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POLITICS

Fresh elections almost certain but will results be different?

Barring a last-minute twist, Spaniards are set to go to the polls again in June just months after they voted a first time - and for some parties, the campaign appears to have started already.

Fresh elections almost certain but will results be different?
Spain could be going back to the polls in June. Photo: AFP

Parties have in vain tried to agree on a coalition government since December elections resulted in a hung parliament divided among four main groupings, none of them with enough seats to govern alone, as voters fed up with austerity, unemployment and corruption flocked to upstarts.

King Felipe VI will hold talks with party leaders next week in a last-ditch bid to get them to form a coalition, but if that fails, it is all but certain that fresh polls will be called for June 26th as the timeframe to form a government draws to a close.

Already this week, acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appeared to be knee-deep in electioneering when he paid a visit to a village deep in the central arid region of La Mancha, surrounded by a crowd of 60-something residents, taking photos with those who asked him.

'Electioneering'

Cosying up to Spain's rural and ageing population – key supporters of his conservative Popular Party (PP), which came first in December's elections but without an absolute majority – he told the villagers they had “the same rights” as city dwellers.

His caretaker government also announced it would pay out the second part of a bonus for civil servants that had been frozen during the crisis, in direct contradiction with its promise to save money after overshooting its public deficit target last year.

“Electioneering”, shouted his opponents and the centre-right daily El Mundo, pointing out that the first half of this frozen bonus had been paid out by the PP shortly before December's elections.


The four party leaders are already preparing for another election. Photo: AFP

In the meantime, far-left party Podemos – which came third in the polls – announced it was organising a spring party Sunday in a Madrid park “with activities for kids, concerts, cycling, a picnic and a load of surprises.”  

A high-level member of the Socialist party, which came second in the elections, said he was “99.9 percent sure” that new polls would be held.

Led by Pedro Sanchez, the Socialists had been tasked by the king with forming a government after Rajoy pulled out for lack of support.

He reached a deal for a government with centrist upstart Ciudadanos – but this did not give both parties enough seats to get a majority in parliament for the necessary vote-of-confidence.

So Sanchez tried to reach an agreement with Podemos, whose 65 parliamentary seats would have got it through, but failed.    

Polls predict that if new elections are held, the results will be similar to those of December.

The PP is seen as coming in first again, and the Socialists second with Sanchez at its head.

Podemos may lose votes, though, as some of the five million people who backed the anti-austerity party last time accuse it of blocking the formation of a left-wing government to chase away the conservatives, in power since 2011.

Far-left alliance?

Rajoy is expected to remain the PP's candidate despite calls for him to step down following a series of corruption scandals that have hit his party in recent months.

“The only possible people who could replace him are very loyal to him,” a PP lawmaker told AFP, wishing to remain anonymous, adding that the party may even do better than in December if fewer young voters cast their ballot, disappointed by Podemos.

“That's good for us,” he said.    

To remedy this possible scenario, Podemos could forge an alliance with Izquierda Unida, a communist-green party that got 800,000 votes in December.  

“There is a willingness to negotiate… to see what the options are,” Podemos lawmaker Pablo Bustinduy told reporters this week.  

The aim would be to surpass the Socialists in new elections, giving Podemos even more influence than it gained in December.

By Michaela Cancela-Kieffer and Anna Cuenca

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POLITICS

What happens and who takes over if Spain’s Prime Minister resigns?

Pedro Sánchez will soon announce whether he’ll step down as Spanish PM amid a corruption probe involving his wife. What happens if he resigns? Who would be Spain’s next Prime Minister? And would there be new elections? 

What happens and who takes over if Spain's Prime Minister resigns?

Sánchez has decided to take a break from his agenda until Monday April 29th to reflect on his continuity in office after a Madrid court “opened an investigation into Begoña Gómez (Sánchez’s wife) for the alleged offence of influence peddling and corruption”.

This came in response to a complaint by Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), an anti-corruption pressure group whose leader is linked to the far right.

“I need to stop and think” in order to decide “whether I should continue to head the government or whether I should give up this honour,” Sánchez wrote in a letter posted on X, formerly Twitter.

