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ELECTIONS

Austria set to elect youngest EU leader in right-wing push

Austrians were voting on Sunday in a snap election tipped to see conservative Sebastian Kurz, 31, become the EU's youngest leader and form an alliance with the far-right, in the bloc's latest populist test.

Austria set to elect youngest EU leader in right-wing push
Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs and the chairman of Austria's People's Party (OeVP), Sebastian Kurz. Photo: Joe Klamer/AFP

A rightward shift in the wealthy European Union member of 8.75 million people would be a fresh headache for Brussels as it struggles with Britain's decision to leave and the rise of nationalists in Germany, Hungary, Poland and elsewhere.

But all signs indicate that Austrians, fed up with a record influx of asylum-seekers, want to swap the gridlocked centrist rule for a more hardline government for the first time in a decade.

The People's Party (OeVP), rebranded by “whizz-kid” Kurz as a “movement”, is forecast to reap more than 30 percent of the vote with pledges to go tough on migrants and easy on taxes.

The eurosceptic Freedom Party (FPOe) is battling for second place with the beleaguered Social Democrats (SPOe) of incumbent Chancellor Christian Kern.

Kurz – who as new OeVP leader forced the snap vote in May by ending the coalition with Kern – has yanked his party to the right and is expected to seek a coalition with the far-right.

Founded by ex-Nazis in the 1950s, the FPOe almost won the presidency last year and topped opinion polls in the midst of Europe's migrant crisis.

Then Kurz came along and stole votes with his hardline OeVP makeover, prompting FPOe chief Heinz-Christian Strache to call him an “imposter”.

But Austrian media reported on Sunday that both parties were already involved in behind-the-scene talks, with the OeVP putting a “generous offer” on the table.

'Most important crossroads'

Meanwhile, the once-mighty SPOe could be flushed into opposition after their promising campaign suffered blunders and scandals.

Open dislike between ex-railway chief Kern, 51, and Kurz also makes any new attempt at ruling together seem unlikely.

But for some voters, the prospect of a far-right alliance is problematic.

“I'm not sure that we really need big changes,” Tina Ernest told AFP at a Vienna polling station Sunday.

“I would say that in Austria we still live in paradise.”

Kern, in office since last May, issued a final warning Saturday against a rightwing alliance, saying “Austria was at the most important crossroads in decades”.

The OeVP and FPOe already shared power between 2000 and 2007. At the time the alliance with the far-right – then led by the late, SS-admiring Joerg Haider – ostracised Austria.

But there would not be the same backlash now owing to the “normalisation of the far-right in Europe since then,” said expert Pepijn Bergsen at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

An 'Austria first' policy

Polls opened at 0400 GMT and close at 1500 GMT, with first estimates expected shortly afterwards.

Some 6.4 million people are eligible to vote in the closely-watched ballot which is expected to be a tight race.

“I'm feeling optimistic,” OeVP party volunteer Michael Brandstetter told AFP in Vienna ahead of the vote.

“The way Kurz goes about things is what has captured people's minds”.

For his turquoise movement, Kurz drew young candidates from outside politics and vowed to put “Austrians first” again.

As foreign minister, Kurz claims credit for closing the Balkan migrant trail in 2016, earning him praise at home.

Pushing far-right themes, he wants to cut benefits for all foreigners, slash Austria's red tape and keep the EU out of national affairs.

Experts say a rightwing government could turn Austria into a tricky partner for the bloc.

Vienna will hold the EU's presidency in the second half of 2018, just when Brussels wants to conclude Brexit talks.

“The Freedom Party as a government partner will not make a good impression in Europe (and) Kurz is aware of that,” commented Der Standard newspaper in its weekend edition.

“But the question is whether there is any getting around Strache after this election.”

By Nina Lamparski

EUROPEAN UNION

Norway flirts with the idea of a ‘mini Brexit’ in election campaign

On paper, Norway's election on Monday looks like it could cool Oslo's relationship with the European Union but analysts say that appearances may be deceiving.

Norway flirts with the idea of a 'mini Brexit' in election campaign
The Centre Party's leader Slagsvold Vedum has called for Norway's relationship with the European Union to be renegotiated. Photo: Gorm Kallestad / NTB / AFP

After eight years of a pro-European centre-right government, polls suggest the Scandinavian country is headed for a change of administration.

A left-green coalition in some shape or form is expected to emerge victorious, with the main opposition Labour Party relying on the backing of several eurosceptic parties to obtain a majority in parliament.

In its remote corner of Europe, Norway is not a member of the EU but it is closely linked to the bloc through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement.

The deal gives Norway access to the common market in exchange for the adoption of most European directives.

Both the Centre Party and the Socialist Left — the Labour Party’s closest allies, which together have around 20 percent of voter support — have called for the marriage of convenience to be dissolved.

“The problem with the agreement we have today is that we gradually transfer more and more power from the Storting (Norway’s parliament), from Norwegian lawmakers to the bureaucrats in Brussels who are not accountable,” Centre Party leader Trygve Slagsvold Vedum said in a recent televised debate.

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Defending the interests of its rural base, the Centre Party wants to replace the EEA with trade and cooperation agreements.

However, Labour leader Jonas Gahr Store, who is expected to become the next prime minister, does not want to jeopardise the country’s ties to the EU, by far Norway’s biggest trading partner.

“If I go to my wife and say ‘Look, we’ve been married for years and things are pretty good, but now I want to look around to see if there are any other options out there’… Nobody (in Brussels) is going to pick up the phone” and be willing to renegotiate the terms, Gahr Store said in the same debate.

Running with the same metaphor, Slagsvold Vedum snapped back: “If your wife were riding roughshod over you every day, maybe you would react.”

EU a ‘tough negotiating partner’

Initially, Brexit gave Norwegian eurosceptics a whiff of hope. But the difficulties in untangling British-EU ties put a damper on things.

“In Norway, we saw that the EU is a very tough negotiating partner and even a big country like Britain did not manage to win very much in its negotiations,” said Ulf Sverdrup, director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.

While Norwegians have rejected EU membership twice, in referendums in 1972 and 1994, a majority are in favour of the current EEA agreement.

During the election campaign, the EU issue has gradually been pushed to the back burner as the Centre Party — which briefly led in the polls — has seen its support deflate.

The nature of Norway’s relationship to the bloc will depend on the distribution of seats in parliament, but experts generally agree that little is likely to change.

“The Labour Party will surely be firm about the need to maintain the EEA agreement,” said Johannes Bergh, political scientist at the Institute for Social Research, “even if that means making concessions to the other parties in other areas”.

Closer cooperation over climate?

It’s possible that common issues, like the fight against climate change, could in fact bring Norway and the EU even closer.

“Cooperation with the EU will very likely become stronger because of the climate issue” which “could become a source of friction” within the next coalition, Sverdrup suggested.

“Even though the past 25 years have been a period of increasingly close cooperation, and though we can therefore expect that it will probably continue, there are still question marks” surrounding Norway’s future ties to the EU, he said.

These likely include the inclusion and strength of eurosceptics within the future government as well as the ability of coalition partners to agree on all EU-related issues.

Meanwhile, Brussels is looking on cautiously. The EEA agreement is “fundamental” for relations between the EU and its
partners Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, according to EU spokesman Peter Stano.

But when it comes to the rest, “we do not speculate on possible election outcomes nor do we comment on different party positions.”

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