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Why Putin’s swearing-in ceremony showed Germany’s key role in Russia relations

When Vladimir Putin was sworn in for his fourth term as Russian President on Monday, two Germans took pride of place at the ceremony. Their link to Russian mineral wealth reveals where Putin sees his priorities for relations with Berlin.

Why Putin’s swearing-in ceremony showed Germany’s key role in Russia relations
Gerhard Schröder shakes Vladimir Putin's hand on Monday. Photo: DPA

Not many people were offered the opportunity to shake Vladimir Putin's hand at his swearing-in ceremony. The leader of the Russian Orthodox church, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, was there to congratulate the Russian President.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also waited to offer his boss his hand. But he had to wait in turn behind the former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder.

In a sign of the closeness between Schröder and Putin, the former Chancellor was placed in the first row at the ceremony, which was attended by some 5,000 people. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had to make do with a seat behind him.

Putin won the Russian election with 77 percent of the vote in the election in March. The OSCE criticized the overly controlled legal and political environment that the vote took pace in. He will not be allowed to run for office again at the next elections in 2024, according to Russian law as it currently stands. 

Putin has now been leader of the world’s largest country for 19 years and political scientists describe the political system he has built as a “one man network” in which people only have the president to thank for their positions of authority.

And right in among the handful of Russians at the top of Moscow's power table is Schröder, who led Germany from 1998 to 2005 as head of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

Schröder built up a close friendship with Putin while he was still in power and took up a job at a subsidiary of Russian state-owned gas company, Gazprom, almost as soon as he was voted out of office. Since 2017 he has been head of the executive board at Rosneft, the state oil company, showing his growing influence in Moscow.

Schröder wasn’t the only prominent German at the swearing-in ceremony, though. Matthias Warnig, a former officer in the feared East German Stasi, waited behind him for the chance to shake Putin by the hand.

Despite his dubious past, Warnig is CEO of Nord Stream AG, the company that is building gas pipelines from Russia to Germany. The first of those pipelines has already been built. but construction on Nord Stream 2 faces stiff resistance from the EU and states in Eastern Europe. East European countries fear the pipeline will make Germany too dependant on Russian gas.

In a further signal on Monday that Moscow sees Germany as its key interlocutor in the west, the Kremlin announced within minutes of the end of the ceremony that Chancellor Angela Merkel would be coming to Moscow on an official visit.

Merkel’s visit comes at a time of high tension between Nato and Russia. Key Nato powers accuse Russia of breaches of international law, including supporting chemicals weapons use in Syria and using a nerve agent to attempt to kill a former spy in the UK.

Putin for his part has charged the US with following an ever more aggressive foreign policy which is aimed at toppling his regime.

The prominent positioning of German guests at Monday's ceremony and Merkel's visit both seem to indicate that Putin sees Germany as the key to breaking the ice on the Siberian frost which has crept over East-West relations.

Germany is after all the only foreign country Russia's strongman knows well as he was stationed near Dresden as a Cold War intelligence agent and speaks excellent German.

But that doesn’t always make relations with Berlin straightforward. While the German public are often more reluctant to follow a hawkish line towards Moscow than the British or US electorates, Schröder has been heavily criticized back home for his cosiness with the Kremlin.

And although Merkel has put more time and patience into maintaining a dialogue with Moscow than any other western leader, she was also the main architect of EU sanctions after Putin annexed the Crimea in 2014.

Moreover, Germany’s new Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has taken a considerably tougher line on Moscow than his predecessors. “Russia is unfortunately acting ever more aggressively,” he said in an interview with Spiegel, before directly blaming Moscow for “the first chemical weapon attack on European soil since the end of the Second World War.”

Like Schröder, Mass is a member of the SPD, the party that invented the concept of Ostpolitik (normalization of relations with the USSR) in the 1960s. Putin might have the ear of some in the older SPD generation, but he still has much to do to convince those in power in Germany to follow suit.

FOR MEMBERS: As a Brit, hearing Germans talk about Russia makes me want to bang my head off a wall

Member comments

  1. As a US citizen I would like to warn the rest of the world that I don’t know if any country has the integrity to be the world’s police, but we certainly do not. It’s fairly obvious we went into Iraq and then Afghanistan in order to flank Iran. Just look at a map and the poor excuses given for doing so, along with the fact we are still there after prosecuting the longest war in our history and no-one seems to care.

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ECONOMY

Schuldenbremse: What is Germany’s debt brake and how does it affect residents?

Nothing sums up Germany's cautious relationship with money quite as well as the debt brake - but this little clause in the constitution has recently caused no end of chaos. Here's what you need to know about the so-called 'Schuldenbremse'.

Schuldenbremse: What is Germany's debt brake and how does it affect residents?

What is the debt brake and why did Germany introduce it?

Known as the Schuldenbremse in German, the debt brake is a cap on government borrowing that’s enshrined in Germany’s constitution. It states that the federal government can only take on a certain amount of new debt in each fiscal year.

This is capped at 0.35 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the amount of money the country produces each year in goods and services. Though GDP varies from year to year, this generally gives the government enough wiggle room to borrow around €9 billion annually.

When it comes to spending on a regional level – i.e. by state governments in Germany – the rules are even stricter. States aren’t allowed to borrow any money to fund their plans and must therefore create balanced budgets that finance spending exclusively through tax income and money from the central government.

But why exactly has Germany decided to tie itself to such strict rules on spending? Well, there are quite a few answers to that. 

