SHARE
COPY LINK

ECONOMY

‘Jubilant’ German businesses are brimming with confidence like never before

German business confidence soared to a "jubilant" new high in June, having already reached a quarter-century peak the previous month, a survey said Monday.

'Jubilant' German businesses are brimming with confidence like never before
A Porsche worker assembles part of a 911 Carrera Cabriolet. Photo: DPA

The closely-watched Ifo business confidence index set a new record of 115.1 points, defying expectations of analysts of a slight decline after it reached 114.6 in May, the highest since 1991.

The Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research calculates the score from a survey of 7,000 companies, who are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months.

READ ALSO: These are the German regions where the economy is really booming

Analysts surveyed by financial services provider Factset had expected 114.4 points in June.

The strong optimism comes despite challenges for Europe's top exporters, from US President Donald Trump's “America First” stance on trade to Britain's looming exit from the European Union.

“Sentiment among German businesses is jubilant,” said Ifo president Clemens Fuest in a statement.

“Companies were significantly more satisfied with their current business situation this month. They also expect business to improve.”

The German economy expanded by 0.6 percent in the first quarter, and the government expects growth to hit 1.5 percent for the full year, while several economists have predicted it would reach or top last year's level of 1.8 percent.

Fuest said that “Germany's economy is performing very strongly. In manufacturing, the index rose slightly. Assessments of the current business situation remained unchanged at a very high level.”

The optimism was shared by manufacturers — who planned to ramp up production — wholesalers and retailers, Ifo said, pointing to a lower index only in construction where the assessments of current and future business nevertheless remained at a high level.

For members

ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

SHOW COMMENTS