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POLITICS

The Merkel model – or how to keep succeeding in German politics

After Sunday's election victory, Angela Merkel is set to become German Chancellor for a fourth time, putting her on a par with her mentor Helmut Kohl. What explains her endurance?

The Merkel model - or how to keep succeeding in German politics
Angela Merkel. Photo: DPA

When Angela Merkel first became Chancellor of Germany in 2005, she was a virtual unknown. Critics were sceptical about her staying power. There were confident predictions that she wouldn’t see out the 100-day honeymoon period traditionally enjoyed by a new incumbent.

Now, 12 years on, Merkel is undoubtedly the most powerful woman in the world and a symbol of continuity both at home and abroad. Yet remarkably little is known about her, what drives her and what explains her extraordinary resilience. So who is Angela Merkel and what explains her dominance of Germany’s millennial years?

Within her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merkel’s rise to political prominence was aided by two factors: she was both fiercely competent and inconspicuous. She was underestimated, even patronised, by party colleagues. Helmut Kohl, the long-serving CDU prime minister who presided over German unification, referred to her as “the girl” (das Mädchen). He never seriously rated her as a challenger for his role.

When Kohl became embroiled in a party funding scandal it was Merkel who represented the new face of the CDU, free of the taint of past party sleaze. Kohl apparently never forgave her for usurping him.

Photo: DPA

The appeal of the ordinary

Even after three terms in office and after testing the forbearance of the German public with her open doors asylum policy, Merkel remains extraordinarily popular with the German public. Significantly, her popularity extends across all parties.

Part of her enduring appeal lies in her unobtrusiveness. For a politician, she is, well, rather ordinary. Merkel has never felt the need to validate herself through a polished public image. She famously wears the same jacket in a dizzying array of colours, because it’s easier than selecting new styles for every public appearance. Her groundedness and indifference to the trappings of the political high life have earned widespread respect.

Although entitled to live in a fine official residence at the Brandenburg Gate, she prefers to stay in a small flat she shares with her husband. When she has time, she cooks her own food. A keen football fan, the photos of her and president Joachim Gauck celebrating in the German national squad’s dressing room after their 2014 World Cup win look natural and convincing.

In her understated way, Merkel conveys an image of a woman who can’t be bought; who somehow remains outside the privileged elite. Both endearing and slightly demeaning, her nickname of “Mutti” (Mum) combines common responses to this eastern-born outsider and cements a sense of trustworthiness that serves her well with the voters.

Patience and pragmatism

A large part of Merkel’s success lies in her consummate mastery of the German political system. Quite simply, she has what it takes to win in German politics. She is cautious, pragmatic, strategic, patient, and is imbued with the traditional Christian Democratic certainty that the integration of interests provides a sound basis for governance. She is an outstanding mediator. At times these attributes have infuriated supporters and critics alike, but they have worked for her.

Merkel has a keen instinct for shifts in public opinion and is swift to occupy new ground. This maddens the opposition SPD, which often complains that the union parties are “stealing their clothes”, making it difficult for them to develop a distinctive policy platform.

Just before the dissolution of parliament ahead of the 2017 election, Merkel engineered the passage of a popular bill legalising gay marriage. Although it went against majority opinion within her own party, she didn’t want the SPD or the Green Party to be able to capitalise on the issue in the election campaign.

Photo: DPA

Merkel is frequently criticised for “de-politicising” government. She tends to a technocratic, pragmatic approach and often sits on the fence. After three terms in office there are concerns that this “Merkel model” of governance is smothering the vigorous plural exchanges that ought to characterise democratic interaction between the mainstream parties.

In particular, critics fear that Merkel’s grand coalition (where government power is shared between the leading party and the main party of opposition) has driven out the democratic principle of alternation of government (where there is a real potential for elections to replace one government party with another). With no mainstream opposition to the existing government, voters are drawn to cast a protest vote for radical parties, such as right-wing populists AfD. Moreover, this middle-of-the-road approach blocks reform of outdated policies.

While these are valid arguments, Merkel’s depoliticised approach is in fact a logical strategy for sustained leadership in the German political system. In order to pass major domestic legislation in Germany, a government has to get a bill past not only the parliament, in which it has a majority, but also the second legislature, the Bundesrat, where the federal government majority is not replicated. In practice, every government has to “collude” with opposition forces on a routine basis if it is to be successful.

The “boring” election campaigns so common in German politics are also a function of the system. Until the votes have been cast and the parliamentary arithmetic is known, neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD can know for sure how it might work with the other parties in parliament to forge a majority coalition government. The election is only the beginning.

Many of the details of the new chancellor’s programme will not be settled until the rounds of coalition negotiations that take place immediately afterwards. It makes sense, then, for the two main parties to avoid specifics on their policy platforms. Keeping their powder dry, though, can make the public feel that their main concerns are not being adequately addressed.

