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German investor confidence hits 5-year low on trade tensions

Investor confidence in Germany tumbled to its lowest level since 2012 in April, a key survey showed Tuesday, as geopolitical concerns and trade tensions weighed on Europe's top economy.

German investor confidence hits 5-year low on trade tensions
Photo: DPA

The ZEW economic institute's monthly barometer tumbled to -8.2 points, a  steep decline from last month's 5.1 points, adding to concerns that Germany's  robust economy could be headed for a slowdown.

“The reasons for this downturn in expectations can mainly be found in the  international trade conflict with the United States and the current situation  in the Syrian war,” ZEW chief Achim Wambach said in a statement.

The drop in investor morale was worse than expected, with analysts polled  by Factset predicting a reading of -1.5 points.

A breakdown of the monthly ZEW poll, which surveyed some 200 analysts and  investors, showed their assessment both of the current economic situation in  Germany and the outlook for the coming months declined.

The last time confidence among financial players fell into the red was in  July 2016, shortly after Britain's shock vote to quit the European Union.

April's reading is also the worst since the eurozone debt crisis sent the ZEW index plunging to -15.7 points in November 2012.

It comes after US President Donald Trump fanned fears of a trade war  between the world's top two economies after threatening punitive duties on  billions of dollars worth of Chinese imports, prompting vows from Beijing to respond in kind.

Capital Economics analyst Jessica Hinds said “the escalation in  protectionist rhetoric” had worried Germany's export-oriented firms.

But she said a slew of “disappointing official data” out of Germany was also to blame for the bleaker mood, suggesting that Europe's powerhouse lost some momentum at the start of the year.

Confidence among German businesses fell back in March, the influential Ifo survey showed last month, while the latest industrial orders and production figures were underwhelming.

But Hinds stressed there was no reason to be overly concerned about the German economy.

“While Germany is vulnerable to increased protectionism, at this stage we doubt that an all-out trade war will materialise,” she said.

“Overall, then, we expect only a modest slowdown and see the German economy expanding by 2.5 percent this year,” she added.

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ENVIRONMENT

Sweden’s SSAB to build €4.5bn green steel plant in Luleå 

The Swedish steel giant SSAB has announced plans to build a new steel plant in Luleå for 52 billion kronor (€4.5 billion), with the new plant expected to produce 2.5 million tons of steel a year from 2028.

Sweden's SSAB to build €4.5bn green steel plant in Luleå 

“The transformation of Luleå is a major step on our journey to fossil-free steel production,” the company’s chief executive, Martin Lindqvist, said in a press release. “We will remove seven percent of Sweden’s carbon dioxide emissions, strengthen our competitiveness and secure jobs with the most cost-effective and sustainable sheet metal production in Europe.”

The new mini-mill, which is expected to start production at the end of 2028 and to hit full capacity in 2029, will include two electric arc furnaces, advanced secondary metallurgy, a direct strip rolling mill to produce SSABs specialty products, and a cold rolling complex to develop premium products for the transport industry.

It will be fed partly from hydrogen reduced iron ore produced at the HYBRIT joint venture in Gälliväre and partly with scrap steel. The company hopes to receive its environemntal permits by the end of 2024.

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The announcement comes just one week after SSAB revealed that it was seeking $500m in funding from the US government to develop a second HYBRIT manufacturing facility, using green hydrogen instead of fossil fuels to produce direct reduced iron and steel.

The company said it also hoped to expand capacity at SSAB’s steel mill in Montpelier, Iowa. 

The two new investment announcements strengthen the company’s claim to be the global pioneer in fossil-free steel.

It produced the world’s first sponge iron made with hydrogen instead of coke at its Hybrit pilot plant in Luleå in 2021. Gälliväre was chosen that same year as the site for the world’s first industrial scale plant using the technology. 

In 2023, SSAB announced it would transform its steel mill in Oxelösund to fossil-free production.

The company’s Raahe mill in Finland, which currently has new most advanced equipment, will be the last of the company’s big plants to shift away from blast furnaces. 

The steel industry currently produces 7 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, and shifting to hydrogen reduced steel and closing blast furnaces will reduce Sweden’s carbon emissions by 10 per cent and Finland’s by 7 per cent.

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