Back in 2009, the Grand Coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD), led by Angela Merkel, decided to bring the debt brake into law. At the time, the global economy was struggling to deal with the fallout of the 2008 financial crisis, and Germany was racking up a huge deficit. 

The idea was to bring borrowing back under control as soon as possible and prevent leaving billions of euros in debt for future generations to pay off. It also paid homage to the main edicts of neo-liberalism, creating a streamlined state with little room for generous investments or high social welfare payments. 

Thanks to the ongoing effects of the financial crisis, the debt break only came into force seven years after it was put in the constitution. This means that since 2016, the federal governments have been tied to 0.35 percent cap on borrowing.

That said, there are a few exceptions to the Schuldenbremse: in periods of national emergency, such as natural disasters or pandemics, the government is allowed to put the debt brake to one side. That’s exactly what happened during the Covid pandemic in the years 2020 to 2022, and now it appears it will be put aside for the fourth year in a row. In other words, it has been sidelined for exactly half of the time it has been in place.

READ ALSO: Germany to seek debt rule suspension for 2023

Why has the debt brake been in the news recently?

The debt brake was put in the spotlight in early November when Germany’s Constitutional Court declared tens of billions of earmarked government spending to be ‘unconstitutional’.

The case related to €60 billion of borrowing that was originally intended for tackling the Covid crisis but had later been diverted towards a fund for fighting climate change known as the Climate and Transformation Fund.

In normal cases, moving unspent money around wouldn’t be a problem – but in this case, the specific rules around the debt brake came into play. Utilising the exceptions in the debt brake, the €60 billion was borrowed for the purpose of stabilising the economy during the pandemic – and as such it was only supposed to go towards tackling that emergency.

Wind turbines in Germany

Wind turbines in the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christian Charisius

Beyond this amount, which already represents a huge chunk of the national budget, the court decision also invalidated the Economic Stabilisation Fund (WSF). This fund was also originally set up during the Covid crisis and later repurposed as Olaf Scholz’s ‘Doppelwumms’: a €200 billion pot that paid for the energy price breaks and other relief measures in the wake of the Ukraine war. 

READ ALSO:

Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) announced that the debt brake would be set aside for one more year to allow the government to meet its financial commitments for 2023. However, the budget for next year – and how the significant gaps in funding will be filled – still remain unclear.

The crisis has sparked a major debate among politicians about whether the debt brake is still fit for purpose. 

What do critics of the debt brake say? 

As you might expect, the tight controls on spending aren’t popular with everyone – especially those on the left on the political spectrum. 

Proponents of the debt brake say we should lower the deficit to avoid lumbering future generations with unmanageable debts, but critics of the mechanism make the opposite argument. They say that straightjacketing spending will actually put a strain on future generations as the government will be unable to invest in modern infrastructure and could therefore be hindering growth.

If borrowing is slashed too much and tax revenues don’t increase, projects like the green transformation, upgrading public transport and pushing ahead with digitalisation will inevitably be put on the backburner. The government will be forced to prioritise its urgent day to day spending in the present rather than trying to invest in the future – and it could also be forced to cut vital public services.

Deutsche Bahn train

Deutsche Bahn staff give the sign for an ICE high speed train to leave the main railway station in Stuttgart, southern Germany, on August 11, 2021. Photo by THOMAS KIENZLE / AFP

Other critics argue that the debt brake was appropriate at the time when it was introduced but that times have changed and governments require more flexibility. 

In the early to mid-2000s, Germany was riding high on a booming manufacturing and exports sector fuelled by cheap Russian gas, and had made little attempt to invest in renewable energy. Now, however, with Germany transitioning away from cheap Russian gas while trying to slash the country’s carbon emissions, Germany is faced with numerous expensive challenges at a time when the economy is especially weak – meaning borrowing more or raising more taxes feel like an inevitability. 

READ ALSO: ‘2024 a turning point’: When will Germany’s rail network run on time?

Could the debt brake be reformed in the future?

That’s certainly an idea that’s come from multiple camps – not least Economics Minister Robert Habeck of the Green Party. Speaking at the recent Green Party Conference, Habeck slammed the current rules on borrowing, stating: “With the debt brake as it is, we have voluntarily tied our hands behind our backs and are going into a boxing match.”

According to Habeck, the debt brake should be reformed according to the “green golden rule” to allow borrowing for investments rather than everyday spending. This is an idea that has also been put forward by economists.

Saskia Esken, the co-leader of the SPD, has also spoken out in favour of a reform of the debt brake to avoid putting a drag on growth in the future. 

However, the likelihood of this happening seems low at the moment, even if Greens and SPD politicians – and some members of the CDU – are in favour of it. 

That’s because it takes a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag to change any aspect of the Grundgesetz, or constitution – a much higher bar than the simple majority needed to change a law.

The FDP, who are in the coalition alongside the Greens and SPD, are also fiercely opposed to any reform of the debt brake and want to rein in government spending instead. 

Christian Lindner

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) speaks in the Bundestag. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Messing with this fiscal rule could also prove unpopular: a recent poll found that 61 percent on Germans were opposed to any reform of the debt brake, as opposed to 35 percent who were in favour of it, and 4 percent who didn’t know. 

It means that in the medium term at least, the government may have to take a scalpel to its previous spending plans, cutting spending on investment projects, public services like healthcare and transport and social welfare such as child and unemployment benefits. Or it may find a way to raise some taxes without upsetting the FDP. 

READ ALSO: How Germany’s budget crisis could affect you

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