SHARE
COPY LINK

TRADE

Germany overtakes China as world’s richest exporter

According to a respected economic think tank, Germany broke its own trade surplus record in 2016 - in stark contrast to the USA, which is running a huge deficit.

Germany overtakes China as world's richest exporter
VW cars at Bremerhaven. Photo: DPA

“Germany’s trade balance shows an estimated plus of $297 billion,” Christian Grimme of the Ifo Institute told Reuters on Monday.

That number shows that Germany made almost $300 billion more from selling goods and services to other countries than it spent on imports during 2016, giving it a higher trade surplus than China.

The Asian giant came second on the Munich-based think tank’s list, recording a balance of trade of $245 billion. Japan had the third highest trade surplus.

In 2015, China had the highest balance of trade, followed by Germany in second.

According to the Ifo Institute, exports of goods such as cars and chemicals had a particular impact on the German trade surplus.

“Goods exports alone contributed $255 billion to the German trade surplus up until November,” said Grimme.

The Ifo report also estimates that the USA had the largest trade deficit in the world in 2016, spending $478 billion more on imports than it earned from exports.

“That means that the USA is buying much more than it is producing and is going into debt abroad,” said Grimme.

The Ministry for Economic Affairs states that 44 percent of Germany’s budget surplus is attributable to sales to the USA and Great Britain.

1.6 million German jobs threatened by trade war with US

But the potential for an escalating trade war with the US could put the dampers on Germany’s export success, leading economic experts have warned.

“We are facing a trade war with the USA – we must face the hard reality,” Marcel Fratzscher president of economic think tank DIW told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) on Sunday.

“If Donald Trump means what he says, that’ll have a negative effect of global wealth.”

The Ifo Institute has also warned that millions of German jobs could be threatened by a Trump presidency.

“In total 1.6 million German jobs would be in danger if economic relations with the USA were taken down to zero,” Ifo president Clemens Fuest told FAZ.

The institute claimed that a million positions at German companies which sell to the USA would go, plus 600,000 jobs at US companies with offices in Germany.

“If there were an escalation with counter measures from Europe, jobs at American companies in Germany would also be in danger,” said Fuest.

The new US President has already threatened to impose sanctions on Germany’s beloved car industry, saying he is prepared to impose tariffs on luxury car maker BMW if it continues construction of a planned factory in Mexico, rather than the US.

Dennis Snower president of the Institute for the World Economy in Kiel said that the situation reminds him of the interwar period when trade conflicts threatened to bring down the global economy.

“Everyone has taken their lessons from that bitter experience – even Donald Trump. We live in a time when the continuation of the liberal world order is in question.”

For members

ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

SHOW COMMENTS