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OPINION: Why I’m not scared of a ‘no deal’ Brexit

Sue Wilson, chair of pro-European campaign group Bremain in Spain, considers the terrifying vision of a post-Brexit future if Theresa May fails to secure a deal and insists it's simply not an option.

Published: 26 September 2018 10:42 CEST

OPINION: Why I'm not scared of a 'no deal' Brexit

Sue Wilson speaking at the "Stop Brexit" March in Manchester last year.

There has been much talk recently of the dire potential consequences of a ‘no-deal’ scenario, should the Brexit negotiations fail. With the recent publication of the last of the government’s own technical reports, there have been claims of scaremongering, contradicted by Brextremists saying, no need to worry, it all be fine – eventually.

Whether it’s the potential damage to the economy, job losses, rising prices, flights grounded, security concerns or the need to stockpile food and medicine, it all paints a terrifying vision of a post-Brexit future if May fails to secure a deal.

Citizens’ rights barely even warrant a mention, and even then, we’re much more likely to hear that EU citizens rights would be protected, whatever that might mean in May’s immigrant-unfriendly Britain. Meanwhile Brits in Europe are again inconvenient, ignored, invisible.

Everyday I am confronted by worried Bremain in Spain members who don’t know what to believe, who are concerned about their own and their families’ futures and who just want all this nonsense to stop. Many are so anxious at the prospect of a ‘no deal’ scenario that they are ready to accept any bad deal, rather than the worst case, cliff-edge scenario – anything that gives them a glimmer of hope.

It breaks my heart when I’m unable to ease their pain or reassure them that all will be well. However, I do not share that anxiety over the threat of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. On the contrary, I believe, as does the entire Bremain Council and many of our members, that ‘no deal’ is an impossibility.

It is not a view that is shared by many other groups in the EU. Others are busy drawing up contingency plans, much like the government is doing. Of course, it is wise to be aware of the potential dangers, and I would absolutely recommend that residents ensure they have all their paperwork in order. No harm in preparing for the worst whilst hoping for the best.

Photo: Depositphotos

I have believed all along that the ‘no deal’ option being presented by the Prime Minister is a bargaining tool. To Theresa May, pointing out the disaster this is a ‘no deal’ Brexit serves two purposes: to threaten the EU into offering a better deal; to persuade the public and parliament to support whatever bad deal May manages to negotiate, as the alternative is so unthinkable.

The EU do not seriously believe that even the British government are crazy enough to choose a ‘no deal’ option, and cannot change their negotiating position, even if they wanted to. The ‘four pillars’ that safeguard the single market will be protected at all costs, as they should be.

As regards to persuading the UK parliament to support May’s deal, it is already clear that the Chequers plan is dead in the water, in Westminster and in Brussels. It is also a nonsense to suggest that should there be no deal, we would fall into a ‘no deal’ scenario by accident or default – parliament will never allow that to happen. Around 80% of MPs oppose ‘no deal’ and would never vote for it in a month of Sundays.

So where does that leave us? It’s becoming increasingly clear that whatever deal May’ manages to secure, she’s going to struggle to get parliament to vote for it. Labour have stated categorically that they will not vote for May’s deal unless it meets their 6 tests – an impossible target bearing in mind one of those tests states that the deal must give “the exact same benefits as we have now”. With SNP, LibDems and other parties also opposing the deal, only a handful of Tory rebels need to vote against the government for the deal to be rejected. Should the deal by necessity include the “backstop”, or some other assurance that will keep the Irish border open and protect the Good Friday Agreement, May might lose the support of the DUP too.

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The UK parliament are never going to accept a Hobson’s choice “meaningful vote” on a deal vs. ‘no deal’, so what would they vote on? Could an alternative be No Brexit? Another referendum, giving the public a say on the deal before we sign on the dotted line? Hard to say but anything is possible based on how much the political landscape has shifted in the last few months, and how much public opinion has changed as the true implications of Brexit, in whatever variety, are now widely known.

Whatever happens over the next few weeks, you can be sure there will be more shocks, more surprises and a lot more posturing and name-calling. The Brexit pantomime is set to run to many more nail-biting episodes, but never fear, the good guy always triumphs in the end.

Sue Wilson is 64. She is married, retired, and has lived in Spain’s Valencia Community for 11 years. She is Chair of Bremain in Spain, a pro-European campaign group, which is a member of the coalition of British groups in the EU, British in Europe, as well as being partners of European Movement UK and members of Britain For Europe.

Sue is currently lead complainant in a legal challenge against the Prime Minister, which questions the validity of the referendum & the decision to trigger Article 50.

INTERVIEW: 'A lot of people think Brexit is done, but it's not for Brits in Europe'

In the early days of 2021, after the United Kingdom had left the EU and completed the final stage of Brexit, many British citizens returned to their home countries in Europe only to face a grilling at the border.

Though the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) technically guaranteed their right to live and work in the countries they’d settled in before Brexit, there was widespread confusion about these fundamental rights and many were treated like new arrivals.

Over time, the chaos at the airports subsided as border officials and airlines were given clearer guidance on the treatment of Brits. But three years later, a number of Brits who live on the continent still face problems when it comes to proving their post-Brexit rights.

This was the reason campaign group British in Europe decided to set up their new EU-funded ICE project. Starting this year in March, it aims to build valuable connections between UK citizens abroad and mentor the next generation of civil rights advocates around the continent. The acronym stands for ‘Inform, Empower, Connect’ and the project’s organisers describe it as “the first project of its kind”.

