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POLITICS

Six questions (and answers) after the Italian referendum

Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi announced he would resign after his proposed constitutional reforms were overwhelmingly rejected in a referendum. If you're wondering why that's such a big deal, what's next for Italy and what this all means for Europe, read on.

Six questions (and answers) after the Italian referendum
Supporters of the No campaign celebrate their referendum victory in Rome. Photo: AFP

1. Is the result a shock?

Yes and no. Final opinion polls put the No camp convincingly ahead, but in the end they won with just shy of a 20-point lead, compared to the five point lead most pollsters had predicted.

James Newall, an expert in Italian politics and professor at the UK's University of Salford, says this wide margin comes as a surprise to most observers, who were bracing themselves for a much closer vote. 

As to why the No campaign won, a combination of social, economic and political factors were at play.

“The win goes beyond anti-establishment sentiment – though that's a big part of it,” explained Newall. “Some people voted on the specific proposals, others as a protest against social and economic malaise, and crucially some voted against Renzi because he framed it as a referendum on his performance.”

READ MORE: Why Italy said 'no' to Renzi's reforms

2. What’s the next step for Italy?

Renzi announced his intention to resign – a promise he'd made early on in the campaign – an hour after polls closed, so Italy is set to get a new government, which will be tasked with a few key decisions.

Italy's political future is in the hands of President Sergio Mattarella, who spent several hours in talks with Renzi this morning and will have four options once Renzi formally tenders his resignation (which should happen after a Monday evening cabinet meeting). 

He can refuse Renzi's resignation, invite Renzi or someone else (top picks are Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan or Culture Minister Dario Franceschini) to form a new government, or create a technocratic government with a limited mandate.

Snap elections – which have been called for by Five Star Movement leader Beppe Grillo and far-right Northern League leader Matteo Salvini – don't appear to be on the cards.

That would require Mattarella to dissolve the chamber of parliament, which Newall says would bring “chaos”, due to the fact that the current electoral law was designed to be used in tandem with the proposed constitutional reforms. Instead, we can expect the new government to pass a financial law and then update the electoral system ready for the next general election, which will probably be held in early 2018.

READ MORE: What should we expect after Sunday's referendum?

3. Is the referendum result good news for the Five Star Movement – and what about the other ‘No’ campaigners?

“Everyone sees what they want to see in the result,” Franco Pavoncello, president of Rome's John Cabot University, said.

“The Five Star Movement feel like they've won, while Forza Italia thinks it has both stopped Renzi and limited the possibility of the M5S coming to power.”

The Five Star Movement (M5S), which spearheaded the No campaign, will undoubtedly be strengthened by the landslide victory, as will the other groups which called for a No vote.

However, there's a peculiarity which means the win won't necessarily play into the hands of the M5S.

The proposed reforms were linked with Italy's electoral law, which gives the overall majority of seats to a party that gets 40 percent of the votes or wins in a run-off ballot – a system which would likely have benefited the populist M5S. But this law relied on the constitutional reforms being passed, and now that that's not happening, it must be changed before any election.

“The electoral system is likely to be updated in a way that does not favour the M5S,” Newall explained.

“Now, the party has taken an extraordinary position: they spent the whole campaign arguing against the electoral law, saying it concentrated too much power in the hands of the Prime Minister. Now they're calling for elections on the basis of that electoral law – because it gives them the best chance.”

Pavoncello added: “There's a difference between being able to master a protest vote and being able to offer an alternative government, and if they ever did win power, it's very likely that people would be rapidly disillusioned. Once you're in government, you have to make decisions which not everyone will agree with.”

Another big 'winner' from the No vote is local government, who continue to enjoy significant power: the proposed reforms would have seen much of this re-centralized.

READ MORE: What is Italy's Five Star Movement?

4. Should we be concerned about all this talk of political and financial turmoil?

While Renzi himself was firm throughout the referendum campaign that he didn't anticipate “any major disasters”  in the event of a victory for No, fears were raised of the problems that could be caused by an unstable government – including economic worries. On Monday, the euro briefly dropped to a 20-month low, but on the whole, market reaction has been subdued.

“The decisiveness of the result means we'll see less uncertainty than could have been expected if it had been closer,” said Newall. “It was a clear result, with a clear message: Business as usual.

“In financial and markets, I expect that a 'wait and see' attitude' will be dominant.”

5. What does this mean for Europe?

Not much – for the moment, at least.

There are two key reasons many observers have linked this referendum on a domestic issue to the EU. One is that Renzi is seen as having strong ties to Brussels, and the other is that the No campaign was spearheaded by the eurosceptic M5S, which has previously called for a referendum on Italy's membership of the euro (but not the EU).

However, not all of the support for No came from fans of the M5S, not all of the Movement's supporters share the party's eurosceptic stance, and as explained above, they're not necessarily likely to gain power in the near future.

“For the moment, there's no reason to be alarmed about the future of the EU,” said Newall. But whether that remains the case will depend on developments over the coming days, weeks and months.”

Pavoncello notes that the No vote encompassed pro-Europe groups alongside the eurosceptic M5S and Northern League, and emphasized that the M5S has toned down its commentary on Europe in recent weeks. “They have sent mixed messages about the EU since the Brexit vote. Plus, what they want is a referendum – they're not calling for Italy to leave the EU or even the euro,” he said.

