elections”.

The poll debacle cast a dark cloud over Merkel's troubled grand coalition, dubbed the “GroKo”, said Der Spiegel.

“The Bavaria election has made an early end to the GroKo much more likely,” it said.  “Two of three partners in the GroKo have suffered brutal losses. The third, Angela Merkel's CDU, fears the consequences.”

Shattered certainties 

The Bavaria poll result shattered old certainties for the CSU, which has ruled almost single-handedly for decades in the southern state known for its fairytale castles, Oktoberfest and crucifixes on classroom walls.

Since the mass migrant arrivals, in which Bavaria was Germany's frontline state, the CSU has adopted far tougher anti-immigration and law and order positions.

Nonetheless, they and other big parties took heavy losses in 2017 federal elections to the AfD, which became the first right-wing extremist party to enter the German parliament in significant numbers.

The CSU's Seehofer has harshly criticised Merkel and the SPD over their more liberal stance on immigration, twice bringing their alliance to the brink of collapse.

The political battles, one centred on securing German borders against asylum seekers, have distracted Merkel's fourth-term government and angered voters.

After Sunday's election, Seehofer, 69, insisted he would stay on as minister, even as a poll for news weekly Focus said 46 percent of Germans blame him and his brinkmanship for the CSU's historically-poor result.

Merkel's 'litmus test' 

The Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily said,  following what it labelled a new milestone in the decline of German mainstream parties, Merkel's coalition now has a stark choice: a return to “common sense, or new elections”.

The SPD's deputy leader Ralf Stegner told Phoenix TV that “the citizens delivered a resounding slap” to the governing parties and that, unless they change, “the grand coalition won't last much longer”.

In Berlin, the GroKo leaders are now nervously looking ahead to another landmark regional vote at the end of the month.

Voters go to the polls on October 28 in central Hesse state, home to the financial hub Frankfurt, where polls say Merkel ally Volker Bouffier will face an uphill battle to stay on as state premier.

Die Welt daily said the regional vote will be “the litmus test” for Merkel, who is running for re-election as CDU party chief in December, stressing that “Merkel's future could be decided in Hesse”.

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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