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ELECTION

Analysis: France is now in uncharted territory and the journey is just beginning

France moved into new territory on Sunday by voting for Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron to face each other in a second round duel in two weeks time, when more history will be made. Professor Paul Smith says it's only the first stage of a new journey.

Analysis: France is now in uncharted territory and the journey is just beginning
Photo: AFP

In the end, the sun came out and the French, despite the predictions, turned out in good numbers (around 77%) to vote in the first round of the presidential election. What is more, they voted into first place, not Marine Le Pen, but Emmanuel Macron, by around 24% to a shade under 22% (at the time of writing the final scores have not been announced).

For Le Pen, there has been no Trump effect, but rather a Wilders effect: the far-right hasn’t done as well as expected. Le Pen has often complained that opinion polls are inaccurate and misrepresent her score, but not in the way she thought. And suggestions that she might even get as high as 30% (Russian opinion polls?) have proved to be utterly unfounded.

While the 23rd April 2017 will go down as a historic moment for the French far-right, for Le Pen and within the FN, it’s a disappointment.

She wanted to go into the second round in pole position, using that as her platform to denounce ‘the system’ for preventing the ‘real’ voice of the people from being heard, even though she knew that she had little chance of beating either Macron or the right-wing candidate, Francois Fillon. Instead she has herself only seen off Fillon by 2%.

Macron’s achievement is quite something. He has not only won the first round, but also withstood last-minute surges from Fillon and the far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both men appeared really to believe they would be in the second round, but then no candidate admits defeat before the fact (except Benoit Hamon, that is).

Throughout the last week of the campaign, the pro-Fillon Le Figaro banged out the message for right-wing voters who might have been thinking of a tactical vote for Macron. But to no real effect. By the end of Sunday evening, Fillon was just under 20% of the vote and Melenchon just over 19%.

Benoit Hamon, the Socialist party candidate, finished a distant fifth, with less than 7%, leaving the party with a major headache in the lead up to June’s general elections.

Do they try to find some sort of alliance with Melenchon? Will he even be looking for that? Or does the PS rally around another figure (maybe prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve) in a broad pro-Macron coalition (if he wins)? On Sunday evening, Melenchon was in no mood to hint at how he envisaged the course of events over the next few weeks.

Hamon was quick to endorse Macron for the second round and Filon followed suit. This matters.

Candidates who are eliminated in the first round do not have to call on their electors to vote for one candidate or another in the second round.

They may even seek to play a waiting game and to cut a deal with one or other of the candidates ahead of the second round. Francois Fillon, to his credit, made an immediate and unequivocal call to his supporters to vote for Macron and against Le Pen.

The gesture was dignified, but also opens the way for dialogue between the Republicans and Macron for the future. Not all right-wingers are entirely happy with Fillon’s rapid declaration – the acting chair of the party, Laurent Wauquiez was reluctant to commit himself – but most of the party’s leading figures have echoed Fillon.

Whether Fillon’s electors will follow suit remains open to doubt. A large part of the Catholic right, those who made up the numbers who appeared in the Place du Trocadero in early March to support Fillon, will find it difficult. Similarly, a large slice of Melenchon’s supporters, who see Macron as one of the primary advocates of the ‘uberisation’ of the French economy, will find Le Pen’s rhetoric more appealing and cast a vote for her to teach ‘les elites’ a lesson, if they vote at all.

Macron still has to win the election on May 7th. The opinion polls that have explored the possibility of a Macron-Le Pen run-off have generally seen this going 60-40 in his favour (as opposed to 55-45 in a Fillon-Le Pen contest).

That would be a good outcome, but of course, Macron will want to limit Le Pen as far as possible, not just to beat her fair and square, but also to afford himself leverage in future negotiations between his own En Marche! movement and the other parties.

We always knew that this election would take France into uncharted political waters. This is only the first stage of the process, but it is a fundamental one.

Paul Smith is an Associate Professor in French and Francophone studies at the University of Nottingham in the UK.

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ELECTION

German Greens’ chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news

With Germany's Green party leading the polls ahead of September's general elections, the ecologists' would-be successor to Angela Merkel has become increasingly targeted by internet trolls and fake news in recent weeks.

German Greens' chancellor candidate Baerbock targeted by fake news
The Greens chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock on April 26th. Photo: DPA

From wild claims about CO2-emitting cats and dogs to George Soros photo collages, 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock has been the subject of a dizzying array of fake news, conspiracy theories and online attacks since she was announced as the Greens’ chancellor candidate in mid-April.

The latest polls have the Greens either ahead of or level with Merkel’s ruling conservatives, as the once fringe party further establishes itself as a leading electoral force in Europe’s biggest economy.

Baerbock herself also consistently polls higher than her conservative and centre-left rivals in the race to succeed Merkel, who will leave office after 16 years this autumn.

Yet her popularity has also brought about unwanted attention and a glut of fake news stories aimed at discrediting Baerbock as she bids to become Germany’s first Green chancellor.

READ ALSO:

False claims

Among the false stories circulating about Baerbock is the bizarre claim that she wants to ban household pets in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Another fake story firmly denied by the party claimed that she defied rules on mask-wearing and social-distancing by embracing colleagues upon her nomination earlier this month.

Baerbock has also been presented as a “model student” of Hungarian billionaire George Soros – a hate figure for the European far-right and anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists – in a mocked-up social media graphic shared among others by a far-right MP.

More serious online attacks include a purported photo of Baerbock which in fact shows a similar-looking naked model.

The Greens’ campaign manager Michael Kellner said that the attempts to discredit Baerbock had “taken on a new dimension”, that “women are targeted more heavily by online attacks than men, and that is also true of our candidate”.

Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock earlier this month. Photo: DPA

Other false claims about the party include reports of a proposed ban on barbecues, as well as plans to disarm the police and enforce the teaching of the Quran in schools.

While such reports are patently absurd, they are potentially damaging to Baerbock and her party as they bid to spring a surprise victory in September.

“She has a very real chance, but the coming weeks are going to be very important because Baerbock’s public image is still taking shape,” Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University told AFP.

In a bid to fight back against the flood of false information, the party has launched a new “online fire service” to report fake news stories.

READ ALSO: Greens become ‘most popular political party’ in Germany

Russian disinformation

Yet stemming the tide is no easy job, with many of those who peddle disinformation now using private messaging services such as WhatsApp and Telegram rather than public platforms such as Facebook.

The pandemic and ongoing restrictions on public life will also make it harder for the campaign to push through their own narratives at public events.

Miro Dittrich of Germany’s Amadeu-Antonio anti-racism foundation claims that lockdown has “played a role” in the spread of fake news.

“People are isolated from their social environment and are spending a lot more time online,” he said.

Another factor is Russia, which has made Germany a primary target of its efforts to spread disinformation in Europe.

According to the European anti-disinformation platform EUvsDisinfo, Germany has been the target of 700 Russian disinformation cases since 2015, compared to 300 aimed at France and 170 at Italy.

As an outspoken critic of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, Baerbock may well become a target of such attacks during the election campaign.

By Mathieu FOULKES

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