Still, there are certainly anti-establishment aspects to the vote, and that includes disillusionment with the EU. The referendum result may act as a wake-up call for Europe to  pay more attention to Italy, which has been hard hit by both economic troubles and the migration crisis.

“The vote is a sign of dissatisfaction,” Pavoncello said. “People want Europe to step in and give more dynanism to the economy.”

6. How likely are new reforms?

The necessity of reforms in Italy is agreed upon by pretty much everyone, including those who were opposed to Renzi's proposals. But we're unlikely to see alternative reforms for a while.

Pavoncello said the country was “on standby” and that aside from the electoral reform, “I don't think we'll see any kind of dynanism or forces pushing for any kind of reforms now.

“Italy hasn't been able to reform for 70 years, it's very difficult to achieve.”

Newall agreed, pointing out that Italy will only be able to have “real reforms” if some kind of cross-party agreement can be reached.

Otherwise, Italy risks repeating the same situation it's just experienced: all the opposition groups coming together to reject any reforms posed by the party in power.

 

 

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POLITICS

How much control does Giorgia Meloni’s government have over Italian media?

There's been renewed debate over the state of press freedom in Italy following warnings that Meloni's administration is seeking "control" of Italy's media. But what's behind these reports?

How much control does Giorgia Meloni's government have over Italian media?

Press freedom is at the centre of fresh debate in Italy this week after Spanish newspaper El País on Saturday published an article titled “Meloni wants all the media power in Italy.”

The report, which was picked up by Italian newspaper La Repubblica, suggests that the Italian prime minister and her right-wing executive is looking to “monopolise” national print and broadcast outlets

It follows reports in English-language media recently describing how Meloni is accused of trying to stamp her authority on Italian arts and media in what critics call a “purge” of dissenting voices.

Meloni and members of her administration have long faced accusations of trying to silence journalists and intimidate detractors. Media organisations say this often takes the form of high-profile politicians bringing lawsuits against individual journalists, and cite the defamation case brought by Meloni against anti-mafia reporter Roberto Saviano in 2023 as a prime example.

READ ALSO: Six things to know about the state of press freedom in Italy

Discussions over media independence aren’t new in Italy, as the country has consistently ranked poorly in the annual Press Freedom reports by Reporters without Borders in recent years. Italy came in 41st out of 180 in the 2023 ranking, which made it the worst country in western Europe for press freedom.

But what’s behind the recent allegations that the government is trying to exert a more direct influence?

Meloni, Porta a Porta

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Italian national TV show Porta a Porta in Rome on April 4th 2024. Photo by Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP

National television

The article from El País accuses Meloni’s cabinet of effectively controlling Italy’s two biggest national broadcasters: state-owned RAI and commercial broadcaster Mediaset.

While Mediaset and its three main channels (Rete 4, Canale 5 and Italia 1) have long been seen as ‘loyal’ to Meloni’s executive – the network was founded by the late Silvio Berlusconi, whose Forza Italia party continues to be a key member of the ruling coalition – the government’s ties with public broadcaster RAI are more complex.

Unlike state-owned broadcasters in other European countries, RAI is not controlled by a regulatory body but rather by the government itself, which means that the network has always been particularly susceptible to political influences. 

But Meloni’s cabinet is accused of exerting unprecedented power over the broadcaster following the replacement of former top executives with figures considered closer to the government.

Salvini, RAI

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini speaks with Italian journalist Bruno Vespa during the talk show Porta a Porta, broadcast on Italian channel Rai 1. Photo by Andreas SOLARO / AFP

Last May, Carlo Fuortes resigned as RAI’s CEO saying that he couldn’t possibly “accept changes opposed to RAI’s interests”. He was replaced by centrist Roberto Sergio, who in turn appointed Giampaolo Rossi – a “loyalist” of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party – as the network’s general director. 

Sergio and Rossi’s appointment was closely followed by a general management reshuffle which saw figures close to the government occupy key positions within the company. This led to critics and journalists dubbing the network ‘TeleMeloni’.

Print media 

Besides concerns over its sway on Italy’s main broadcast networks, Meloni’s executive is currently under heavy scrutiny following the rumoured takeover of Italy’s AGI news agency by the right-wing Angelucci publishing group. 

The group is headed by Antonio Angelucci, an MP for Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini’s hard-right League party, and owner of three right-wing newspapers: Il Giornale, Libero and Il Tempo.

News of the potential takeover from Angelucci sparked a series of strikes and demonstrations from the news agency’s journalists in recent weeks, with reporters raising concerns over the independence and autonomy of journalists in the event of an ownership change.

The leader of the centre-left Democratic Party Elly Schlein weighed in on the matter last week, saying that the sale of Italy’s second-largest news agency to a ruling coalition MP would be “inadmissible”.

Further debate over press freedom in the country emerged in early March after three journalists from the left-wing Domani newspaper were accused of illegally accessing and publishing private data regarding a number of high-profile people, including Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, and the late Silvio Berlusconi’s girlfriend. 

The newspaper has so far condemned the investigation, saying it is “a warning to Domani and all journalists” and a further threat to media independence in a country ranked amongst the worst in Europe for press freedom.

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