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ECONOMY

German economy bounces back from slow start to year

Germany has bounced back from an early 2018 slowdown, official data showed Tuesday, as the pace of growth accelerated despite the rumblings of a trade war that could trip up its export-led economy.

German economy bounces back from slow start to year
Photo: DPA

Growth rebounded from its first-quarter slide to reach 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter between April and June, according to preliminary data from federal statistics authority Destatis.

Analysts surveyed by data company Factset had predicted expansion would remain at the pace seen between January and March, when growth slowed to 0.4 percent.

“Contrary to the national soccer team, the German economy did not have a rude awakening at the start of the summer,” ING Diba bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said.

The figures showed Europe's largest economy had grown 2.0 percent year-on-year by the end of the second quarter, a result likely to comfort observers who had feared a slowdown throughout 2018 after the weaker first three months.

Germany also outperformed the average of the 19-nation eurozone, whose growth slowed to 0.3 percent between April and June.

Other major economies Italy and France reported below-average expansion.

Growth was lifted by “positive domestic impulses”, Destatis said, with increased spending on consumption by both households and the state.

A major driver of domestic consumption has been the steady decline in unemployment, with monthly official figures regularly announcing new lows not seen since Germany's 1990 reunification.

Workers in some flagship sectors like metalworking have also begun driving harder wage bargains this year, hinting at an end to the long moderation in salaries that followed the financial crisis.

Investments in equipment and construction, helped along by low interest rates, also swelled in the second three months.

But imports grew faster than exports against a background of trade tensions.

'No all-clear'

The stronger second-quarter growth result was “no all-clear” for the country, said Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) director Martin Wansleben.

“Trade conflicts are increasingly clouding the international environment,” he said — a major risk for an export-heavy economy like Germany's.

US President Donald Trump's direct faceoff with the European Union has cooled in recent weeks after he and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to talk over transatlantic differences.

It is not clear that Brussels will bend to Trump's demands for what he calls “fair” trade with easier access to the EU for American goods, meaning the showdown is only on ice for the moment.

Meanwhile Germany is also vulnerable to knock-on effects from Washington's confrontation with China, one of the country's biggest trading partners.

And Britain's fast-approaching exit from the European Union threatens to add new hurdles to trade with another major economy.

Indicators of business and investor confidence have fallen back in recent months in response to America and its partners raising tariffs on some goods in a tit-for-tat escalation.

And last week harder data on industrial orders and production in June pointed towards a slowdown.

Nevertheless, “with the economy having grown in 34 out of the last 37 quarters, Germany remains on track for a golden decade,” ING analyst Brzeski said.

But trade tensions, geopolitical risks such as the slump in the Turkish lira and politicians' slowness to invest and reform at home mean “looking ahead, the challenges facing the German economy will increase rather than decrease,” he added.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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