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POPULATION

What you need to know about France’s rising population

By the year 2050 France will be home to millions more people, but certain areas of the country will see population grow more than others. Here's a look at the key points.

Published: 26 June 2017 11:51 CEST
What you need to know about France’s rising population
Photo: AFP

On January 1st 2017, France had a population of 66.9 million, an all-time high. 

New data by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) says France’s population is predicted to increase to 74 million by 2050. 

We've picked out some key points from the INSEE study to give an idea of what France's growing population will look like in the future.

Regional differences

INSEE predicts the population will rise across France, but growth won't be even. The biggest rises in population will be in the Pays de la Loire region of western France (see chart below, courtesy of Ouest France) and the central region of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.

The Grand Est region of eastern France, which includes the old regions of Alsace, Lorraine and Champagne-Ardennes will see the smallest increase in population over the coming years – only 0.7 percent according to INSEE, followed by Normandy in the north, where growth will be only slightly higher.

The main reasons for the lack of growth in the Grand Est region according to INSEE is that there will be more deaths, especially in the years 2040 to 2050, less immigration to the region, there are fewer women meaning the birth rate will be lower and the area lacks attractiveness.

The greater Paris region of Ile-de-France will remain the country's most populated region and will be home to 13.2 million inhabitants by 2050 – up from 12 million in 2013. Auvergne-Rhône -Alpes will be the second most populated region with 9.5 million inhabitants in 2050 – up from 7.8 million.

An aging population

By 2050, France will have 20 million people aged 65-years-old or more. That's 8.6 million more than in 2013.

Interestingly for most regions in France deaths will outnumber births by 2050.

That's because baby boomers born between 1945 and 1975 will have reached old age. Among the elderly population the number of people aged over 75 will see a particularly large rise, numbering 12.9 million by 2050 – some 16.4% of the population.

Again the aging of the population won't be the same across all regions. INSEE predicts the trend will be more marked in the regions of Burgundy-Franche-Comté, Grand-Est and Normandie.

READ ALSO:

Why France might just be the best country in the world to grow old in

The working population

But 2050 France will see a drop of 588,000 people in the size of its working population, basically those aged of 20 to 64.

So by 2050 the country's working population would only represent half of the country's overall population.

Again the reduction in the working population will be greater in the Grand Est region of eastern France and Normandy in the north.

Youth population remains stable

Between now and 2050, the number of people under-20 in France is expected to remain stable.

In 2050, France will have only 265,000 more young people than in 2013. Those under 20 would then represent 22.3 percent of the population, that's 2.3 percentage points less than in 2013,” says INSEE. This decrease would concern all regions.

How do we explain the trend?

There are numerous reasons for the projected rise in France's population including immigration – net migration is currently 70,000 a year.

And people in France are living longer than ever before. By 2050 average life-expectancy for women will be 90.3 in France compared to 85 in 2013, while for men it will be 86.8 years compared to 78.7 in 2013.

But also France has one of the highest fertility rates in Europe.

Earlier this year The Local reported that in 2015, France had the highest birth rate in Europe at 1.96 children per woman, although this was down from the symbolic rate of 2 children per mother in 2014.

by Jessie Williams

POPULATION

Denmark expects twice as many people over 80 years old in 2050

More than twice as many people in Denmark will be over 80 years old in 2050 compared to the number of senior citizens in the country today.

Published: 20 May 2021 16:32 CEST
Denmark expects twice as many people over 80 years old in 2050
By 2050, a much larger proportion of Denmark's population will be over 80 years old. File photo: Henning Bagger/Ritzau Scanpix

A new population projection from national agency Statistics Denmark predicts 431,000 people of the age of 80 in Denmark in 2030.

That will increase to 617,000 by 2050, around 10 percent of the population.

Today, Denmark has around 282,000 over-80s in its population, which is around 5 percent of the population.

A large increase in the number of elderly persons is expected to present Denmark’s social welfare system with economic challenges, with larger numbers likely to need care and practical help.

In its report, Statistics Denmark writes that the “greatest (population) growth going forward is expected to take place amongst the oldest age groups”.

Other age groups are not expected to greatly change their proportion of the population during the period covered by the projection, the agency writes.

The overall population is expected to grow by 0.4 percent by 2028. After that, growth will plateau, giving a growth of 0.12 percent in 2050. It is then forecast to increase again, reaching 0.2 percent in 2060.

Major factors affecting the population size – birth rates, death rates and immigration – are all predicted to vary at different times throughout the period.

But Statistics Denmark writes that it expects a deficit in the number of births between 2044 and 2053.

The 2021 projection does not take into account the potential long-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the population. That is because “no sufficient basis of knowledge and experience is yet available,” the statistics bureau writes.

However, the agency noted that the biggest impact of the pandemic on population size in 2020 was its restrictive effect on immigration and emigration.

READ ALSO: Denmark’s immigration and emigration is mostly to and from Western countries

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