“It’s a completely innovative project – especially the fact that it’s across so many countries,” Jane Golding, chair of British in Europe and one of the project’s founders, told The Local.

Bringing together groups from 11 EU member states, the project aims to train up volunteers to understand both the Withdrawal Agreement and EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, as well as learning skills like advocacy and communication, using real-life civil rights cases that are referred to British in Europe.

“The ultimate goal is to amplify the messages across the wider group,” said Golding. “You start with the volunteers, they go back to their groups, then the people that we train, they go back and train people. Then they pass on that knowledge to the wider groups, on their Facebook accounts and through social media, and hopefully it all snowballs, not just in their countries but across the EU.”

‘Far-reaching repercussions’

So many years after Brexit, it’s hard to believe that there’s still a need for a project like ICE that empowers Brits to protect their rights. Indeed, the future of groups like British in Europe and regional groups like British in Germany and British in Spain felt uncertain just a year or two ago.

But Golding says there are still serious issues cropping up for Brits in several countries around Europe – they just have a different quality to the problems that arose at the start.

“In some ways it’s needed even more because as we predicted right at the beginning, at the first stage of implementation, you’ve got the more routine cases,” she explained.

“What we’re seeing now is not as many cases, but when the cases come up, they’re complex. They can have such far-reaching repercussions on people’s lives. And of course, memories start to fade. A lot of people think Brexit is already done, but it’s not.”

Volunteers in British in Europe ICE project

The volunteers of the British in Europe ICE project pose for a photo at the kick-off meeting in Brussels on May 21st, 2024. Photo courtesy of Jane Golding

Though the rights set out in the Withdrawal Agreement apply across the continent, different countries have taken different approaches to implementing them.

That means that while in Germany, for example, UK citizens simply had to declare that they lived in the country, people in neighbouring Denmark had to apply for their rights.

This led to a notorious situation in Denmark in which as many as 2,000 Brits were threatened with deportation after not applying in time or completing the right application process. According to Golding, this had a lot to do with the fact that people who arrived in 2020 weren’t given the same information as other UK migrants who arrived before.

In Sweden, meanwhile, the situation is still difficult for many Brits who lived there prior to Brexit.

“There have been issues with an anomalously high numbers of refusals compared to other countries, and they seem to be taking a very strict approach on late applications,” Golding explained.

Portugal has been another difficult case. Although the country opted for a declaratory system where Brits could simply exchange old residence documents for a new ID card after Brexit, reports suggest that the authorities have taken years to issue these cards, leaving many of the some 34,000 Brits in the country in limbo.

“While people are still waiting to have their status confirmed and have their card in their hand, it’s difficult to access a whole range of services, like health services, or applying for jobs or dealing with the authorities, or even going to the bank,” Golding said. “All of these problems just affect people’s lives.”

A French border guard checks a passport at the border

A French border guard checks a passport at the border. Photo by DENIS CHARLET / AFP

There are also concerns about the EU’s new exit and entry system (EES), due to come into force in October, which is based on biometric documentation.

“We still do not have clear data on how many people in declaratory countries like Germany, where it wasn’t compulsory to apply for the card, don’t actually have a card,” Golding said. “How is that going to play out if it’s a document-based digitalised system?”

A lack of support

In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, funding from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) was still available to support NGOs in Europe helping Brits with their migration and civil rights issues. But that temporary funding soon expired, leaving groups like British in Europe largely on their own.

“The whole point is people’s lives change at very different paces,” Golding said. “And now this project is really going to start to pick up some of those cases and report on those issues, which is really crucial and exciting for the precedent that it sets, and it’s very clearly necessary still, because people don’t just sort their lives in the 18 months that the FCDO chose to supply that funding.”

This feeling of being left alone and increasingly isolated from the UK is one that many Brits in Europe have felt in the aftermath of Brexit. But the upcoming UK election on July 4th could be a game-changer.

This time, following a change in the law, Brits who have lived abroad for more than 15 years will be able to vote for the first time.

Polling station in the UK

A polling station in the UK. Photo by Elliott Stallion on Unsplash

When it comes to the election, the message from British in Europe is clear: “Make your voice count now, make your vote count, make sure you use it,” Golding said.

With the June 18th registration deadline fast approaching, BiE is advising UK citizens abroad to apply for a proxy vote as soon as possible, rather than relying on a postal vote from abroad. Since the 15-year rule was abolished on January 16th, more than 100,000 British citizens have registered to vote, according to official statistics. It is unclear how many were registered before the change in the law.

With an estimated 5.5 million Brits currently living abroad – 1.3 million of whom are in the EU – this could have a significant impact on the electoral landscape, Golding says. But most significantly, the change is creating a feeling of connection and belonging that wasn’t there before.

Nurturing this sense of belonging is one of the main goals of ICE.

With these bridges being built, British in Europe hopes to create a network of support that spans across borders.

“Now we’ve met. We’re going to meet,” said Golding. “We know we’re going to meet again in Berlin in October and then we’ll meet again in the new year in 2025 as well. It means a huge amount because even British in Europe, our steering team, we’ve only met physically three times.”

This opens up the possibility of people sharing their knowledge from country to country, Golding explained.

“There is crossover and the reassurance of having that EU wide view and knowing that you’re not alone and knowing that in this country, we managed to get this solution,” she said. “And then you can go back and say to the authorities in your country, well, in that country they did that – all of that helps. It’s really good.”

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