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What to expect after the Italian election: a look at the possible outcomes

Italians are used to living with political uncertainty thanks to the over 60 governments it has piled through since the republic was established after the Second World War.

Published: 1 March 2018 09:25 CET
What to expect after the Italian election: a look at the possible outcomes
A woman looks at the board bearing the parties' logos. Photo: Filippo Monteforte/AFP

The country heads to the polls on March 4th to elect its representatives in the lower house Chamber of Deputies and upper house Senate.

But with a fragmented political landscape and a complicated new electoral law in place that mixes proportional representation with first-past-the-post, the country could wake up on Monday to any one of a variety of scenarios.

Here's a look at what could happen.

A right-wing coalition

“It is unlikely that any of the three main contenders will be able to obtain a majority, but there is only one that can, and it's the right,” says Roberto D'Alimonte, Director of the Political Science Department of Rome's Luiss University.

The right-wing coalition brings together four parties, the biggest of which are Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right Forza Italia (FI) and the far-right League.

An agreement between Berlusconi and League leader Matteo Salvini says that whoever comes first of the two parties will lead the government, should the coalition win a majority.

Banned from public office thanks to a tax fraud investigation, Berlusconi has said in that scenario, and with FI the bigger of the two main parties, he would like to see Antonio Tajani lead the government. However, Tajani has not yet said whether he is ready to give up the presidency of the European Parliament.

If the League comes out on top, Salvini will be premier, assuming that Berlusconi keeps his word and lines up behind him.

READ MORE:


Berlusconi with coalition allies Giorgia Meloni and Salvini. Photo: Livio Anticoli/AFP

A grand coalition

Brussels is betting on a German-style grand coalition between FI and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), both pro-EU parties. Neither Berlusconi nor PD leader Matteo Renzi have dared suggest that they might enter into such an agreement during the election campaign, but it is exactly what happened after the last general election in 2013.

The website Votewatch Europe notes that FI's representatives in the European Parliament have voted with the PD 76 percent of the time, but only 36 percent of the time with the League. However, there is no guarantee that the PD, FI and their Europhile allies — perhaps even boosted by defectors from the League who have little taste for their party's recent nationalist rebrand — will obtain enough votes to gain a majority in the upper and lower houses.

Another hypothesis, and one denied even more vigorously, is a eurosceptic alliance between the League and anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S). But that partnership would also not be guaranteed to pick up enough votes and would be subject to fierce internal opposition from within both parties.

It would also run counter to the conciliatory tone recently offered towards the EU by M5S leader Luigi Di Maio, a shift from the instinctive euroscepticism of party founder Beppe Grillo.

READ MORE:

Is Italy's Five Star Movement still an 'anti-establishment' party?

Photo: Piero Cruciatti/AFP

No parliamentary majority

The last available polls from mid-February gave the right-wing coalition 38 percent of voting intentions (of which 17 percent went to FI and 13 to the League), 28 percent to M5S and 26 percent to the centre-left coalition led by the PD, but with millions still undecided.

If there is no new majority in parliament, Paolo Gentiloni will remain as prime minister. In the meantime President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella will consult the various parliamentary groups to see if there is a figure who can command a majority, and if not, new elections could be called.

Regardless of the outcome, the procedure will take its time. The two chambers will meet for the first time on March 23rd to form groups in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate to elect the president of each house.

READ MORE: Everything you need to know about the Italian election

What you need to know about Italy's 2018 election

By Ljubomir Milasin

For members

POLITICS

How much control does Giorgia Meloni’s government have over Italian media?

There's been renewed debate over the state of press freedom in Italy following warnings that Meloni's administration is seeking "control" of Italy's media. But what's behind these reports?

Published: 9 April 2024 13:13 CEST
How much control does Giorgia Meloni's government have over Italian media?

Press freedom is at the centre of fresh debate in Italy this week after Spanish newspaper El País on Saturday published an article titled “Meloni wants all the media power in Italy.”

The report, which was picked up by Italian newspaper La Repubblica, suggests that the Italian prime minister and her right-wing executive is looking to “monopolise” national print and broadcast outlets

It follows reports in English-language media recently describing how Meloni is accused of trying to stamp her authority on Italian arts and media in what critics call a “purge” of dissenting voices.

Meloni and members of her administration have long faced accusations of trying to silence journalists and intimidate detractors. Media organisations say this often takes the form of high-profile politicians bringing lawsuits against individual journalists, and cite the defamation case brought by Meloni against anti-mafia reporter Roberto Saviano in 2023 as a prime example.

READ ALSO: Six things to know about the state of press freedom in Italy

Discussions over media independence aren’t new in Italy, as the country has consistently ranked poorly in the annual Press Freedom reports by Reporters without Borders in recent years. Italy came in 41st out of 180 in the 2023 ranking, which made it the worst country in western Europe for press freedom.

But what’s behind the recent allegations that the government is trying to exert a more direct influence?

Meloni, Porta a Porta

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Italian national TV show Porta a Porta in Rome on April 4th 2024. Photo by Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP

National television

The article from El País accuses Meloni’s cabinet of effectively controlling Italy’s two biggest national broadcasters: state-owned RAI and commercial broadcaster Mediaset.

While Mediaset and its three main channels (Rete 4, Canale 5 and Italia 1) have long been seen as ‘loyal’ to Meloni’s executive – the network was founded by the late Silvio Berlusconi, whose Forza Italia party continues to be a key member of the ruling coalition – the government’s ties with public broadcaster RAI are more complex.

Unlike state-owned broadcasters in other European countries, RAI is not controlled by a regulatory body but rather by the government itself, which means that the network has always been particularly susceptible to political influences. 

But Meloni’s cabinet is accused of exerting unprecedented power over the broadcaster following the replacement of former top executives with figures considered closer to the government.

Salvini, RAI

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini speaks with Italian journalist Bruno Vespa during the talk show Porta a Porta, broadcast on Italian channel Rai 1. Photo by Andreas SOLARO / AFP

Last May, Carlo Fuortes resigned as RAI’s CEO saying that he couldn’t possibly “accept changes opposed to RAI’s interests”. He was replaced by centrist Roberto Sergio, who in turn appointed Giampaolo Rossi – a “loyalist” of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party – as the network’s general director. 

Sergio and Rossi’s appointment was closely followed by a general management reshuffle which saw figures close to the government occupy key positions within the company. This led to critics and journalists dubbing the network ‘TeleMeloni’.

Print media 

Besides concerns over its sway on Italy’s main broadcast networks, Meloni’s executive is currently under heavy scrutiny following the rumoured takeover of Italy’s AGI news agency by the right-wing Angelucci publishing group. 

The group is headed by Antonio Angelucci, an MP for Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s hard-right League party, and owner of three right-wing newspapers: Il Giornale, Libero and Il Tempo.

News of the potential takeover from Angelucci sparked a series of strikes and demonstrations from the news agency’s journalists in recent weeks, with reporters raising concerns over the independence and autonomy of journalists in the event of an ownership change.

The leader of the centre-left Democratic Party Elly Schlein weighed in on the matter last week, saying that the sale of Italy’s second-largest news agency to a ruling coalition MP would be “inadmissible”.

Further debate over press freedom in the country emerged in early March after three journalists from the left-wing Domani newspaper were accused of illegally accessing and publishing private data regarding a number of high-profile people, including Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, and the late Silvio Berlusconi’s girlfriend. 

The newspaper has so far condemned the investigation, saying it is “a warning to Domani and all journalists” and a further threat to media independence in a country ranked amongst the worst in Europe for press freedom.

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