READ MORE: Spain’s PM may quit over wife’s corruption probe

The 52-year-old leader stressed he has no “attachment to the position” of PM and that he needs to assess whether it is worth staying in the premiership, alleging a smear campaign, or “strategy of harassment and demolition”, against him and his wife Begoña Gómez.

So what happens if on April 29th Pedro Sánchez announces he’s stepping down as Prime Minister of Spain?

What happens next if Sánchez quits?

Article 101 of the Spanish Constitution covers scenarios such as the resignation or death of the Prime Minister, as well as motions of no confidence.

The resignation of el Presidente del Gobierno would mean that the entire Cabinet or Council of Ministers would continue in office until a new PM was appointed.

However, the ruling left-wing coalition government would be limited in its powers, without the capacity to legislate.

Who would be Spain’s next Prime Minister and who chooses him/her?

Even though Spain has three Deputy Prime Ministers (María Jesús Montero, Yolanda Díaz and Teresa Ribera), none of them would automatically become Prime Minister if Sánchez resigned.  

The Spanish Parliament (El Congreso) would be in charge of electing the new Prime Minister in a process identical to that of the investitures held after a general election (which Sánchez used to reach power in 2023).

First, King Felipe VI would hold a round of consultations with the spokespersons of Spain’s political parties represented in the Lower House, and after listening to their arguments, he would designate a candidate.

Then, the candidate designated by the Spanish king to succeed Pedro Sánchez would undergo an investiture debate and to be elected he or she would have to receive the support of the absolute majority of the Parliament in the first vote or more yeses than noes in the second.

sanchez resignation spain

There is no automatic successor to Pedro Sánchez if he decides to resign as Spain’s Prime Minister. (Photo by ANDER GILLENEA / AFP)

As an example of this happening, in 1981 Spain’s first democratically elected PM Adolfo Suárez resigned. His party, UCD, proposed Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo as his successor, and after an investiture debate, interrupted in its voting by the attempted coup d’état of 23F, he was elected Spain’s next Prime Minister by the Spanish Parliament.

If the candidate fails to be invested, a period of two months would begin in which new candidates proposed by King Felipe could run for the premiership. 

If after these two months no candidate achieved parliamentary support, the Spanish courts would automatically be dissolved and a new general election would be called.

Can Pedro Sánchez call another general election straight after resigning?

According to article 115.3 of the Spanish Constitution, 365 days must pass between one general election and another. Therefore, Sánchez could not order the judicial dissolution and by default another general election yet. 

The earliest date for a hypothetical electoral call would be May 30th, exactly a year after the 2023 general elections were announced.

Fifty-four days must pass between the announcement of a new general election and Spaniards going to the polls, which would mean that in this hypothetical situation Spain’s sixth general election in nine years would take place in late July. 

Could Sánchez opt for another option other than resigning?

It’s unclear why Sánchez – a risk-taker whose political gambles have largely paid off – appears to have caved in this time to the ongoing discrediting campaigns from Spain’s right-wing opposition.

Let’s not forget the weeks of protests in 2023 and early 2024 outside the Socialists’ headquarters in numerous cities against the controversial amnesty law he supported, all of which called on Sánchez to resign.

Political commentators in the Spanish Parliament on Wednesday described Sánchez as “bruised” by the investigation into his wife Begoña Gómez’s alleged influence peddling and corruption. 

But if on Monday April 29th he does not announce that he will be staying in his post, does he have any other options other than resigning?

Sánchez could call a motion of confidence. This is a political tool available to Spanish Prime Ministers in order to confront a situation of weakness in the face of the Parliament that elected him.

Article 112 of the Spanish Constitution establishes that the Prime Minister, after deliberation by the Cabinet or Council of Ministers, may raise before the Parliament the motion of confidence. 

Confidence in his premiership will be granted when the simple majority of Spanish MPs vote in favour of it.

Could this be yet another political gamble by Sánchez? A way to silence detractors in an official manner?

On Wednesday, Sánchez did say that  “despite everything, I still believe in Spain’s justice system.”

If Sánchez did not obtain the confidence of Parliament, it would be the same as if he had resigned and the process to choose a new Prime Minister through an investiture would begin.

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