Photo: DPA

Recently, media reports have highlighted unprecedented levels of rage and polarisation in post-war German opinion. The anti-immigrant Pegida movement and the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) have voiced views that only a few years ago would have been considered completely unacceptable in public discourse. This has carried over into society, where public opinion is hardening against asylum seekers.

Some argue that this new German anger can’t be dismissed simply as a protest vote for the AfD, but may indicate a more profound disaffection with the Merkel model. But a quick glance at the world outside and the alternative leadership at home seems to have persuaded most voters that this was not the time to throw their toys out of the pram.

The Merkel decade has quietly transformed Germany into a world power while protecting the economy from the worst of the fallout from the eurozone crisis. Throughout the postwar period, German voters have shown a strong inclination for predictability: for “the devil they know”. Perhaps this more than anything explains why Merkel has secured one more term as Chancellor.

This article was written by Patricia Hogwood, an academic at the University of Westminster, and first appeared in the Conversation.

TERRORISM

How does Germany warn people about the threat of terrorist attacks?

Following the recent terrorist attack in Moscow, France has shifted onto the highest possible alert level for terrorist threats. Why doesn't Germany use a similar system - and how does it alert people instead?

How does Germany warn people about the threat of terrorist attacks?

Since the brutal terrorist attack on a Berlin Christmas Market back in December 2016, fears of Islamist terror seem to have receded into the background – through far-right terror has remained prevalent.

But the recent terror attack on a concert hall in Moscow, which has been attributed to a branch of IS, has heightened fears of a resurgence of Islamist violence.

In contrast to neighbouring countries, Germany doesn’t use a national terror alert system to ‘grade’ the threat of terror – but it does have another system for protecting its population and warning people. 

Here’s what you need to know about Germany’s approach to tracking threats of terrorism. 

How does Germany manage the threat of terror? 

According to the Interior Ministry, rather than relying on a system of color-coded alert levels, German security authorities take a more decentralised approach.

The Federal Criminal Police Office regularly conducts assessments of terrorist threats, which are then shared with the leaders of the federal states. If there’s a significant increase in the overall risk assessment or a specific threat emerges, the government puts “appropriate security measures” in place, the Interior Ministry states.

Unlike centralised systems in countries like France, where national threat levels are analysed and shared with the public, security responsibilities in Germany are largely decentralised, resting with individual states.

Why doesn’t Germany use terror alert levels?

When it comes to using national terror alerts to alert citizens, the Interior Ministry remains sceptical, arguing that the threat level can vary significantly between regions and even within cities.

According to the Ministry, having uniform alert levels nationwide might give the false impression that the danger is uniform everywhere, which would lead to higher levels of panic and uncertainty among citizens. 

READ ALSO: How prepared is Germany in the event of a military attack?

While alert levels could theoretically serve as a means to reach the population, ARD terrorism expert Michael Götschenberg points out that their effectiveness diminishes over time. People tend to become desensitised to frequent high alert levels, which causes people to ‘switch off’ and ultimately ignore potential threats.

Mourner at Breitscheidplatz in Berlin

A man stands in front of the memorial to the victims of the Islamist terrorist attack on Breitscheidplatz in December 2026. The Christmas Market attack was the last major Islamist attack in Germany. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christoph Soeder

One of the main factors that renders colour-coded alerts less useful is the fact that “the levels are not linked to specific rules of behaviour for the population”, Götschenberg told Tagesschau.

Austria, for example, raised its alert level last November but emphasised that the public didn’t need to alter their behaviour in any way. This reflects authorities’ belief that the best way to fight terrorism is for the population to show resilience and refuse to give into fear.

How high is the threat of terror attacks in Germany?

In the aftermath of the terrorist attack in Moscow, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) has described the current threat of Islamist terror as “acute”.

However, the attack has not significantly changed the authorities’ perceptions of the situation. In fact, the threat was defined as acute before the latest attacks and remains so afterwards.

Several other countries, including the UK and the US, have already put out warnings for potential terrorist attacks to citizens who are considering travelling to Germany. In the UK, for example, the government cites recent attacks such as the shootings in Hanau shisha bars back in 2020 and the knife attack in Dresden the same year.

“Terrorists are very likely to try and carry out attacks in Germany,” states the official government advice, which adds that restaurants, markets, shopping centres and places of worship could be chosen for potential attacks. 

So, how will the public be warned if a plans for a specific attack become known? As well as offering general information about terrorist threat levels, the government will also release specifics that it feels are necessary for the public safety.

For example, when the authorities suspected an attack was being planned in the area around Cologne cathedral ahead of Christmas last year, warnings were sent out to residents of the city. 

On Tuesday, Faeser also revealed that she would put additional border controls in place during the European Football Championships in June and July this year. 

READ ALSO: Germany announces border controls for European Football Championship

The focus will be on protecting the country from Islamists, political extremists and other violent criminals during the competition.

“We are keeping an eye on the current threats,” Faeser told the regional Rheinische Post. 

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